Craig: Anything can happen in the NFL playoffs

  • Article by: MARK CRAIG , Star Tribune
  • Updated: January 5, 2014 - 10:06 PM

After another topsy-turvy NFL regular season, it would not be outrageous to picture any of the 12 postseason teams emerging as the Super Bowl champion.

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San Diego Chargers tight end Antonio Gates hugs quarterback Philip Rivers after the Chargers made the playoffs with a 27-24 overtime victory over the Kansas City Chiefs in an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 29, 2013, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi )

Photo: Lenny Ignelzi, ASSOCIATED PRESS - AP

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Vikings fans resigned to a lengthy rebuilding project might want to take a peek at this year’s 12-team playoff field.

For the 17th time in 18 years, the NFL heads into wild-card weekend with at least five new playoff teams from the year before.

So welcome back to the postseason Carolina, Philadelphia, New Orleans, Kansas City and San Diego. Their combined record in 2012: 27-53. Their combined record in 2013: 53-27. Somewhere, Pete Rozelle is smiling.

Wait. There’s more.

One quarter of this year’s playoff field — Kansas City, Philadelphia and San Diego — were in the Vikings’ cleats a year ago this week. Coming off losing seasons, they had just fired their head coaches and were starting over. And of the three, only the Chargers, with Philip Rivers, had a franchise quarterback in place when the bloodletting began.

Turnarounds like that aren’t unusual. In fact, this is the seventh consecutive year in which at least one NFL team has reached the postseason the year after firing its head coach.

Of course, the hatchet swings the other way, too. The Vikings, Redskins, Falcons, Texans and defending Super Bowl champion Ravens failed to return to the playoffs this year. Their combined record a year ago: 55-25. This year: 22-57-1, with the Vikings, Redskins and Texans starting over with new head coaches.

Looking at this year’s playoff field, strong arguments could be made for any one of the 12 teams.

San Diego, the team with the worst record (9-7) and turnover differential (minus-4), has won an AFC-best four consecutive games and is peaking the way the 2010 Packers and 2005 Steelers did when they won the Super Bowl as No. 6 seeds. Meanwhile, the team with the worst overall record, NFC North champion Green Bay (8-7-1), has at least one home game and the return of Aaron Rodgers’ health.

In the NFC, the sixth-seeded Saints are 0-3 on the road against playoff teams, but they still have Drew Brees. The fifth-seeded 49ers are 12-4 with an NFL-best six-game winning streak. The third-seeded Eagles have a quarterback, Nick Foles, with no playoff experience, but he also has won seven of eight games and has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 19-2. The second-seeded Panthers also have a quarterback, Cam Newton, making his playoff debut, but Carolina’s scoring defense ranks No. 2 in the NFL (15.1).

In the AFC, the fifth-seeded Chiefs are 0-5 against the other five playoff teams, but they have a conference-best plus-18 in turnover differential. The fourth-seeded Colts experienced a midseason slump, but their 4-2 record against playoff teams includes victories over both No. 1 seeds. The third-seeded Bengals have gone one-and-done in back-to-back playoff appearances, but they are 4-0 against playoff teams this year. And the second-seeded Patriots have the worst third-down defense (42.2) of any playoff team, but they also have three B’s in their favor: a bye, a Brady and a Belichick.

That leaves only the two No. 1 seeds, Denver in the AFC and Seattle in the NFC.

Denver has the league’s first 600-point (606) offense and a record-setting, soon-to-be five-time league MVP quarterback in Peyton Manning. But the Broncos also have the No. 22 scoring defense (24.9) and Manning’s 9-11 postseason record. In 12 trips to the postseason, Manning has gone one-and-done eight times, including five times at home. So beware.

As good as Manning and the Broncos are offensively, Seattle seems to be the safer bet to seize home-field advantage and win its first Super Bowl.

For a chart in today’s Star Tribune, 13 categories were weighed in an effort to judge each conference’s playoff teams in the two most important elements of the 21st century NFL: Passing the ball and defending the pass.

The Seahawks ranked No. 1 in six categories in the NFC. They were dominant in yards allowed per pass attempt (5.82), defensive passer rating (63.4), passer rating differential (plus-37.8), interception differential (plus-19), turnover differential (plus-20) and red-zone defense (41.5 touchdown percentage). And, oh yeah, they also rank No. 1 in the league in scoring defense (14.4).

 

Mark Craig • mcraig@startribue.com

 

 

Mark Craig’s picks

Now here is one man’s guess at what will happen when the playoffs begin on Saturday:

Wild-card round

NFC: No. 6 Saints over No. 3 Eagles; No. 5 49ers over No. 4 Packers. AFC: No. 3 Bengals over No. 6 Chargers; No. 4 Colts over No. 5 Chiefs.

Divisional round

NFC: No. 5 49ers over No. 2 Panthers; No. 1 Seahawks over No. 6 Saints. AFC: No. 3 Bengals over No. 2 Patriots; No. 1 Broncos over No. 4 Colts.

Championship games

NFC: No. 1 Seahawks over No. 5 49ers. AFC: No. 1 Broncos over No. 3 Bengals.

Super Bowl XLVIII

Seahawks 34, Broncos 27.



