Cooling Down Late Next Week
Here's the 850mb temp anomaly from Sunday to Saturday of next weekend. Temps appear to be fairly warm through Tuesday, but there appears to be a decent cooldown as we get to Wednesday and beyond. Temps later in the week will likely be below average for many.
Extended Temperature Outlook
Here's the NBM extended temperature forecast for Minneapolis, which shows mild temps in place through Tuesday before the bottom falls out a bit later in the week with highs only warming into the 60s. It also appears that we could see an extended period of cooler temps into the last week of September. Stay tuned!
Fall Color Update
It's that time of the year again for fall colors and the MN DNR has their fall color finder up and running. Much of the state is still color free, but there are a few colors popping up here and there.
Average Fall Color
The MN DNR has put together a nice graphic that shows typical dates for peak fall color. The northern par of the state starts to peak during the 2nd half of September into early October. Meanwhile, folks in the central part of the state and into the metro typically don't see peak color until the end of September into the middle part of October. It won't be long now - enjoy!
Average First Frost For MSP
Here's the 30 year average for the first frost in Minneapolis, which lands on October 13th. Last year (2021) the first frost was on October 23rd. If you look at the full MSP record, which dates back to 1873, the latest frost was November 18th back in 2016, while the earliest frost was September 3rd back in 1974.
First Measurable Snow at MSP
Here's the average first measurable snowfall (0.01") at MSP over the last 30 years, which lands on November 6th. Last year, MSP had its first measurable snow on November 13th. The last was on December 3rd back in 1928, while the earliest was September 24th in 1985.
Mix of Sunshine & Spotty T-Storms
Here's the weather outlook from AM Sunday to AM Saturday. Weather conditions could be a little unsettled at times over the next few days, but it won't be too widespread at any point.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook shows areas of heavier rainfall across parts of the Arrowhead and into Wisconsin. Lighter amounts will be possible farther south and west.
Minnesota Drought Update
Here's the latest drought update across Minnesota. As of September 13th, we still have a sliver of moderate and severe drought conditions stretching from the Twin Cities Metro to the Minnesota River Valley.
Weather Outlook on Sunday
The weather outlook on Sunday shows lingering showers across the Arrowhead and into Wisconsin, while drier weather will be found a little farther west. Temps will warm into the 60s and 70s, which will be a little above average for mid September.
Weather Outlook Sunday
The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Sunday shows lingering clouds through the first half of the day with temps warming into the mid 70s by the afternoon. Winds will be out of the WNW around 5mph-10mph.
More Humid Next Few Days
The extended weather outlook over the new days shows sticky dewpoints in the 60s through early next week. By Wednesday and Thursday, we'll not only see cooler temps, but dewpoints will start to drop as well!
Meteograms for Minneapolis
The hourly forecast for Minneapolis on Sunday shows temps starting in the mid 60s in the morning with highs topping out in the mid 70s in the afternoon. Cloudier skies will linger during the first half of the day with more sunshine expected in the afternoon. WNW winds will gust to near 10mph-15mph through the day.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows readings running well above average by nearly +5F to +15F through Tuesday. A front moves through Wednesday with much cooler temps in place later in the week. In fact, highs in the 60s will be nearly -10F below average for a change.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows warm temperatures in place through Tuesday before a few t-showers and cooler temps move in later next week. Note that temps could dip into the 60s with overnight lows in the 40s by Thursday and Friday.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
According to the ECMWF extended temperature outlook, readings will still be fairly mild through the first part of the week, but it'll cool down quite a bit as we approach the end of the week and end of the month.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows above average temps continuing across much of the southern and western US.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows dry weather in place across much of the northern tier of the nation and the Central US.
Tracking Fiona
Tropical Alerts
Tracking Fiona
Heavy Rainfall From Fiona
Activity in the Atlantic
As of late Friday, Tropical Storm Fiona was moving into the northeastern Caribbean. Tropical storm watches and warnings have been posted from the Leeward Islands to the Dominican.
Extended Outlook Calls For A Real Cold Front
By Paul Douglas
In 8 days it may be just cold enough for a few sloppy snowflakes mixing in with rain showers over the Minnesota Arrowhead. Isn't that great news! Every winter we catch a cold, both literally and figuratively.
Summers are a revolving door of visiting friends and family, checking out our lakes, the arts and festivals. We get very few visitors in January, which is a shame, because winter brings it's own form of cold, crystalline beauty. Some of us are shivering too much to notice.
Welcome to a fine Sunday with blue sky, 70s and a drop in humidity. One more warm frontal passage boosts temperatures into the 80s Tuesday before a big Canadian burp of cooler air treats us to 60s later in the week. Hoodie weather is coming.
Long range models bring the first Alberta Clippers of fall into town in a little in about a week. I expect rain showers in the metro in 8 days with flaky possibilities near Ely. Too soon?
Deep breaths. This is just the first wintry shot across the bow. We'll see more 70s, even a few more 80s.
