Rand: Bad numbers adding up to a bad season for the Twins

  • Updated: August 28, 2013 - 9:31 PM

Mike Pelfrey is among a crowd of underachieving pitchers for the Twins.

Photo: JEFF WHEELER • jwheeler@startribune.com,

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Advanced statistics in baseball are largely useful in differentiating between what we think we see and what we actually see when it comes to players on the field. If ever those two shall meet … well, all the better because then the new-school numbers match the old-school eye test.

That brings us to the Twins. We were curious if what we saw matched what we thought we saw. So we took a spin through some advanced metrics at fangraphs.com and came away with some reinforced notions:

• Position players: How many of the eight positions to do you feel as though are relatively set for 2014, as long as everyone is healthy? Catcher, with Joe Mauer, naturally. Second base, probably, with Brian Dozier’s solid few months. Shortstop, perhaps, with Pedro Florimon’s impressive glovework and occasional offensive production.

Per FanGraphs’ calculation of WAR — the number of wins a player is worth above a low-level major league replacement, taking into account both offense and defense — that is accurate. Mauer is first among AL catchers with a WAR of 5.0 (minimum of 250 plate appearances). Dozier is seventh among AL second basemen (2.1). Florimon is seventh among AL shortstops (1.9). Nobody else is in the top 10 by position. The highest-ranked Twins outfielder? Clete Thomas at No. 35 in the AL, with a WAR of 0.7. Last year, Denard Span (12th in the AL) and Josh Willingham (13th) and Ben Revere (17th) were all at 3.0 or better.

• Starting pitchers: The eyes don’t lie. Here, we turn to xFIP — basically how good a pitcher has performed assuming he has an average defense behind him. There are 63 AL starters who have worked at least 100 innings this season, including four Twins: Sam Deduno, Kevin Correia, Scott Diamond and Mike Pelfrey. None are in the top 30 in the AL in xFIP. Two (Pelfrey and Diamond) are among the three worst.

• Relief pitchers: This has appeared to be a clear strength of the team, and the xFIP numbers bear that out. Glen Perkins and Casey Fien rank fifth and sixth, respectively, in that category in the American League. Three other relievers are in the top 50, all with above-average xFIP numbers.

Michael Rand

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Arizona «0000500106140
Minnesota001000100270
@Ballpark Replay
Preview | Matchup | Lineup | Log | Wrap | Box
W:J.Collmenter(11-8) L:R.Nolasco(5-12)
HR: ARI- M.Trumbo (12) MIN- None