 

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San Francisco 4 Bottom 5th Inning
Pittsburgh 0
Minnesota 10/2/14 7:25 PM
Green Bay
Buffalo 10/5/14 12:00 PM
Detroit
Chicago 10/5/14 12:00 PM
Carolina
Cleveland 10/5/14 12:00 PM
Tennessee
St. Louis 10/5/14 12:00 PM
Philadelphia
Atlanta 10/5/14 12:00 PM
NY Giants
Tampa Bay 10/5/14 12:00 PM
New Orleans
Houston 10/5/14 12:00 PM
Dallas
Baltimore 10/5/14 12:00 PM
Indianapolis
Pittsburgh 10/5/14 12:00 PM
Jacksonville
Arizona 10/5/14 3:05 PM
Denver
Kansas City 10/5/14 3:25 PM
San Francisco
NY Jets 10/5/14 3:25 PM
San Diego
Cincinnati 10/5/14 7:30 PM
New England
Seattle 10/6/14 7:30 PM
Washington
Washington 1 FINAL
Buffalo 6
Carolina 3 FINAL
Columbus 6
Pittsburgh 2 3rd Prd 10:46
Detroit 0
Montreal 0 2nd Prd 13:47
Chicago 0
Arizona 1 1st Prd 3:31
Edmonton 0
Fla Atlantic 10/2/14 6:00 PM
FIU
UCF 10/2/14 6:00 PM
Houston
Arizona 10/2/14 9:30 PM
(2) Oregon
Louisville 10/3/14 6:00 PM
Syracuse
San Diego St 10/3/14 9:00 PM
Fresno State
Utah State 10/3/14 9:15 PM
(18) BYU
(6) Texas A&M 10/4/14 11:00 AM
(12) Miss State
Ball State 10/4/14 11:00 AM
Army
Iowa State 10/4/14 11:00 AM
(21) Oklahoma State
Marshall 10/4/14 11:00 AM
Old Dominion
Southern Miss 10/4/14 11:00 AM
Middle Tennessee
(20) Ohio State 10/4/14 11:00 AM
Maryland
Purdue 10/4/14 11:00 AM
Illinois
Florida 10/4/14 11:00 AM
Tennessee
SMU 10/4/14 11:00 AM
(22) East Carolina
Virginia Tech 10/4/14 11:30 AM
North Carolina
Eastern Mich 10/4/14 1:00 PM
Akron
North Texas 10/4/14 1:30 PM
Indiana
Massachusetts 10/4/14 1:30 PM
Miami-Ohio
Tulsa 10/4/14 2:00 PM
Colorado State
New Mexico 10/4/14 2:30 PM
TX-San Antonio
(3) Alabama 10/4/14 2:30 PM
(11) Ole Miss
(14) Stanford 10/4/14 2:30 PM
(9) Notre Dame
(17) Wisconsin 10/4/14 2:30 PM
Northwestern
Navy 10/4/14 2:30 PM
Air Force
(7) Baylor 10/4/14 2:30 PM
Texas
(4) Oklahoma 10/4/14 2:30 PM
(25) TCU
Wake Forest 10/4/14 2:30 PM
(1) Florida State
NC State 10/4/14 2:30 PM
Clemson
Buffalo 10/4/14 2:30 PM
Bowling Green
Ohio U 10/4/14 2:30 PM
Central Mich
Oregon State 10/4/14 3:00 PM
Colorado
Vanderbilt 10/4/14 3:00 PM
(13) Georgia
Kansas 10/4/14 3:00 PM
West Virginia
Kent State 10/4/14 4:00 PM
Northern Ill
South Alabama 10/4/14 5:00 PM
Appalachian St
Texas-El Paso 10/4/14 6:00 PM
Louisiana Tech
(15) LSU 10/4/14 6:00 PM
(5) Auburn
UAB 10/4/14 6:00 PM
Western Ky
Texas Tech 10/4/14 6:00 PM
(23) Kansas State
Michigan 10/4/14 6:00 PM
Rutgers
Hawaii 10/4/14 6:00 PM
Rice
Toledo 10/4/14 6:00 PM
Western Mich
ULM 10/4/14 6:00 PM
Arkansas State
Georgia State 10/4/14 6:00 PM
Louisiana
Idaho 10/4/14 6:00 PM
Texas State
Memphis 10/4/14 6:00 PM
Cincinnati
Arizona State 10/4/14 6:30 PM
(16) USC
So Carolina 10/4/14 6:30 PM
Kentucky
Pittsburgh 10/4/14 6:30 PM
Virginia
Miami-Florida 10/4/14 6:30 PM
Georgia Tech
(19) Nebraska 10/4/14 7:00 PM
(10) Michigan State
UNLV 10/4/14 7:00 PM
San Jose St
Ga Southern 10/4/14 7:00 PM
New Mexico St
California 10/4/14 9:30 PM
Washington St
Utah 10/4/14 9:30 PM
(8) UCLA
Boise State 10/4/14 9:30 PM
Nevada
Winnipeg 10/3/14 6:00 PM
Ottawa
Calgary 10/3/14 9:00 PM
Saskatchewan
Edmonton 10/4/14 3:00 PM
Toronto
Brt Columbia 10/4/14 6:00 PM
Hamilton
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Date/Opponent Time W L Score
2014 preseason     
Aug 8 - vs. Oakland 7 pmX10-6
Aug 16 - vs. Arizona 7:30 pmX30-28
Aug 23 - at Kansas City 7 pmX30-12
Aug 28 - at Tennessee 7 pmX19-3
2014 regular season     
Sep 7 - at St. Louis NoonX34-6
Sep 14 - vs. New England NoonX30-7
Sep 21 - at New Orleans NoonX20-9
Sep 28 - vs. Atlanta 3:25 pmX41-28
Oct 2 - at Green Bay 7:25 pm
Oct 12 - vs. Detroit Noon
Oct 19 - at. Buffalo Noon
Oct 26 - at Tampa Bay Noon
Nov 2 - vs. Washington Noon
Nov 9 - Bye
Nov 16 - at Chicago Noon
Nov. 23 - vs. Green Bay Noon
Nov. 30 - vs. Carolina Noon
Dec 7 - vs. NY Jets Noon
Dec 14 - at Detroit Noon
Dec 21 - at Miami Noon
Dec 28 - vs. Chicago Noon

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