WASHINGTON – Republicans are pushing full steam ahead on their tax-cut plan, despite a steady dose of polling that shows more Americans are opposed to rather than in support of the sweeping proposal to reduce corporate rates and some individual tax bills.
In pushing so hard, Republicans are betting that they can sell this plan to the skeptical public once the legislation is signed into law by President Donald Trump and workers see a boost in take-home pay. They are not dismissive of the polling, but they believe they can make it popular enough next year to save their congressional majorities in the midterm elections.
"I fundamentally believe when we do this — make good on our word, make good on our promise, make people's lives better — we're going to be just fine politically," House Speaker Paul Ryan told reporters last week before the House passed its tax-cut plan Nov. 16.
One can almost hear the echo of a previous House speaker pushing legislation in the early days of a new administration, as the proposal and the president started to get unpopular.
"We have to pass the bill so that you can find out what's in it," then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, now minority leader, said before final passage of the Affordable Care Act.
Pelosi's foes accused Democrats of passing a major law without ever reading it, taking her words out of context. What Pelosi was trying to say was quite similar to what Ryan is now saying: Once the law is passed and the public sees its effect, voters will like its benefits.
Instead, opponents branded the ACA as "Obamacare" and it remained unpopular for most of Barack Obama's presidency. In December 2009, after the House approved its version and the Senate was gearing up for a Christmas Eve vote, just 44 percent of voters supported it and 51 percent opposed it, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.
The GOP tax plan is slightly less popular at nearly the same stage of the process: Just 33 percent of adults support Trump's tax plan while 50 percent oppose it, according to this month's Post-ABC News poll.
In 2016, Obama's last year in office, the public began to appreciate the health law. By August of this year, after Republicans failed in their bid to repeal the law, 52 percent of voters supported the ACA and just 39 percent opposed it, according to a Kaiser Health Tracking Poll.
Republicans can take some solace in that groundswell of ACA support, showing how the public can warm to once unpopular laws. The question for Republicans is whether, if they succeed, they can convince the public that it was a good thing in time for next year's elections.
Democrats are driving home that the relief for corporate tax rates, from 35 percent down to 20 percent, is permanent while the lower rates for individuals expire after 10 years. "Republicans are openly looting the hard-earned income of the American middle class to hand tax breaks to the wealthiest 1 percent and corporations," Pelosi said.
To counter that charge, Republicans have been circulating data, polling and focus group feedback to try to win back the public on a traditional GOP issue. The key ingredient is talking about workers seeing more money in their paychecks and not getting focused on large macroeconomic theory.
For Republicans fearing a primary challenge, this tax plan is something to sell to conservative voters. "They need to put a product on the table," said former Rep. Tom Davis, who served as the House GOP campaign chief for four years.
