Drought Worsens - Showers For Southern Minnesota Friday

It was certainly a crisp Thursday morning across portions of the state, with some areas of frost in northern Minnesota as they dipped into the 30s. Hibbing broke their record low for the day reaching 34F - the previous record being 37F in 2015. Meanwhile, Brimson dropped to 30F!

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As we roll into the last day of the work week, we will see a mix of sun and clouds with a few showers across southern Minnesota, potentially in the Twin Cities as well - though I do think most of the rain will fall south of the metro. Morning lows will be in the low 60s with afternoon highs in the upper 70s.

Looking statewide, you see those rain icons across southern Minnesota for Friday with sunnier skies as you head north. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s across the state - below average in central and southern Minnesota, but above average in northern Minnesota.

Again, the best chance of seeing rain will be across southern Minnesota, mainly along and south of the Minnesota River, during your Friday. The loop above shows simulated radar between 7 AM and 7 PM Friday.

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It should be a dry and fairly sunny weekend in the Twin Cities. I can't rule out an isolated shower on Saturday, mainly across far southern Minnesota, but that could lead to a few more clouds at least for the first half of the weekend. We will see slowly warming temperatures through the weekend and into early next week, and by mid-next week highs could be back up around 90F once again.

Even though some portions of the state did receive some heavy, beneficial rain earlier this week, the drought situation continues to deteriorate across the state. The cutoff for data for the Drought Monitor is 7 AM CT Tuesday, so most of that rain actually isn't even factored into the update for this week. As of the Thursday update, 93% of Minnesota is in moderate drought, and 39.7% is in severe drought - both numbers up from the previous week.

Over the past 90 days, most areas of the state are running up to 7" below average.

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Drought Worsens - Showers For Southern MN Today
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas

The drought situation continues to deteriorate across the state. The latest Drought Monitor that was released on Thursday showed that 39.7% of Minnesota is now under severe drought (category 2 of 4) - up from 11.1% last week. While we did see that heavier rain for some earlier in the week, most of it fell after the Tuesday morning data cutoff, so it won't be factored in until next week.

I don't complain about cooler temperatures in the summer, and I personally have found our recent cooler weather quite refreshing! Hibbing set a record low of 34F Thursday morning. Meanwhile, Brimson dipped below freezing to 30F. This cool weather won't stick around with highs back up around 90F by the middle of next week.

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D.J.'s Extended Twin Cities Forecast

FRIDAY: Southern MN rain. Wake up 61. High 79. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

SATURDAY: Far southern MN shower possible. Wake up 62. High 82. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind E 5-10 mph.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. An isolated shower? Wake up 64. High 86. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind E 5-10 mph.

TUESDAY: Blue skies. Increasing humidity. Wake up 65. High 88. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: A few showers and thunderstorms. Wake up 68. High 88. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.

THURSDAY: Mix of sun and clouds. Wake up 68. High 87. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind W 5-10 mph.

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*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 24 minutes and 20 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 1 minute and 16 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 15 Hours Of Daylight? July 24th (14 hours, 58 minutes, and 22 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/After 6 AM?: August 2nd (6:00 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/Before 8:30 PM?: August 7th (8:30 PM)

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This Day in Weather History
July 9th

1932: A tornado touches down near Springfield and moves into St. James, causing 500 thousand dollars in damage.

On Friday, Elsa will continue to move near the Northeast/New England states, bringing strong winds and heavy rain. Heavy rain will continue with an area of low pressure in southern Texas. Showers and storms will also be expected across the Southeast, Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest.

We are tracking three areas of heavy rain over the next few days. First, the 3"+ possible from the Mid-Atlantic to New England is along the track of Elsa through the end of the week as the system accelerates off to the northeast. Across southern Texas, a system that has barely moved has been producing heavy rain and could produce at least another 3-6" from Thursday into Friday. In the upper Midwest, heavy rain is expected to fall Friday and Friday Night due to multiple rounds of storms.

