Unprecedented Air Quality Concerns
AIR QUALITY ALERT NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 3 PM CDT TUESDAY. LONG DURATION AND UNPRECEDENTED SIGNIFICANT AIR QUALITY EVENT UNFOLDING ACROSS MINNESOTA.
* WHAT...The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency has issued an Air Quality Alert for fine particle pollution. The Air Quality Index (AQI) is expected to reach the Purple or Very Unhealthy category. This will be a long duration and unprecedented significant air quality event for Minnesota.
* WHERE...Central and south central Minnesota.
* WHEN...Through 3 PM CDT Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...The risk of health effects is increased for everyone.
Smoke from Canadian wildfires lingers over most of Minnesota. High pressure will build over the area for Sunday and remain over the area for Monday into Tuesday morning. Smoke will recirculate under the high pressure, leading to prolonged period of heavy smoke. Fine particle levels will begin to improve Tuesday as southerly winds start moving the smoke out of the state. Fine particle levels are expected to reach the Purple AQI category, a level considered very unhealthy for everyone, across north central and south central Minnesota. Fine particle levels are expected to reach the Red AQI category, a level considered unhealthy for everyone, across northern and central Minnesota.
Near Surface Smoke Forecast Midday Sunday
According to NOAA's HRRR model, it appears that the heaviest concentrations of near surface smoke will push south of the region on Sunday. This means we might have a little reprieve in the smoky haze closer to home with improved visibilities near the surface.
Drought Update
The US Drought Monitor released their latest drought update on Thursday, which suggested that drought conditions continue to deepen across the state. Last week, nearly 18% of the state was in an extreme drought, now nearly 22% is in an extreme drought. Severe drought conditions have expanded to 75% of the state, including the Twin Cities.
Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st
The map below shows precipitation departures from average since January 1st. Other than Wausau and Rhinelander, most locations are several inches below average since the beginning of the year. In fact, Minneapolis is at its 24th driest start to any year on record. Fargo is the 7th driest and Milwaukee 2nd driest.
Precipitation Potential Through Next Saturday
Here's the precipitation potential through next Saturday, which doesn't show much in the way of any appreciative rainfall across the region. As we head through the first full week of August, expect more mostly dry weather.
Sunday Weather Outlook
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Sunday shows cooler temps in place with highs only warming to near 80F. Also note that skies will remain smoky/hazy through much of the day, however, it might not be as bad has it was on Saturday.
Minneapolis Meteograms
The meteograms for Minneapolis on Sunday show temps warming from the mid 60F in the morning to near 80F by the afternoon. The day will remain dry with somewhat smoky/hazy conditions in place thanks to Canadian wildfires burning nearly 600 miles to our north. Winds will continue out of the north and could gust close to 20mph at times.
Regional Weather Outlook for Sunday
The weather outlook across the region on Sunday shows cooler than average temperatures in place for the first day of August. Temps will only warm into the 70s and low 80s, which will be nearly -5F below average. Most locations around the region will stay dry, but smoky/hazy conditions may be a problem in some spots.
Extended Weather Outlook for Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis shows a string of 80s continuing through the first full week of August. Note that we'll actually be a little below average through Monday, but temps will bump up to above average levels again later this week.
Weather Outlook Through Early Next Week
Here's the extended weather outlook through the middle part of the week, which shows mostly dry weather close to home for several days.
Regional Rainfall Potential Through 7PM Monday
Here's the rainfall potential through 7PM Monday, which shows the heaviest rains from over the weekend heading southeast into the Middle Mississippi Valley. Other than that, it doesn't look like much rain potential across the Upper Midwest over the next several days.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps continuing across much of northern two-thirds of the nation, including the Upper Midwest.
Air Quality Remains Dismal Into Tuesday
By Paul Douglas
"Welcome to Minnesota! Would you prefer to be seated in Smoking or Non-Smoking?" Peering up at a tired, cherry-red sun through a sky that resembles a dirty ashtray is getting old.
Yesterday little bits of ash fell out of a sky that would have felt right at home in Beijing or New Delhi. It looked like snow flurries. The result of Canadian fires a couple hundred miles upwind is the worst air quality on record, and yes, there's a climate connection. A warmer climate is drying out an already-arid western US. Fire season lasts 2 months longer, and wildfires have doubled since the 1980s, burning bigger, longer and hotter due to man-made warming.
August kicks off on a comfortable note today with murky sunshine, the state smelling like a campfire gone bad. Dry weather holds with only a slight opportunity for thunder by late week as temperatures approach 90.
It can always be worse. My Navy son is deployed in the Mideast. "Dad, every day I wake up to 105 degrees. The sunshine hurts your skin." Uffda, no thanks.
Extended Forecast
SUNDAY: Murky, smoky sun. Winds: N 10-15. High: 79.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Smoky haze continues. Winds: N 5-15. Low: 61.
MONDAY: A mix of sun, clouds and smoke. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 82.
