Average First Measurable Snow At MSP

Taking a look at the last the last 30 years, the climatological average first measurable snowfall (0.1") at the MSP Airport typically happens around November 5th. Note that our earliest measurable snowfall on record was on September 24th back in 1985 and our latest was on December 3rd, 1928.

Average First 1.0" Snowfall At MSP

Taking a look at the last the last 30 years, the climatological average first 1.0" snowfall at the MSP Airport typically happens around November 21st. Note that our earliest measurable snowfall on record was on September 26th back in 1942 and our latest was on January 21st, 2005.

Extended Snowfall Potential

Here's the ECMWF (European Model) extended snowfall outlook through Wednesday, November 11th. As of now, there doesn't appear to be any major events taking place anytime soon, but it won't be long before shovels make a return to a sidewalk near you!

Simulated Radar From AM Tuesday to AM Monday

Although temperatures will be running quite a bit below average through the first full week of November, weather conditions will remain rather quiet. As we approach the weekend, southerly winds will increase, which will help to bump temperatures back to above average levels by the 2nd week of November.

Precipitation Outlook Through Next Week

Here's the precipitation outlook through Wednesday of next week, which shows minimal precipitation potential across the region.

Drought Update For Minnesota

According to the US Drought Monitor, nearly 7% of the state is still considered to be in an extreme drought (in red across northern Minnesota), which is down from nearly 22% from 3 months ago. There has been a slight improvement in Severe Drought, which is at 36%, down from 75% 3 months ago. Nearly 62% of the state is still under a Moderate Drought, which includes much of the Twin Cities Metro.

Precipitation Departure From Average Since January 1st

Here's a look at the precipitation departure from average since January 1st and note that most locations are still several inches below average. The Twin Cities The metro is still nearly -5.68" below average since January 1st, which is the 52nd driest January 1st - October 29th on record.

Tuesday Weather Outlook

Tuesday will be a dry and sunny day, but temps will be much cooler with highs only warming into the lower 40s, which will be nearly -5F to -10F cooler than average for this time of the year. WNW winds will keep feels like temps in the 30s for much of the day.

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Tuesday, shows readings starting in the upper 20s and warming into lower 40s by the afternoon. Sunny skies will be mainly sunny through the day with WNW winds gusting close to 15mph through the day.

Weather Outlook For Tuesday

High temps across the region on Tuesday will only warm into upper 30s and the lower 40s, which will be nearly -5F to -10F below average for early November. There could be a few light rain/snow showers across the northeastern part of the state.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook shows cooler than average temps in place through the first full week of November. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday may be nearly -10F below average with readings struggling to get to 40F. Temps this weekend will warm to near 50F, which will be slightly above average for this time of the year.

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook through the first weekend of November remains mostly dry with temps warming to above average levels once again later this week.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, temps through the week ahead will be chillier than average through about midweek. However, we are getting indications of a modest warm up by the weekend and into the 2nd full week of November.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps returning across much of the nation including the Midwest.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, wetter conditions will continue in the Pacific Northwest and could trickle into the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, folks in the Southern US will be dry.

A Raging Fear of Green Lawns in November
By Paul Douglas

I'm pretty sure I have a touch of "astraphobia", a fear of lightning. You can be doing all the right things and still get zapped. Research suggests 1 in 10 Americans have some sort of weather fear. Snowbirds have an often-contagious case of "cryophobia" or fear of the cold, along with "chionophobia" - fear of snow. Come to think of it, I believe I have a fear of phobias.

Latest 30-year climate data for MSP show average Novembers are 1.1F milder and 9percent drier than they were from 1981 to 2010. I can hardly feel the difference. Nearly 7 inches of snow falls during an average November, but I don't see any accumulating slush looking out into mid-November. Lake effect snows give way to a late September-like ridge of high pressure this weekend, a bubble of unusually mild, Pacific air. That should mean 50s this weekend with a chance of low 60s early next week.

Everything is running a few weeks late. My gut says snow for Thanksgiving. Then again most climate models keep us milder than average into January.

Extended Forecast

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy, chilly. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 40.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and quiet. Winds: WNW 5. Low: 29.

WEDNESDAY: More clouds than sun, brisk. Winds: W 10-15. High: 42.

THURSDAY: Frosty start. More sunshine. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: 27. High: 48.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny and milder. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 32. High: 53.

SATURDAY: Intervals of sunshine, quiet. Winds: SW 7-12. Wake-up: 45. High: 57.

