Winter Storm Update
Some of the first winter weather headlines of the season continue into the first part of Tuesday mainly south and west of the Twin Cities. The heaviest snows from this system will be in Southwest Minnesota (mainly from Monday's snow) and also across southeast Minnesota, where a heavier surge of snow will impact the region during the day Tuesday.
Additional Snowfall Amounts
Here's a look at how much additional snow we could see across the region through Tuesday. Note that the heaviest will be southeast of the Twin Cities with nearly a 6" or more near La Crosse, WI.
More Active Week Ahead
A large storm system will sail southeast of the Twin Cities on Tuesday with heavy snow across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes through midweek. This storm will also whip up some fierce winds, so blowing snow will be possible, where the heaviest snows fall.
Heavy Snow Across the Midwest
Here's the snowfall potential through midweek, which shows a swath of very heavy snow falling across the Plains to the Midwest and into the Great Lakes with up to a foot of snow or more for some. A number of winter storm warnings have been issued in these areas with blowing snow and significant travel concerns likely.
An Arctic Plunge on the Way
Are you ready for winter? Take a look at the 850mb temp anomaly across the nation as we head through the next 7 to 10 days. Several storm systems moving across the nation will finally allow some Arctic air to funnel south into the Lower 48. This will be some of the coldest air of the season by far and it will also be some of the coldest air in the Midwest since February of last winter with daytime highs in the single digits and subzero overnight lows. Get ready!
Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI)
"Winter seasons have significant societal impacts across all sectors ranging from direct human health and mortality to commerce, transportation, and education. The question "How severe was this winter?" does not have a simple answer. At the very least, the severity of a winter is related to the intensity and persistence of cold weather, the amount of snow, and the amount and persistence of snow on the ground. The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) was developed to objectively quantify and describe the relative severity of the winter season."
It's probably no surprise, but most locations around the Midwest and Great Lakes have had a "Mild" winter so far. Again, we're still waiting for the other boot to drop, but being in an El Nino setup, a winter like last year is not really in the cards. The Midwest will likely see an overall warmer and less snowy winter.
"Mild" Winter So Far in for the Twin Cities
Here's a look at the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) for Minneapolis, MN so far this winter season. With a lack of cold temps and snow, it may be no surprise that we are currently sitting under a "Mild" winter rating so far.
Seasonal Snowfall So Far
The Twin Cities has only seen ~6" of snow this season, which is nearly -16.0" below normal snowfall, which is the 22nd least snowy starts to any season on record. With only ~12" of snow in Duluth, they are more than 2 feet below normal snowfall and good enough for the 19th least snowy starts to any season on record. Marquette, MI is nearly 56" below normal snowfall and currently sitting at the 4th least snowy start to any season on record.
Seasonal Snowfall Departure From Average
Looking around the region, no climate site has a surplus this season. The biggest deficits are around the Great Lakes, where we typically get lake effect snow, but with a lack of Arctic air, we haven't seen much in the way of heavy snow yet this season.
Twin Cities Average Snowfall
Depending on what 30-year average you look at, December is typically the 1st or 2nd snowiest month out of the year in the Twin Cities. If you look at the last 30 years 1993-2022, December averages 12.7" of snow and is the snowiest month of the year, followed by January with nearly 11" of snow.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Tuesday calls for a little light snow in the morning. It won't amount to much, but roads could be slippery in the morning, so take it easy and allow enough time to get to and from your destination. Skies will remain cloudy through the day with gusty north winds around midday and into the afternoon.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Temperatures in the Twin Cities on Wednesday won't move very much with readings hovering in the upper 20s and around 30F throughout the day. There could be a few peeks of sunshine in the afternoon, but much of the day will remain cloudy with gusty northerly winds around 15mph to 25mph.
Weather Outlook For Tuesday
The weather outlook for Tuesday will warm into the 10s and 20s for much of the state. We'll still be above average in the eastern half of the state, but we'll be at or slightly below average across the western half of the state.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis will still be warmer than average by nearly +5F to +10F through midweek with temps warming in the upper 20s and lower 30s. It'll get quite a bit colder late week and especially this weekend with temps going below average for the first time in a long time. No question, it'll feel like winter this weekend.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis over the next 7 days shows temps tumbling quite a bit as we head into the weekend and early next week. Highs on Sunday and Monday may only warm into the single digits with overnight lows in the sub-zero range. This will be some of the coldest air of the season and the coldest temperatures we've had since February last winter.
Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
Temps in the Twin Cities over the next several days will see a significant temperature drop. Readings will be MUCH colder as we approach the weekend and into early next week. Daytime highs may only warm into the single digits with overnight lows in the sub-zero range, which will be some of the coldest air in 11 months.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook, colder than average temperatures look to stick around across much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation and especially across the Midwest and Central US. Meanwhile, warmer than average temperatures will be found in the Southwestern US.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook shows more active weather across the Western US and into the Highs Plains. Meanwhile, quieter weather will settle in across the Central US.
A Real Arctic Front Is On The Way
By Paul Douglas
"If you don't know where you are going, you'll end up someplace else" said former baseball great Yogi Berra. My plan...is to create a PLAN. But build flexibility into my plans, especially during winter months.
Summer warmth brings T-storms and occasional flash floods, but you can generally get around without too much pain. Winter snow and ice throws a wrench into plans. Leaving more time to reach your destination and knowing when NOT to drive is an art form - one I'm still trying to figure out. Sometimes the best decision is to stay put.
Much colder air is coming, with 3 days of single digit highs and subzero lows early next week. The arrival of arctic exhaust will spark heavy snow from Iowa into southern Wisconsin. Maybe 2 feet for Milwaukee and a foot for Chicago by Saturday?
Snow tapers this morning with a few more inches Friday - the metro may see 3-4" totals by Saturday; more over southern Minnesota.
I'm a planner, but long ago I learned a truth: don't push the weather. Old Man Winter always bats last.
Extended Forecast
TUESDAY: Snow tapers. Slippery. Winds: N 15-25. High 31.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Breezy early. Winds: NNW 10-25. Low 22.
WEDNESDAY: More light snow by afternoon. Winds: SE 7-12. High 29.
THURSDAY: Light snow tapers to flurries. Winds: W 10-20. Wake-up: 21. High 27.
FRIDAY: Few inches of snow. Slick. Winds: NE 15-25. Wake-up: 22. High 25.
SATURDAY: Flurries linger, colder wind. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: 9. High 12.
SUNDAY: Some sun, feels like -15F. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: -4. High: 5.
MONDAY: A fine arctic breeze. Winds ease. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: -5. High: 6.
This Day in Weather History
January 9th
1982: Both January 9th and 10th would have some of the coldest windchills ever seen in Minnesota. Temperatures of -30 and winds of 40 mph were reported in Northern Minnesota. This would translate to windchills of -71 with the new windchill formula, and -100 with the old formula.
1934: A sleet and ice storm hits southwest Minnesota. Hardest hit locations were Slayton, Tracy and Pipestone. The thickest ice was just east of Pipestone with ice measuring 6 to 8 inches in diameter. At Holland in Pipestone County three strands of #6 wire measured 4.5 inches in diameter and weighed 33 ounces per foot. The ice was described as: 'Very peculiar information being practically round on three sides, the lower side being ragged projectiles like icicles: in other words pointed. The frost and ice were wet, not flaky like frost usually is. In handling this, it could be squeezed into a ball and did not crumble.'
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
January 9th
Average High: 24F (Record: 49F set in 2002 & 2012)
Average Low: 9F (Record: -32F set in 1977)
Record Rainfall: 0.31" set in 1924
Record Snowfall: 3.8" set in 1924
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
January 9th
Sunrise: 7:49am
Sunset: 4:50pm
Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 00 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: 1 Minutes & 23 Seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 14 minutes
Moon Phase for January 9th at Midnight
1.2 Days Before New Moon
Active Weather Map
The Watch, Warning and Advisory map looks very active across the nation. Note that there is only 1 state that doesn't have some type of weather headline and that is North Dakota. There will be significant winds across the eastern half of the nation with blizzard conditions possible from the Front Range to the Great Lakes. Areas of heavy rain and flooding will be possible in the Northeast. There will also be some severe weather across the Southern and Southeastern US, including the potential of tornadoes.