Extended Forecast
SUNDAY: Partly sunny, pleasant. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 75.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear & quiet. Winds: WNW 5. Low: 59.
MONDAY: Plenty of sunshine. Winds: SE 7-12. High: 79.
TUESDAY: Warm sun, still shorts-worthy. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 64. High: 87.
WEDNESDAY: More clouds, cooler wind kicks in. Winds: NW 15-30. Wake-up: 50. High: 62.
THURSDAY: Cool sunshine, feels like fall. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 50. High: 62.
FRIDAY: Chance of showers. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 46. High: 67.
SATURDAY: Intervals of sun, comfortable. Winds: W 10-20. Wake-up: 53. High: 75.
This Day in Weather History
September 18th
1997: An F3 tornado destroys several buildings and damages numerous others. Hundreds of trees are knocked down. A number of cattle are also killed in a collapsed barn. One man is injured when the tornado engulfs his car and throws it into a nearby woods. A second man is critically injured when his garage collapses, then dies several weeks later. The total path length of the tornado from 1 NE of Lastrup to Onamia is 17 miles. Total property damage is estimated at $1.7 million. In total, 6 tornadoes touch down in Morrison, Mille Lacs, and Kanabec.
1991: Duluth gets 2.5 inches of snow five days before the beginning of Fall.
1971: A brush fire at Lake Alexander in Morrison County spawns a 10-foot wide, 50-foot high 'fire whirl.' It moved out over the lake, overturned a 1,800 pound pontoon boat, and then dissipated as it moved back to shore.
1903: 3.75 inches of rain falls in the Minneapolis area.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
September 18th
Average High: 72F (Record: 93F set in 1891)
Average Low: 53F (Record: 32F set in 1929)
Record Rainfall: 3.75" set in 1905
Record Snowfall: None
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
September 18th
Sunrise: 6:55am
Sunset: 7:18pm
Hours of Daylight: ~12 hours & 22 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 3 minutes & 6 seconds
Daylight LOST since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 3 hour & 16 minutes
Moon Phase for September 18th at Midnight
1.4 Days After Last Quarter Moon
National High Temps Sunday
The weather outlook on Sunday shows warmer than average temps returning to much of the nation. Heat will build in the Central US/Plains through the middle part of next week with record highs likely.
National Weather Outlook Sunday
Showers and storms will move into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, some of which could be strong to severe with locally heavy rain. Areas of rain will also move into California with high elevation rain & snow showers.
National Weather Outlook
Here's the weather outlook through Tuesday with areas of showers and storms moving through the Great Lakes and the Northeast. A storm system will move into the Western US with areas of heavy precipitation in California.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavier precipitation will continue across Florida with localized flooding possible. There will also be decent rainfall amounts through California, Intermountain-West and also closer to Lake Superior.
Climate Stories
"What Charles the 'Activist King' Means for the Climate"
"I REMEMBER YEARS ago, in the '60s, when I was a teenager, minding so much about all the things that were going on, the destruction of everything. The uprooting of trees and hedgerows and draining of wet places … this sort of white heat of progress and technology, to the exclusion of nature … this complete determination, somehow, to defeat nature." These aren't the words of your typical environmental activist, but of King Charles III, as he reflected several years ago on his commitment to preserving the natural world. The video clip marked half a century of the new king's climate activism, a career that began with a 1970 speech calling for changes in how we treat the environment, at a time when the idea of global warming—or even the notion that cutting down trees might be a bad idea—was a fringe belief at best."
"10 easy ways you can tell for yourself that the Earth is not flat"
"Humanity has known Earth is round for a few millenia, and I've been meaning to show more methods that prove the world is not flat. I've had a few ideas on how to do that, but recently got an interesting incentive, when Phil Plait, The Bad Astronomer, wrote about a recently published BBC article about "The Flat Earth" society. (Most recently, rapper B.o.B. went on a Twitter rant on the topic.) Phil claims it's ridiculous to even bother rebutting the Flat Earth Society—and I tend to agree. But the history of our species' intellectual pursuit is important and interesting. You don't need to denounce all science and knowledge and believe in a kooky conspiracy theory to enjoy some historical factoids about humanity's quest for space."
"How to Pack a Go Bag for Climate Disasters"
"Climate change-fueled natural disasters, from wildfires to floods, are affecting more Americans every year. Many people are caught off guard by emergencies in their communities, but there are ways to prepare that can help you protect your life and health when the worst happens. One way crucial step is to have an emergency go bag, or go kit. This is typically a backpack or duffle bag that is filled with essentials for staying safe if you have to quickly leave your home. These bags usually include small first aid kits, water, personal hygiene items, batteries, a radio, flashlights, copies of important documents, and nonperishable food. Some companies sell ready-made go bags that include a lot of these essentials, like this one on Amazon or this family go bag. Many of these ready-made kits hold enough supplies for 48 to 72 hours, and they range in price from about $50 for one person to more than $300 for a family."