SUNDAY: October weather returns. Partly sunny. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 44. High: 56.

MONDAY: Some sun, weather honeymoon lingers. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 42. High: 60.

This Day in Weather History

November 2nd

1938: A tornado touches down at Nashwauk in Isanti County. Many livestock killed.

1842: A mild spell occurs at Ft. Snelling, where the temperature rises to 60 degrees.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

November 2nd

Average High: 49F (Record: 72F set in 1978)

Average Low: 33F (Record: 9F set in 1951)

Record Rainfall: 0.72" set in 1901

Record Snowfall: 5.3" set in 1992

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

November 1st

Sunrise: 7:53am

Sunset: 5:59pm

Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 6 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minute & 45 seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 20th): ~5 Hour & 44 Minutes

Moon Phase for November 2nd at Midnight

1.6 Days Before New Moon

National High Temps Tuesday

The weather outlook on Tuesday shows below average temps across much of the Midwest. On the leading edge of this cooler air, showers and thunderstorms will develop across the Southern US with locally heavy rainfall.

National Weather Outlook

The weather outlook through midweek shows areas of rain and snow possible across the Front Range and Central Plains. Meanwhile, showers and storms will be possible across the Southern US.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, heavier rains will be possible in the Southern US and also along the West Coast.

Extended Snowfall Potential

Here's the extended snowfall potential through the middle part of next week, which whos areas of snow in the high elevations in the Western US. We'll also see areas of snow in the Great Lakes region.

Climate Stories

"China's new climate plan promises to peak CO2 emissions before 2030"

China has promised to peak its carbon dioxide emissions before 2030, in an upgrade of its climate change plans that comes just three days before the start of COP26 summit in Glasgow, UK. But critics say China has missed the chance to go further and demonstrate global climate leadership. The revised plan submitted to the United Nations, known as a nationally determined contribution, formalises several pledges made by Chinese president Xi Jinping earlier this year and in 2020. It commits China to peaking its emissions before 2030, rather than around 2030 as previously promised. China says it will also reduce its "carbon intensity" – a measure of emissions per unit of gross domestic product – by 65 per cent by 2030, compared with 2005 levels. That is the upper end of the 60 to 65 per cent range set out in its earlier proposal. Bernice Lee at UK think tank Chatham House says: "You can't sugar-coat, it is disappointing. The world was expecting more from China at this point. It has missed a chance to slow global leadership." However, she says China's promise to peak emissions before 2030 is a positive step.

See more from New Scientist HERE:

"Light Pollution Threatens Millennia-old Indigenous Navigation Methods"

"As a crew member on a leg of the Moananuiākea Voyage through the Pacific, Ka'iu Kimura used nothing but the celestial sphere and the atmospheric and oceanic conditions to guide her — navigation methods that Indigenous groups throughout the region have used for thousands of years. Kimura, a native of the island of Hawai'i, is the executive director of the 'Imiloa Astronomy Center in the city of Hilo. In Hawai'i, several light ordinances protect the night sky to preserve local traditions and enable astronomical research. Kimura feels that navigation practices anchor her to her ancestral home. "I think navigation today stands as a major contributor to the resurgence, the reconnection, the revitalization of our Hawai'ian identity," Kimura says. "We all know we can jump on a plane and fly anywhere around the world, but it's the fact that we choose to bring back this traditional knowledge. It's about holding on to our identity as a people of Hawai'i and of the Pacific."

See more from Discover Magazine HERE:

"Spending Bill Marks Largest U.S. Climate Investment, 'But the Job Is Not Done'"

"In 2010, former President Obama pulled the plug on a cap-and-trade proposal to push through other parts of his domestic agenda. A decade passed before Congress tackled climate policy again. When it did, President Biden chose the opposite path of his former boss. The reconciliation package announced by Biden yesterday calls for $555 billion in climate and clean energy spending, making it the largest climate investment in American history and the biggest section of the $1.75 trillion budget deal. That fact underscores the growing importance of climate politics to Democrats and highlights the lessons learned by the party's policymakers over the last decade. Out are programs that would impose costs on polluters like cap and trade and carbon taxes. In are investments in clean energy, which are popular with voters and have helped transform America's electricity sector. The $90 billion in clean energy spending contained in the 2009 stimulus package helped send the cost of renewables plummeting and the number of wind and solar installations soaring. Now, Democrats are applying that approach to everything from electric vehicles to green hydrogen to sustainable aviation fuel (Climatewire, Oct. 26)."

See more from Scientific American HERE:

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