Jim Souhan analyzes the local sports scene and advises you to never take his betting advice. He likes old guitars and old music, never eats press box hot dogs, and can be heard on 1500ESPN at 2:05 p.m. weekdays, and Sundays from 10 a.m.-noon.
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While there are many ways to analyze a draft, here's the way I look at Rick Spielman's moves the last two years: He positioned himself to land five players in the first round. The first two, Matt Kalil and Harrison Smith, are very good players at positions of great need. The three Spielman took on Thursday could be just a valuable.
I'll be honest, Florida State cornerback Xavier Rhodes is the biggest mystery for me. The Vikings have not fared well when drafting cornerbacks. The Asher Allen experiment was particularly troubling. Chris Cook hasn't fulfilled his potential yet. Josh Robinson is talented but needs to make progress this year. The Vikings need Rhodes to be a starter, replacing Antoine Winfield.
The other two picks, I think, are perfect for this team. Sharrif Floyd should start in Game 1, and should be the kind of active defensive tackle the Vikings need, at the second-most important position (defensive line) in football. I believe the Vikings when they say they had no idea he could fall to them at No. 23.
And Cordarrelle Patterson is a fascinating pick. He's big and fast, can return kicks and punts, and I think will be able to both play Percy Harvin's old role in the offense and be a deep threat on the outside. He's not polished, but the Vikings rely heavily on receivers coach George Stewart, and he has a lot to work with in Patterson.
Covering the draft is such a strange journalistic experience. Nobody can say for certain which players will be good and which won't. We can't ever forget that Joe Montana went in the third round and Tom Brady in the sixth, and that some draft analysts favored Ryan Leaf over Peyton Manning.
But, as I wrote in my Friday column, Spielman has done very well with first-round picks, which tells me the more time he spends studying a player, the better Vikings fans should feel.
I wasn't thrilled with the Harvin trade or the team's willingness to lose Winfield, but Thursday's decisions could lessen the impact of those losses.
I'll be on WJON in St. Cloud at 7:15 a.m. and 1500ESPN at noon tomorrow to discuss the draft and other stuff. Please follow me on Twitter at @Souhanstrib.
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