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Cleveland - WP: C. Allen 4 FINAL
Kansas City - LP: G. Holland 3
Baltimore - LP: W. Chen 0 FINAL
NY Yankees - WP: M. Pineda 5
Kansas City - WP: D. Duffy 2 FINAL
Cleveland - LP: C. Carrasco 0
Seattle - LP: J. Paxton 4 FINAL
Toronto - WP: J. Happ 14
Chicago WSox - WP: C. Bassitt 2 FINAL
Detroit - LP: K. Lobstein 0
Pittsburgh - WP: F. Liriano 1 FINAL
Atlanta - LP: A. Harang 0
Houston - LP: N. Tropeano 3 FINAL
Texas - WP: D. Holland 4
St. Louis - WP: A. Wainwright 8 FINAL
Chicago Cubs - LP: T. Wood 0
Arizona - WP: J. Collmenter 6 FINAL
Minnesota - LP: R. Nolasco 2
LA Angels 1 Top 7th Inning
Oakland 6
San Francisco 2 Bottom 8th Inning
Los Angeles 2
Colorado 0 Top 8th Inning
San Diego 1
Chicago 27 FINAL
NY Jets 19
NY Giants 9/25/14 7:25 PM
Washington
Buffalo 9/28/14 12:00 PM
Houston
Green Bay 9/28/14 12:00 PM
Chicago
Tennessee 9/28/14 12:00 PM
Indianapolis
Carolina 9/28/14 12:00 PM
Baltimore
Detroit 9/28/14 12:00 PM
NY Jets
Tampa Bay 9/28/14 12:00 PM
Pittsburgh
Miami 9/28/14 12:00 PM
Oakland
Jacksonville 9/28/14 3:05 PM
San Diego
Atlanta 9/28/14 3:25 PM
Minnesota
Philadelphia 9/28/14 3:25 PM
San Francisco
New Orleans 9/28/14 7:30 PM
Dallas
Ottawa 2 FINAL
NY Islanders 3
Ottawa 5:00 PM
NY Islanders
New Jersey 5 FINAL
NY Rangers 4
Detroit 2 FINAL
Pittsburgh 1
Toronto 3 FINAL
Philadelphia 2
Washington 4 FINAL
Philadelphia 5
Minnesota 1 FINAL
Winnipeg 2
St. Louis 3 FINAL
Dallas 4
Anaheim 5 FINAL
Colorado 2
Colorado 0 FINAL
Anaheim 4
Los Angeles 4 3rd Prd 2:25
Arizona 4
Arizona 1 3rd Prd 16:01
Los Angeles 2
Texas Tech 9/25/14 6:30 PM
(24) Oklahoma State
Appalachian St 9/25/14 6:30 PM
Ga Southern
(11) UCLA 9/25/14 9:00 PM
(15) Arizona State
Middle Tennessee 9/26/14 7:00 PM
Old Dominion
Fresno State 9/26/14 7:00 PM
New Mexico
Texas-El Paso 9/27/14 11:00 AM
(25) Kansas State
Tennessee 9/27/14 11:00 AM
(12) Georgia
Vanderbilt 9/27/14 11:00 AM
Kentucky
Wyoming 9/27/14 11:00 AM
(9) Michigan State
Northwestern 9/27/14 11:00 AM
Penn State
TCU 9/27/14 11:00 AM
SMU
Iowa 9/27/14 11:00 AM
Purdue
Tulane 9/27/14 11:00 AM
Rutgers
So Florida 9/27/14 11:00 AM
(19) Wisconsin
Colorado State 9/27/14 11:30 AM
Boston College
Western Mich 9/27/14 11:30 AM
Virginia Tech
Maryland 9/27/14 12:30 PM
Indiana
Akron 9/27/14 12:30 PM
Pittsburgh
Bowling Green 9/27/14 2:00 PM
Massachusetts
Arkansas 9/27/14 2:30 PM
(6) Texas A&M
Kent State 9/27/14 2:30 PM
Virginia
Western Ky 9/27/14 2:30 PM
Navy
Minnesota 9/27/14 2:30 PM
Michigan
Wake Forest 9/27/14 2:30 PM
Louisville
FIU 9/27/14 2:30 PM
UAB
(1) Florida State 9/27/14 2:30 PM
NC State
Miami-Ohio 9/27/14 2:30 PM
Buffalo
Colorado 9/27/14 3:00 PM
California
Louisiana Tech 9/27/14 3:00 PM
(5) Auburn
Texas 9/27/14 3:00 PM
Kansas
Temple 9/27/14 3:00 PM
Connecticut
(16) Stanford 9/27/14 3:15 PM
Washington
TX-San Antonio 9/27/14 4:00 PM
Fla Atlantic
South Alabama 9/27/14 4:00 PM
Idaho
Cincinnati 9/27/14 5:00 PM
(22) Ohio State
Rice 9/27/14 6:00 PM
Southern Miss
Missouri 9/27/14 6:00 PM
(13) So Carolina
Boise State 9/27/14 6:00 PM
Air Force
North Carolina 9/27/14 6:00 PM
Clemson
Central Mich 9/27/14 6:00 PM
Toledo
Troy 9/27/14 6:00 PM
ULM
New Mexico St 9/27/14 6:30 PM
(17) LSU
Memphis 9/27/14 6:30 PM
(10) Ole Miss
Duke 9/27/14 6:30 PM
Miami-Florida
Texas State 9/27/14 7:00 PM
Tulsa
Washington St 9/27/14 7:00 PM
Utah
(8) Notre Dame 9/27/14 7:00 PM
Syracuse
(7) Baylor 9/27/14 7:00 PM
Iowa State
UNLV 9/27/14 7:00 PM
San Diego St
Illinois 9/27/14 8:00 PM
(21) Nebraska
Oregon State 9/27/14 9:30 PM
(18) USC
Nevada 9/27/14 9:30 PM
San Jose St
Montreal 9/26/14 6:00 PM
Ottawa
Saskatchewan 9/26/14 9:00 PM
Edmonton
Hamilton 9/27/14 5:30 PM
Winnipeg
Brt Columbia 9/27/14 8:30 PM
Calgary
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