Drizzle/Freezing Drizzle Into Saturday - Impactful Storm Expected Next Week

Heavy Snow Across Southern Minnesota

A band of very heavy snow fell near the Minnesota/Iowa border through the overnight hours, with some impressive totals being reported. The top Minnesota total was 10.3" in Dexter. Other totals included 9.5" in Spring Valley and in Preston and 9" in Harmony.

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Drizzle/Freezing Drizzle Saturday

After the snow across southern Minnesota Friday morning, we'll be watching another (weaker) system moving across the state Friday Night into Saturday. While up across northern Minnesota we'll see precipitation start and end as some freezing drizzle with snow in between, farther south (including the metro) we'll see it start as some freezing drizzle or light snow flakes, becoming drizzle into the afternoon. Any of this freezing drizzle across the region could lead to slick roadways.

The heaviest snow will be across the North Shore, where at least 1-4" of snow could fall. A wide area of icing up to 0.1" will be possible across the state, leading to slick roads.

So we'll watching a mix of light precipitation move through as we head through the day here in the metro - more likely as some freezing drizzle or flurries in the early morning with temperatures in the low 30s, but in the form of drizzle with any later day precipitation as highs climb into the mid-30s.

As we watch that wintry precipitation move across the state on Saturday, highs will generally be in the 30s - several degrees above average.

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Drier But Cloudy Sunday

Dry weather is expected then as we head into Sunday with cloudy skies and highs generally in the low to mid-30s across the state.

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Impactful Storm Still In The Cards Next Week

Forecast loop: 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM Thursday.

We continue to watch a system that will bring major impacts to the region as we head through the middle of next week. There are likely to be waves of heavier precipitation moving through in the Tuesday through Thursday time frame as an area of low pressure slowly moves through the upper Midwest. There are still uncertainties in the models:

The European (shown above) shows a more northern track of the storm, bringing more chances of rain and/or ice to central and southern Minnesota before changing over to snow, with heavy snow for northern Minnesota.
The American model has trended more south over the past day, which would lead to more snow than rain/ice in southern Minnesota with higher snow totals in these areas, and not as heavy of snow totals up in northern parts of the state.

Right now I would be leaning more toward the European model (heavy snow up north, with the changeover zone between rain/ice/snow over southern Minnesota), but things can easily change in the next few days. This system will have a lot of moisture to work with, so snow totals of at least 6-12" will be possible wherever the heavy snow sets up. We will also have to watch the potential of at least 0.1" to 0.25" of freezing rain in western/southwestern Minnesota. Stay tuned for the very latest as we get closer to this storm impacting the region.

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Slush and Drizzle Today - Sloppy Mix Next Week
By Paul Douglas

I trust the scientific method and have faith in something more. The two are not mutually incompatible. Science is a messy process; our understanding of the world changes with time. In the words of United Nations diplomat Mohamad Safa: "Science is not truth. Science is finding the truth. When science changes its opinion it didn't lie to you. It learned more." That sounds about right.

Expect snowfall predictions to change a dozen times between now and the next (big) storm, scheduled to arrive with snow, ice and rain by the middle of next week. It's too early to count up expected inches, but a surge of warmer, drier air aloft will probably keep snowfall totals down in the metro, where rain may fall much of Tuesday night and Wednesday. Deeper into the cold air, Duluth and the North Shore could wind up with well over a foot of snow. Bring it on. MSP is experiencing the driest year to date since 1988.

30s each day with a sloppy thaw lingering into much of next week? That beats the arctic alternatives I guess.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SATURDAY: Drizzle, a little slush. Wake up 31. High 36. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy, peeks of sun? Wake up 27. High 35. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy, no travel headaches. Wake up 26. High 36. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 10-20 mph.

TUESDAY: Rain/snow mix late PM hours. Wake up 30. High 37. Chance of precipitation 90%. Wind E 15-30 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Metro rain. Heavy wet snow north. Wake up 33. High 38. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind NE 10-20 mph.

THURSDAY: Changeover to snow, couple inches? Wake up 32. High 34. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind N 10-20 mph.

FRIDAY: Flurries taper, slow clearing. Wake up 25. High 29. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind N 10-20 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
December 10th

*Length Of Day: 8 hours, 51 minutes, and 8 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 54 seconds

*Shortest Daylight Of The Year: December 21st (8 hours, 46 minutes, 10 seconds)
*Latest Sunrise: December 30th-January 5th (7:51 AM)
*Earliest Sunset: December 5th-December 13th (4:31 PM)

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This Day in Weather History
December 10th

1992: By this time there is partial ice cover in the Duluth harbor.

1979: A 'heat wave' develops across Minnesota. Highs of 54 at Twin Cities and 57 at Winona are recorded.

1978: Alexandria ends its fourteen day stretch of low temperatures at or below zero degrees Fahrenheit.

1889: A late season thunderstorm is observed at Maple Plain.

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National Weather Forecast

As we head through Saturday, a system in the western United States will produce showers, thunderstorms, and heavy higher elevation snow. Several different systems in the central/eastern United States will produce showers and storms from the Ohio Valley to the Deep South, and rain/snow chances in the Great Lakes region.

The heaviest rain and snow through the weekend will be out in the western United States, where feet of snow could accumulate (especially in the Sierra) and at least 3-5" of rain will be possible.

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NASA'S ICON Space Weather Satellite Has Suddenly Gone Silent

More from Gizmodo: "A three-year-old NASA satellite lost touch with ground controllers two weeks ago and is now wandering through low Earth orbit without supervision. Sadly, the space agency fears the worst. NASA's Ionospheric Connection Explorer (ICON) mission has not communicated with ground stations since November 25 due to some sort of glitch the space agency is yet to identify, NASA wrote in a blog post on Wednesday. The spacecraft is equipped with an onboard command loss timer that's designed to reset ICON in the event that contact is lost for eight days, but the reset seemingly did not work as the team was still unable to communicate with the spacecraft on December 5 after the power cycle was complete."

Twin Cities electric vehicle car-share program finds success after false start

More from Energy News Network: "A pioneering electric-vehicle car-sharing service in the Twin Cities saw steady growth during the first half of 2022, exceeding the expectations of backers during the program's first six months following a relaunch. Evie Community Carshare claimed to be the nation's first all-electric, renewably powered car-share service when it launched last year. It now has over 100 vehicles serving a 35-square-mile area of Minneapolis and St. Paul chosen for its high concentrations of poverty and pollution. "It's been a hit," said James Vierling, head of growth, marketing and communications for HourCar, which operates Evie. "We've been growing a lot faster than we thought we would." The service logged nearly 25,000 trips totaling almost a quarter million miles between February and July, reducing an estimated 741 metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions. It also helped members save an estimated $2.6 million on transportation, including about $850,000 for very low-income households."

Despite a Changing Climate, Americans Are 'Flocking to Fire'

More from Inside Climate News: "Despite an increase in wildfire risk spurred by climate change, Americans are moving to wildfire-prone areas and prioritizing lower housing costs and amenities such as temperate weather and recreational opportunities over risk of natural disasters. An analysis of U.S. migration data from the past decade published today, "Flocking to fire: How climate and natural hazards shape human migration across the United States," shows that Americans have been moving into certain "migration hot spots" in the West, Pacific Northwest and South that have high risk of wildfires, as well as to metro areas with high summer temperatures. The authors write that this "dangerous public health trend" is "increasing the number of people in harm's way," especially as both fires and heat waves increase in frequency due to climate change. Experts concerned about public safety in these high-risk population centers urge Americans to understand their environmental risks before moving."

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