Cold Air Lingers in the Eastern US. Warmer This Weekend
The 850mb temp anomaly through the week ahead shows a chunk of very chilly weather slowing drifting through the eastern half of the nation. Temps have been very chilly as of late, but will gradually warm through the weekend to well above average levels before turning cooler again into next week.
Extended Temperature Outlook
Here's the extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis through the end of the month. Note that readings will still be very chilly (jacket-worthy) through Thursday with a gradual warming trend by the weekend. We could be near 70F again this weekend before another cool snap arrives for the last full week of October.
Fall Color Update
Here's the fall color update for Minnesota & Wisconsin. Fall colors are peaking or past peak in many spots across the central and northern half of Minnesota. Colors are peaking across the southern half of Minnesota and into much of Wisconsin.
See more from the MN DNR HERE & Travel Wisconsin HERE:
Average Fall Color
The MN DNR has put together a nice graphic that shows typical dates for peak fall color. The northern par of the state starts to peak during the 2nd half of September into early October. Meanwhile, folks in the central part of the state and into the metro typically don't see peak color until the end of September into the middle part of October. It won't be long now - enjoy!
What Causes Fall Colors?
The chemicals - Four main groups of biochemicals are responsible for the various yellows, oranges, reds and browns that we see in the fall: Chlorophyll, Carotenoids, Anthocyanins, Tannins. Each has its own color and chemistry. As the amount of these chemicals vary, they will cause subtle variations in color from one leaf to the next, or even from tree to tree.
See more from the MN DNR HERE:
How Does Weather Affect Fall Color?
Another Mostly Dry Week Ahead
The weather outlook through the middle part of next week shows quite weather in place until late weekend when a sharp cool front arrives. This front could kick out scattered showers and storms late Sunday into Monday with colder air and flurries possible Monday.
Precipitation Chances
Here's the extended precipitation potential through Wednesday. The heaviest rain potential will move through late Sunday in to Monday with pockets of 0.50" rainfall amounts or more, especially in any thunderstorms.
Severe Drought Continues in the Metro
According to the US Drought Monitor (updated October 11th) there is now a sliver of Extreme drought from the Twin Cities to Southwestern MN. This is an area that is well below average precipitation for the year.
Precipitation Departure From Average Since January 1st
Since January 1st, the Twin Cities is more than -9.25" below average precipitation, which is the 20th driest start to any year on record at the MSP Airport. Meanwhile, International Falls is more than +10" above average, which is the 2nd wettest start to any year on record.
Weather Outlook on Thursday
Temperatures on Thursday will be close to average on Thursday with temps warming in the mid 50s across the central part of the state. However, note the 70s across the Dakotas, this is some the warmth that will spill into Minnesota over the weekend.
Weather Outlook Thursday
The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Thursday shows temps warming into the mid 50s. Winds will be light with somewhat sunny skies.
Meteograms for Minneapolis
The hourly forecast for Minneapolis on Thursday shows temps starting in the mid 30s in the morning and warming in the mid 50F by the afternoon. Skies will generally be sunny with winds out of the northwest around 10mph-15mph.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows a gradual warming trend through the week. We'll be close to average on Thursday, but will be above average on Friday through the weekend with highs in the 70s.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows near average temps in place on Thursday before a gradual warming trend this weekend. Next week will be cooler after a frontal passage with a chance of flurries in some spots.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps in place across the Central US and Northeast.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather setting up across the Northwest.
Weather Whiplash. 70s Return By The Weekend
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.
Believe it or not, we've lost nearly 5 hours of daylight since the summer solstice on June 21st. By the end of the month, our sunset will be near 6pm and to make matters worse the time change occurs the first weekend in November, meaning our sunset will be before5pm in a little more than 2 weeks. Uffda!
It is this rapid decrease in daylight that causes wild weather swings in the Northern Hemisphere. As colder air begins to build in the Arctic region, larger storm systems develop and help to dispel this deepening cold air reservoir from the north.
October can be a month of extremes with severe storms (including a rare tornado in the Boundary Waters on October 10th last year) and heavy snow, including the infamous Halloween Blizzard of 1991.
After a bone-chilling start to the week, temperatures surge to September-like 70s this weekend. A t-shirt advisory may be needed. Strong winds develop Sunday in advance of an intense system that could spark a few strong storms late Sunday with much colder air (and flurries?) by next week!
Extended Forecast
THURSDAY: Bright sun. Warmer. Winds: WSW 5. High: 55.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and quiet. Winds: S 5. Low: 44.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Nice October day. Winds: WNW 5-10. High: 64.
SATURDAY: Filtered sunshine. Feels like Sept. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 43. High: 71.
SUNDAY: Breezy & warm. T-showers late? Winds: ESE 15-30. Wake-up: 58. High: 74.
MONDAY: Gusty winds. Strong storms? Winds: WSW 15-35. Wake-up: 54. High: 60.
TUESDAY: Windy and colder. Snow showers north. Winds: WNW 15-30. Wake-up: 40. High: 48.
WEDNESDAY: Brisk wind. Scattered flurries. Winds: NW 15-30. Wake-up: 36. High: 45.
This Day in Weather History
October 20th
2002: Heavy snow impacts central Minnesota. It fell in a 10-20 mile wide band from southeast North Dakota to around Grantsburg, Wisconsin. Little Falls picked up 9 inches.
1916: Accumulating snow falls in south central Minnesota with 4.5 inches recorded in New Ulm, 4 inches in Farmington and Hutchinson, 3.5 inches in Montevideo, and 3 inches in Faribault.
1835: 6 inches of snow falls at Ft. Snelling.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
October 20th
Average High: 56F (Record: 83F set in 1953)
Average Low: 39F (Record: 18F set in 1960)
Record Rainfall: 2.64" set in 1934
Record Snowfall: 7.9" set in 2020
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
October 18th
Sunrise: 7:35am
Sunset: 6:19pm
Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 44 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 3 minutes & 00 seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 4 hour & 55 minutes
Moon Phase for October 20th at Midnight
1.6 Day After Last Quarter Moon
National High Temps Thursday
The weather outlook on Thursday shows cooler than average temps in place across the eastern US, while warmer than average temps will set up in the western US
National Weather Outlook Thursday
Very chilly air will be in place across the eastern half of the nation and it could be cold enough for a rain/snow mix in the Great Lakes Region. Meanwhile, folks in the western half of the nation will be warmer and drier.
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through Friday shows mostly quiet weather in place across much of the US. A bigger storm system arrives in the Pacific Northwest with areas of rain and snow.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavier precipitation will be possible across the Central US and the Pacific Northwest.
Snowfall Potential
Areas of heavy snowfall will be possible in the Great Lakes Region through the end of October, especially in the high elevations.
Climate Stories
"Flooding in Nigeria Kills 603, Displaces More Than 1.3 Million"
"The worst flooding in Nigeria in a decade has killed more than 600 people, destroyed more than 200,000 homes and forced more than 1.3 million to flee. The government has blamed the ongoing disaster on extreme rainfall and the climate crisis, as well as dam releases related to the heavy precipitation, as BBC News reported. Climate change makes severe rainfall events more likely in part because warmer air contains more moisture. "The scale of the flood disaster across the country is colossal," National Emergency Management Agency Director General Mustapha Habib Ahmed said in a statement shared on Twitter."
"UN Chief Calls for Renewables Revolution to Fight Climate Change"
"The world needs a "renewables revolution," backed by financial support from the wealthiest nations, to deal with climate change, United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres said. Guterres, speaking in Mumbai on Wednesday during a three-day visit to India, called for a "coalition of support" to accelerate the deployment of clean energy. He urged nations to reduce the cost of capital for expanding clean energy in developing economies, and to diversify supply chains and manufacturing capacity."
"With Marine Power, It's Not the Size of Your Turbine, It's the Motion of the Ocean"
"A big chunk of our clean-energy pie will be wind and solar. Somewhat smaller slices will be geothermal and nuclear and hydropower. But the last part, maybe the last 10 percent or so, might come down to more niche technologies like hydrogen fuel cells and marine power. The latter represents the cutting edge of clean energy R&D, and it's primarily happening at the Department of Energy, where the Water Power Technologies Office is seeking to develop, test, and tinker with different devices until they're commercially viable, at which point private firms will take it away. In general, these devices fit into a few main categories: wave, tidal, river current, and gradients."