Severe Threat on Tuesday
According to NOAA's SPC, there is an ENHANCED risk of severe thunderstorms across the Southeastern US on Tuesday with an elevated risk of damaging winds and even tornadoes.
National High Temps on Tuesday
The weather outlook on Tuesday looks fairly mild across much of the Eastern US with temps running nearly +15F above average across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This is where areas of thunderstorms and heavy rain will be found. There will be areas of heavy snow developing in the Midwest and Great Lakes region with lots of wind, blowing snow and possibly some near white-out conditions in spots.
National Weather Outlook For Tuesday
The National Weather Outlook on Tuesday will be very active across the Eastern US with a large-scale storm in place. Areas of heavy snow will be found from the Midwest to the Great Lakes with areas of rain, snow and ice a little farther south. The Southeastern US will be under the gun for the potential of severe weather chances, including damaging winds and tornadoes. Another big storm will be the threat of flooding in the Northeast.
National Weather Outlook
The National Weather outlook through Wednesday shows a significant storm system moving across the Eastern US with wide-spread effect front heavy snow to flooding rains and severe thunderstorms. There will also be quite a bit of wind associated with this storm, which will impact many in the Eastern US through midweek. There will be another surge of heavy coastal rains and snow in the Western US through midweek.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation moving through the Eastern US through the midweek time period. There will also be some fairly significant precipitation across the western and northwestern US.
Extended Snowfall Outlook
According to the ECMWF weather model, Areas of heavy snow will continue across much of the nation. Some of the heaviest tallies will be found in the high elevations in the Western US, but there will be some fairly significant amounts through the Central US into the Great Lakes and also across the Northern New England States.
Climate Stories
"A snowless winter takes its toll on Minnesota's way of life"
"Bethany Hway thought that she had decades of snowy winters from the past on her side. Hway, founder of the Klondike Dog Derby in Excelsior, pored over years of snow and ice data as she and others planned this year's race around Lake Minnetonka. But on Wednesday, a month before 35 teams of mushers were scheduled to hit the course, they canceled. The day before, organizers of the John Beargrease Sled Dog Marathon in Duluth did the same. The problem? No snow. Too little ice. "We're going to all pray for a better winter next year, that's for sure," Hway said. It might not be enough. While this year's brown winter may be a result of El Niño, which is the cyclical warm climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean, researchers say Minnesota's winters are getting increasingly warmer, meaning fewer days of lake ice and shallower snow packs on hills and trails."
See more from James Walsh at StarTribune HERE
"The Best Tips And Tricks That Make Hiking In The Snow A Lot Less Intimidating"
One of the most romantic songs of the season is "Walking in a Winter Wonderland." The lyrics tell the story of a couple strolling in the snow, dreamy and carefree, and by the end, you can easily imagine the footprints they've left in white bluffs. Truly, hiking in the snow can be scenic, rewarding, and healthy. Whether you're meandering down snow-dusted paths in a city park or summiting a white-capped mountain in the Adirondacks, winter excursions are a special treat, especially if you have cabin fever and are just aching to get outside. Not sure where to go? We listed 12 underrated winter getaways across the United States. Yet snowfall poses special challenges for hikers, and poor preparation can lead to discomfort, injury, or even worse. Nobody knows exactly how many people slip on the ice and break a bone each year, but according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, more than 19,000 people died from "cold-related causes between 1979 and 2016." Despite all our apps, YouTube tutorials, and polar fleece, cold weather remains an unforgiving force, and, understandably, many hikers prefer to go outside in any season but winter.
Rare rainbow clouds lit up the Arctic sky for 3 days – see the stunning photos
"Sky watchers in the Arctic were treated to quite the spectacle in mid-December. Following the sweeping path of a cold wave through the Arctic, the skies were alight with rare polar stratospheric clouds, which presented a rainbow-like show throughout the sky. Images of the rare rainbow clouds made their way across Facebook and other social media, highlighting the event. The cold wave that brought these beautiful but rare clouds streaking across the sky gave skywatchers almost three days to enjoy the sights, Spaceweather.com reports. And while the clouds were visible in the sky all day, one photographer in the area says that the bright colors "really exploded just before sunset". We saw similar photos of rainbow-like clouds in early 2023, too."
