Tuesday night's 2-1, 14-inning loss to the Royals was the breaking point — or at least the latest breaking point — for some Twins fans who have watched their squad sputter this season largely because of an anemic offense.
Considered a likely strength going into this season after the young Twins lineup ranked No. 7 in MLB last season with 815 runs scored, the offense instead has produced the second-fewest runs (202) in the majors this season.
They've played fewer games than every other team in baseball, so on a per-game basis they rank in the mid-20s. But still: it's bad. The Twins are scoring almost exactly one run fewer per game this year than last: 5.03 in 2017 to 4.04 this year.
As I set out on a brief journey this afternoon to examine the "why" instead of just the "what," I hit some dead ends. Maybe they aren't walking as much, I wondered at the outset? Nope, their walk rate last year (3.66 per game) is nearly identical to this year (3.62). Maybe they aren't getting as many extra base hits? Again, it's nearly identical.
What about clutch hitting? Maybe we're getting closer to the problem. The Twins are No. 13 in batting average with runners in scoring position and No. 16 in slugging percentage with RISP this season. The Twins were No. 11 and No. 9 in those categories a year ago, so this should account for at least a little of the discrepancy.
But we don't get to the real answer until we simplify even more and look at the most direct way to score a run: the home run.
Last year's Twins were middle of the pack when it comes to the long ball. That's what 206 home runs in a season gets you these days — a No. 16 ranking. But that was plenty, particularly when considering some other factors.
This year? The Twins have hit just 48 home runs in 50 games. They went from 1.27 homers a game to 0.96 so far. That's a problem already. And here's the bigger problem within that problem:
