Beyond the presidential race, this year promises to be a big one in Minnesota politics, as each of the 201 legislative districts will be on the November ballot.

A conventional wisdom has cemented.

The House has flipped every two years in recent cycles, with the DFL winning in presidential years when their voters are more likely to turn out, and Republicans winning in the off-years like 2014. So most political observers expect a tightly contested race to see who has the speaker's gavel in 2017, determined to some extent by the effectiveness of each presidential nominee in bringing out his or her party's voters.

The Senate is viewed as safely in the grip of the DFL.

But will there be any surprises?

A DFL politico, who was granted anonymity so he could speak freely, predicts a more closely fought battle for the Senate.

Of chief concern for his party, he said, presumptive presidential nominee Hillary Clinton will not help turnout in rural districts where incumbent DFL senators are most imperiled. Moreover, seeing opportunities, Republican-leaning outside groups are ready to spend heavily.

(Alyssa Siems Roberson, Senate DFL spokeswoman, offered a succinct response: "You can't beat someone with no one, so I guess I'd find those challengers to Senate DFLers more credible if they actually existed.")

Before the serious campaigning begins, lawmakers will meet for a legislative session, taking up the potentially volatile issues of taxes and transportation spending.

House Speaker Kurt Daudt, R-Crown, who said he expects a hard-fought race to retain the GOP majority, said the presidential race is hard to predict.

"I would hate to even guess what's gonna happen on the Republican side," he said.

With that in mind, "We've been trying to create our own destiny," Daudt said about the effect of the presidential race on his caucus.

Daudt is still skeptical that Donald Trump will be the GOP nominee. But he said a Trump candidacy — which most people think would help Democrats up and down the ticket by firing up their voters — might offer a surprise. He said Trump's voters might be new to the political process and likely to vote for Republicans in state legislative races, thereby helping Daudt's caucus.

After hanging up the phone, Daudt called back and offered up another potential surprise, a prediction that was itself surprising: "I don't think the governor is going to finish his term," he said, predicting Gov. Mark Dayton will serve until after the election and then step down before the 2017 legislative session.

Through a spokesman, Dayton, who has jousted with Daudt a fair amount in the past year, responded: "Wishful thinking, Mr. Speaker. And wrong. I predict that Minnesotans will help elect Hillary Clinton president and send DFL majorities to our House and Senate."

J. Patrick Coolican • 651-925-5042