We knew in March that LaDainian Tomlinson was a future Hall of Fame running back. Who knew he was an elite NFL prognosticator as well?

Released by the San Diego Chargers and given only two options to keep playing, LT gambled what very well could be the final days of his great-but-championship-free career on the New York Jets being a better pick to reach the Super Bowl out of the stronger AFC than the Vikings coming out of the up-for-grabs NFC.

Sure, it's a no-brainer now. But 10 months ago?

Ten months ago, the Vikings were loaded. Brett Favre was waffling, but the whole world knew he would return, giving the Vikings all 22 starters back from a team that was seconds from reaching the Super Bowl.

The Jets also played in the conference title game, but they were the plucky Cinderella team. Even if they improved, they still lived in the high-rent conference with quarterbacks named Brady, Manning, Rivers and Roethlisberger.

As someone who whiffed on predicting the Vikings' fortunes this season, I asked Tomlinson how he knew. How did he know everything about the Vikings, including their stadium's roof, would collapse? How did he know the Jets would take down Peyton Manning and Tom Brady and be within 60 minutes of possibly snuffing out Ben Roethlisberger for the right to play in Super Bowl XLV?

"Honestly, I didn't know which team was the closest [to reaching the Super Bowl]," said Tomlinson, ever the gentleman -- even on a team that doesn't carry itself in a gentlemanly fashion. "For me, it was all about the right fit. I really felt comfortable with coach Rex Ryan, with [offensive coordinator] Brian Schottenheimer and the coaches here on the offensive staff. I played in this offense before and I just felt there wouldn't be a learning curve if I came to the Jets."

Tomlinson was 30 when he met with the Vikings in March. Many of us assumed, incorrectly, that Tomlinson was turning down more money and a better shot at the Super Bowl because he didn't want to run in Adrian Peterson's younger, bigger, faster shadow.

That seems silly now. Tomlinson went to the Jets, where he revived his career not as Thomas Jones' No. 1 replacement but as a savvy complement to the younger Shonn Greene.

"I think I've had a solid year, really solid for a guy who wasn't the feature back," said Tomlinson, who had 914 yards rushing and six touchdowns on 219 carries (4.2 yards per carry). "I'm happy with the way it turned out."

How did he know?

The Vikings stood pat during the offseason, and that seemed to be the prudent thing to do. The Jets, however, saw their near miss at the Super Bowl as reason to stomp on the accelerator and see what's around the next corner.

Ryan and General Manager Mike Tannenbaum took a lot of risks. Some on flashy stars with questionable character (receiver Santonio Holmes and cornerback Antonio Cromartie). Some on former All-Pro castaways with questionable ages (Tomlinson and 36-year-old linebacker Jason Taylor).

The Jets also added strength to their strengths. Knowing what they needed to overtake Manning and Brady, they used their first-round pick on yet another cornerback, Kyle Wilson. In Sunday's upset of Brady and the 14-2 Patriots, the Jets dressed 11 defensive backs. All of them played.

Three seasons ago, Tomlinson played in the AFC Championship Game. Actually, he tried to play on a sprained left knee and couldn't. He sat down after two carries for 5 yards in a 21-12 loss to the Patriots.

He can say he didn't know in March which team had a better chance to reach the Super Bowl, but I'm not buying it. A wealthy future Hall of Famer from Waco, Texas, about to turn 31, had to be thinking of one thing only when he visited Winter Park in March: Which team gets me to the Super Bowl in Arlington, Texas?

"The No. 1 and only goal for me was going to and winning the Super Bowl," Tomlinson said.

Ah, the truth comes out.

Mark Craig • mcraig@startribune.com