TUESDAY: Better visibility, less smoke. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 63. High: 84.
WEDNESDAY: Plenty of hazy sunshine, heating up. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 65. High: 86.
THURSDAY: Some sun, chance of thunder. Winds: SW 10-15. Wake-up: 69. High: 85.
FRIDAY: Hot sunshine returns. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 68. High: 89.
SATURDAY: Stuffy with a passing T-shower. Winds: SW 15-25. Wake-up: 72. High: 92.
This Day in Weather History
August 1st
1955: A thunderstorm in Becker County dumps a foot of rain at Callaway.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
August 1st
Average High: 83F (Record: 101F set in 1988)
Average Low: 64F (Record: 49F set in 1962)
Record Rainfall: 2.03" set in 1975
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
July 27th
Sunrise: 5:59am
Sunset: 8:39pm
Hours of Daylight: ~14 hours & 40 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minute & 23 seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 20th): ~57 Minutes
Moon Phase for August 1st at Midnight
1.7 Days After Last Quarter Moon
What's in the Night Sky?
"Moon sweeps by Taurus As the moon orbits Earth, a waning crescent appears in the early morning sky every month. And it sweeps past whatever bright stars and planets happen to be in that part of the sky. Unless you're a night owl, you won't see the moon and constellation Taurus the Bull ascending in the east before your bedtime. But you will see them before the beginning of astronomical twilight on August 2, 3 and 4, 2021. On these mornings, the moon and stars of Taurus will climb highest up just before daybreak. The chart at top is designed for mid-northern North American latitudes. But the moon will be passing in front of Taurus on these dates as seen from around the world. Before dawn in the world's Eastern Hemisphere – Europe, Africa, Asia, Australia and New Zealand – look for the moon to be offset toward the previous date. The farther east you live, the greater the offset. On the morning of August 2, the moon will pass to the south of the Pleiades star cluster. The following day, August 3, will find the moon sweeping to the north of Aldebaran, the brightest star in Taurus. Aldebaran is a bright red star, part of a V-shaped pattern that represents the Bull's Face. Red Aldebaran represents the Bull's fiery Eye."
National High Temps Sunday
The weather outlook on Sunday shows below average temps in place across much of the Midwest. However, temps across the Gulf Coast States will be quite hot and humid, where feels like temps will approach 105F to 110F.
National Weather Outlook
The national weather outlook through the rest of the weekend and into early next week shows widespread showers and storms continuing in the Intermountain West with pockets of locally heavy rain. There will also be areas of heavy rain developing in the Southeast.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center areas of heavy rainfall will be possible in the Intermountain West and along the Front Range of the Rockies, but there will also be some heavy rains in the Southeast, where several inches of rain will be possible, which could lead to flash flood concerns.
Climate Stories
"National Weather Service to get more specific on severe thunderstorm warnings"
Starting next week, the National Weather Service will begin using more specific lingo to alert residents to the severity and potential impacts from thunderstorms — similar to tornado and flash-flood warnings. Why it matters: 13 of the 22 billion-dollar weather and climate events in the U.S. last year were severe thunderstorms. What to expect: Destructive: Baseball-sized hail and/or 80mph winds; will activate cell-phone alerts. Considerable: Golf-ball-sized hail and/or 70mph winds; no cell-phone alert. Baseline: Quarter-sized hail and/or 50mph winds; no threat tag means the storm is expected to be at or below base level.
"How summer 2021 has changed our understanding of extreme weather"
"A succession of record-breaking natural disasters have swept the globe in recent weeks. There have been serious floods in China and western Europe, heatwaves and drought in North America and wildfires in the sub-Arctic. An annual report on the UK's weather indicates extreme events are becoming commonplace in the country's once mild climate. August 2020 saw temperatures hit 34°C on six consecutive days across southern England, including five sticky nights where the mercury stayed above 20°C. In the future, British summers are likely to see temperatures greater than 40°C regularly, even if global warming is limited to 1.5°C. The Canadian national temperature record was shattered in June 2021 meanwhile, with 49.6°C recorded in Lytton, British Columbia – a town that was all but destroyed by wildfires a few days later."
See more from The Conversation HERE:
"Seeing snow for the first time at 62: Brazilians revel in icy snap"
"Temperatures dropped across Brazil on Thursday - with rare snowfall overnight in some places - as a polar air mass advanced toward the center-south of the global agricultural powerhouse, threatening coffee, sugarcane and orange crops with frost. Cars, streets and highways were blanketed in ice while people took the opportunity to take pictures and play in the snow, building snowmen. "I am 62 years old and had never seen the snow, you know? To see nature's beauty is something indescribable," said truck driver Iodor Goncalves Marques in Cambara do Sul, a municipality of Rio Grande do Sul state, speaking to TV Globo network. More than 40 cities in the state of Rio Grande do Sul had icy conditions and at least 33 municipalities had snow, reported the meteorology company Somar Meteorologia."