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Praedictix Corporate Weather Briefing: Thursday morning, July 8th, 2021

Tropical Storm Elsa. Elsa has continued to move inland across the Southeast after landfall midday yesterday in Florida, and this morning is bringing heavy rain across the Carolinas. As of the 8 AM ET update from the National Hurricane Center, the center of Elsa was located about 45 miles west of Florence, SC, or 150 miles southwest of Raleigh, NC, and moving northeast at 18 mph. Elsa had sustained winds of 40 mph, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward 115 miles from the center, mainly over the Atlantic to the southeast of the center. A recent report from the Myrtle Beach airport had sustained winds of 41 mph with gusts to 54 mph.

Tropical Storm Alerts. As tropical storm conditions are expected in the Eastern United States with Elsa, particularly along the coast, Tropical Storm Warnings are in place this morning. As of 8 AM ET, here are the Tropical Storm Warnings in place:

* South Santee River, South Carolina, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island

* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach

* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

Strong Winds. We are still expecting tropical-storm-force winds in association with Elsa the next couple of days, especially along and near the coast. These stronger winds will be possible along the South Carolina coast through the morning hours, and along the North Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts later today. They will be possible across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern coasts Friday and Friday Night. In some areas – especially in eastern North Carolina and along Cape Cod – wind gusts above 40 mph will be possible.

Rainfall Potential. Rain, heavy at times, will continue across the Eastern United States the next couple of days as Elsa passes through the region. Across the track of Elsa, the following rainfall totals can be expected:

These rainfall amounts could lead to flash and urban flooding across the region as well as river flooding. Flood Watches stretch from the Carolinas to southern Maine this morning due to the heavy tropical rain threat.

Tornado Watch. Tropical systems typically are accompanied by tornadoes. A Tornado Watch is in place through 9 AM ET for portions of North and South Carolina, including Myrtle Beach and Wilmington.

Southern Texas Flood Threat. Separate from Elsa, we have been watching heavy rain and flooding occurring across portions of southern Texas and the Texas Gulf Coast. Yesterday we did see a Flash Flood Emergency for the Rockport and Fulton areas as very heavy rain had led to life-threatening flash flooding. Up to 14" of rain has already fallen in spots over the past few days with the system that is in place across the region, and heavy rain will continue to fall today across the region. Flash Flood Watches are in place, and there is a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rain that would lead to flash flooding.

Potential Rainfall Amounts. At least an additional 2-6" of rain could fall over the next couple of days along the Texas coast, which will likely lead to more flooding across the region.

D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix

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July 2021 ENSO update: La Niña Watch

Once a Rich Desert River, the Gila Struggles to Keep Flowing

More from Yale Environment 360: "The confluence of the tiny San Pedro River and the much larger Gila was once one of the richest locales in one of the most productive river ecosystems in the American Southwest, an incomparable oasis of biodiversity. The rivers frequently flooded their banks, a life-giving pulse that created sprawling riverside cienegas, or fertile wetlands; braided and beaver-dammed channels; meandering oxbows; and bosques — riparian habitats with towering cottonwoods, mesquite and willows. This lush, wet Arizona landscape, combined with the searing heat of the Sonoran Desert, gave rise to a vast array of insects, fish and wildlife, including apex predators such as Mexican wolves, grizzly bears, jaguars and cougars, which prowled the river corridors. The confluence now is a very different place, its richness long diminished."

Pacific north-west heatwave shows climate is heading into 'uncharted territory'

More from Carbon Brief: "The deadly heatwave that hit north-western US and Canada in late June would have been "virtually impossible" without human-caused global warming, a new "rapid-attribution" study finds. The event, which saw temperature records shattered by as much as 5C, has been linked to hundreds of deaths in the Pacific north-west region. The heatwave was "so extreme" that the observed temperatures "lie far outside the range" of historical observations, the researchers say. Their assessment suggests that the heatwave was around a one-in-1,000-year event in today's climate – and was made at least 150-times more likely because of climate change. The analysis also finds that, if global warming were to hit 2C, a heatwave as extreme as seen last month would "occur roughly every five to 10 years" in the region."

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- D.J. Kayser