Monday Weather Outlook

A quiet weather day is expected to start the shortened holiday work week here in the Twin Cities with a mix of sun and clouds. Morning temperatures will start off in the teens with highs barely climbing above freezing.

Highs across the state Monday will generally be in the 20s and 30s (with a few 40s possible out in western Minnesota) with that mix of sun and clouds statewide. Highs out in western Minnesota will be near average, but up to 12F degrees below average up in the Arrowhead.


Wind The Next Five Days

After a windy Sunday, winds will decrease once again heading into Monday with gusts only in the low teens. As a dry storm system moves into the upper Midwest in the mid-week time frame, winds will once again increase out of the south Tuesday and a good chunk of the day Wednesday before they change to come out of the northwest late Wednesday into Thanksgiving Thursday. In the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe, wind gusts over 20 mph are currently expected.


Temperature Trend

After the chilly day expected Monday, that system moving into the upper Midwest Tuesday and Wednesday will bring warmer air along with it. Highs on Tuesday could even top the low 50s in the metro! Temperatures on Wednesday are likely to reach their maximum during the early afternoon hours as a cold front moves through, bringing stronger northwest winds late in the afternoon hours and dropping temperatures. It'll be a chilly Thanksgiving as highs only reach the mid-20s... but with those stronger winds, it'll feel even cooler.


Thanksgiving Outlook

Quiet but cool weather is expected for Thanksgiving Day in the Twin Cities. As mentioned above, highs are only expected to reach the mid-20s, but temperatures through much of the day will stay in the low 20s. When you factor in a strong northwest wind of 10-15 mph, it'll feel more like the single digits and teens. Definitely not a day to have your Thanksgiving meal outside!


Chilly Monday - Windy November So Far
By D.J. Kayser, in for Paul Douglas

It's been a "hold on to your hat" type of month so far, with numerous windy days across the region. Luckily, we got a respite in the strong winds Saturday, but not so much Sunday. Through Saturday, half of the days so far in the month had wind gusts of at least 30 mph at MSP. Six of those days had wind gusts over 40 mph. For those wondering, the average windiest month of the year is April.

We get another little bit of a break in the wind today before a precipitation-starved system rolls in for Tuesday and Wednesday, kicking winds up a notch once again. Temperatures will be on a roller coaster during this stretch - barely making it above freezing today, 40s for Tuesday and Wednesday, and then staying below freezing Thanksgiving Thursday.

For those wanting some snow, there isn't much hope in the near term as the 6-10 day precipitation outlook shows below average chances across much of the state. The Twin Cities is already 3" below average in the snow department for the season. By this time last year, over 17" of snow had already fallen.


D.J.'s Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Wake up 16. High 33. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 3-8 mph.

TUESDAY: Clouds increase. Windy weather returns. Wake up 25. High 47. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy but no travel concerns. Wake up 37. High 46. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 10-15 mph.

THURSDAY: Fairly sunny but chilly Thanksgiving. Wake up 18. High 26. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.

FRIDAY: Lots of clouds. Wake up 15. High 31. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

SATURDAY: Plenty of blue skies. Wake up 23. High 34. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

SUNDAY: Warmer but cloudier. Wake up 26. High 39. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 5-10 mph.


Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
November 22nd

*Length Of Day: 9 hours, 17 minutes, and 29 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 2 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 9 Hours Of Daylight? December 3rd (8 hours, 58 minutes, and 44 seconds)
*Next Sunrise At Or After 7:30 AM: November 30th (7:30 AM)
*Earliest Sunsets Of The Year: 4:31 PM between December 5th and December 14th


This Day in Weather History
November 22nd

1996: Heavy snowfall accumulates over the same areas that were hit two days earlier. Four to seven inches of snowfall are reported across the area. Heavier snowfall occurred during the daylight hours of the 23rd. Snowfall totals of six inches were reported in the Twin Cities, Chanhassen, Stewart, St. James and Redwood Falls.

1970: Gale-driven snow falls across Minnesota. 45 mph winds are reported over Rochester and Duluth.


National Weather Forecast

A system in the eastern United States Monday will produce showers from the Gulf Coast to coastal New England, with some areas of rain and snow at higher elevations and areas of New England. Lake effect snow will also be possible in some areas downwind of the Great Lakes. Another system moving into the Northwest will produce rain and snow.

Some of the heaviest rain will occur across portions of southern Florida and Downeast Maine, where some totals of at least 1-3" will be possible. The heaviest snow will occur downwind of the Great Lakes and into the Cascades.


Cloud seeding gains steam as West faces worsening droughts

More from the Capital Weather Gang: "As the first winter storms rolled through this month, a King Air C90 turboprop aircraft contracted by the hydropower company Idaho Power took to the skies over southern Idaho to make it snow. Flying across the cloud tops, the aircraft dropped flares that burned up as they descended, releasing plumes of silver iodide that caused ice crystals to form and snow to fall over the mountains. In the spring, that snow will melt and run downstream, replenishing reservoirs, irrigating fields and potentially generating hundreds of thousands of additional megawatt hours of carbon-free hydropower for the state. Idaho Power, a private utility serving more than half a million customers in southern Idaho and eastern Oregon, has used cloud seeding to pad its hydroelectric power production for nearly two decades. But over the past few years, the utility has ramped up its snow-making efforts at the behest of state officials concerned about dwindling water supplies."

This Fall's Wildfires Claimed 3-5% Of The World's Giant Sequoias

More from National Parks Traveler: "Wildfires that seared Sequoia and Kings Canyon national parks and neighboring Sequoia National Forest this fall claimed between 3 percent and 5 percent of the world's giant sequoias, according to the National Park Service. In simple numbers, the losses fall between 2,261 and 3,637 mature sequoias with a diameter of at least four feet. The losses came from the KNP Complex, which burned mostly within the two national parks, and the Windy Fire, which burned mostly on the Sequoia National Forest, the Park Service announced Friday."

Warmer soil stores less carbon

More from the University of Exeter: "Scientists used data on more than 9,000 soil samples from around the world, and found that carbon storage "declines strongly" as average temperatures increase. This is an example of a "positive feedback", where global warming causes more carbon to be released into the atmosphere, further accelerating climate change. Importantly, the amount of carbon that could be released depends on the soil type, with coarse-textured (low-clay) soils losing three times as much carbon as fine-textured (clay-rich) soils. The researchers, from the University of Exeter and Stockholm University, say their findings help to identify vulnerable carbon stocks and provide an opportunity to improve Earth System Models (ESMs) that simulate future climate change."


Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser