Twin Cities January Summary So Far
Despite the colder than average weather as of late, January Temperatures are running nearly +3.5F above average with snowfall running more than -3.5" below average. As we approach the back half of January, it looks like temperatures will return to warmer than average levels with minimal snowfall potential in the forecast.
Coldest Wind Chill Values AM Wednesday
Here's the lowest wind chills expected on Wednesday. Some locations will be in the -10s to -30s across the region, which means that frost bite could occur within minutes for some. Bundle up!
Dress For The Weather
"Extremely cold air comes every winter into at least part of the country and affects millions of people across the United States. The arctic air can be dangerous. Combined with brisk winds, dangerously cold wind chill values can result. People exposed to extreme cold are susceptible to frostbite and can succumb to hypothermia in a matter of minutes. Areas most prone to frostbite are uncovered skin and the extremities, such as hands and feet. Hypothermia occurs when the body loses heat faster than it can produce it. Cold weather can also affect crops. In late spring or early fall, cold air outbreaks can damage or kill produce for farmers, as well as residential plants and flowers. A freeze occurs when the temperature drops below 32°F. Freezes and their effects are significant during the growing season. Frost develops on clear, calm nights and can occur when the air temperature is in the mid-30s. Each plant species has a different tolerance to cold temperatures. You may also want to check out our winter safety site for snow and more cold season hazards information. If you or someone you know has been a victim of extreme cold, please share your story so we can help prevent others from becoming a victim. When you write, please state that the NWS has permission to use your story, and let us know the town and state you were in and when the event took place. Read our real-life stories from extreme cold survivors."
Welcome to the Arctic
Take a look at the 850mb temp anomaly across the nation as we head through the next 7 days. Some of the coldest air of the season by far will continue across much of the nation with many dealing with subzero wind chill values.
COLD Mid January Temperatures
Temps in the Twin Cities over the next several days will continue to see very cold temps with readings running well below average for this time of the year. As we approach the weekend and into next week, we'll see a pretty dramatic shift toward warmer temps once again.
Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI)
"Winter seasons have significant societal impacts across all sectors ranging from direct human health and mortality to commerce, transportation, and education. The question "How severe was this winter?" does not have a simple answer. At the very least, the severity of a winter is related to the intensity and persistence of cold weather, the amount of snow, and the amount and persistence of snow on the ground. The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) was developed to objectively quantify and describe the relative severity of the winter season."
It's probably no surprise, but most locations around the Midwest and Great Lakes have had a "Mild" winter so far. Again, we're still waiting for the other boot to drop, but being in an El Nino setup, a winter like last year is not really in the cards. The Midwest will likely see an overall warmer and less snowy winter.
"Mild" Winter So Far in for the Twin Cities
Here's a look at the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) for Minneapolis, MN so far this winter season. With a lack of cold temps and snow, it may be no surprise that we are currently sitting under a "Mild" winter rating so far.
COLD & Quiet Week Ahead
Here's the weather outlook through the weekend ahead, which shows quiet weather in place closer to home, but it will still be very cold. There could be a brief shot of light snow late Thursday into Friday, mainly southwest of the Twin Cities. Stay tuned.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's WPC, there is very minimal precipitation potential closer to home over the next 7 days with very little amounts across the state.
Seasonal Snowfall So Far
The Twin Cities has only seen 7.w" of snow this season, which is more than -17.0" below normal snowfall and the 22nd least snowy start to any season on record. Duluth is nearly -30" below normal snowfall and Marquette in nearly -42" below normal snowfall.
Seasonal Snowfall Departure From Average
Looking around the region, no climate site has a surplus this season. The biggest deficits are around the Great Lakes, where we typically get lake effect snow, but with a lack of Arctic air, we haven't seen much in the way of heavy snow yet this season.
Twin Cities Average Snowfall
Depending on what 30-year average you look at, December is typically the 1st or 2nd snowiest month out of the year in the Twin Cities. If you look at the last 30 years 1993-2022, December averages 12.7" of snow and is the snowiest month of the year, followed by January with nearly 11" of snow.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Wednesday calls for cold temps with readings holding in the single digits through the afternoon. Feels like temps will be even colder and into the -10s much of the daylight hours.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Temperatures in the Twin Cities on Wednesday will start around zero in the morning and will will warm in to the single digits in the afternoon. WNW winds will be strong once again will gusts approaching 15mph to 20mph, which will keep the wind chill values in the subzero range all day.
Hourly Feels Like Temps For Minneapolis on Wednesday
Feels like temps through the day will be around the -15F to -5F through the entire day. It will be cold, but not as cold as it has been over the last few days.
Weather Outlook For Wednesday
The weather outlook for Wednesday will still be quite cold with highs hovering in the single digits above and below zero, which is nearly -10F to -20F below average for this time of the year.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis will be well below average for this time of the year with readings nearly -10F to -15F below average through the week. Highs by Sunday will warm into the 20s, which will be close to average for this time of the year.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis over the next 7 days shows well below average temps through the rest of the week. The coldest readings will end early Saturday morning before warmer weather moves in once again. Highs warm into the 30s as we approach early next week into the 30s.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook, warmer than average temperatures returning across much of the nation. After a very cold week ahead, it looks like El Nino warmth returns.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook shows more active weather across much of the nation and especially across the Central and Southern US.
Touch Of March Possible Next Week
By Paul Douglas
My over-hyped Space Laser 3000 must be malfunctioning. We are still experiencing one of the 5 strongest El Ninos since 1950. Big storms are consistently tracking south and east of Minnesota. Nearly 8" of snow delighted residents of Nashville on Monday. The hills of northern Alabama have picked up more snow this winter than we have. Flurries were spotted on the Florida Panhandle!
Our relentless snow drought continues until further notice. The pressure gradient relaxes slightly today, allowing relentless winds to ease a bit. Thursday's snowy swirl tracks south over Iowa. By the way, eastern Nebraska, much of Iowa and southern Wisconsin has 8-16" snow on the ground. Blame/thank El Nino.
A reinforcing slap of numbing air on Friday gives way to a slow weekend warming trend. I see 30s pretty much every day next week. In fact weather models hint ice or rain by midweek. Bizarre swings in weather, but not that unusual for January.
I could live without windchill, but seeing the sun again has been healing.
Extended Forecast
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, less wind. Winds: NW 10-15. High 8.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy and cold. Feels like -15F. Winds: WNW 5-10. Low 0.
THURSDAY: Patchy clouds, snow stays south. Winds: NW 10-15. High 9.
FRIDAY: Few flakes, feels like -20F. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: -2. High 5.
SATURDAY: Blue sky, a little better. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: -5. High 11.
SUNDAY: A few clouds, stiff breeze. Winds: S 10-25. Wake-up: 3. High: 21.
MONDAY: Cloud-cluttered and milder. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 16. High: 31.
TUESDAY: Chance of a little freezing drizzle. Winds: E 10-15. Wake-up: 26. High 33.
This Day in Weather History
January 17th
1996: A severe ice storm hits the western and northern Twin Cities with accumulations between a half an inch and an inch. A foot of snow fell over central Minnesota.
1982: The citizens of Tower wake up to a frigid low of -52 degrees F.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
January 17th
Average High: 21F (Record: 44F set in 1894)
Average Low: 8F (Record: -26F set in 1967)
Record Rainfall: 0.90" set in 1996
Record Snowfall: 5.1" set in 1932
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
January 17th
Sunrise: 7:46am
Sunset: 4:59pm
Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 13 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: 1 Minute & 49 Seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 27 minutes
Moon Phase for January 17th at Midnight
0. Day Since First Quarter Moon
National High Temps on Wednesday
The weather outlook on Wednesday looks very cold across much of the nation with temps running nearly -10F to -20F below average for this time of the year.
National Weather Outlook For Wednesday
Areas of snow will continue across the Great Lakes. There will also be areas of heavy rain and mountain snow in the Pacific Northwest.
National Weather Outlook
The National Weather Outlook through Thursday shows areas of snow lingering across the Great Lakes with heavy accumulations possible. There will be more rain and snow in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies with some snow drifting through the Midwest, south of the Twin Cities.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation across the Western US and especially along the Coast and the high elevations. There will also be some decent precipitation across the Great Lakes and more heavy precipitation developing in the Southern US.
Extended Snowfall Outlook
According to the ECMWF weather model, Heavy snow will continue to fall in the high elevations in the Western US. There will also be some heavy snowfall in the Great Lakes and parts of the Eastern US.
Climate Stories
"2023 Was The Warmest On Record: What It Means For Sports You Love"
"2023 was the officially hottest year on record for our planet. It was the first year with all days over 1°C warmer than the pre-industrial period, in fact the global average temperature in 2023 was 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels, nearing the 1.5°C Paris Agreement threshold. Temperatures likely exceed those of any period in the last 100,000 years. Scientific studies show that extreme weather events are likely to become more frequent or intense with climate change. As we set a path to more of the same or even worse, what can we expect our sports to look like in the future? Athletes crash The impact on human health sits at the heart of sport and leisure in a changing climate. The physiological impacts of exertion in extreme heat include decline in athletic performance, muscle cramps, exhaustion, fainting, and loss of consciousness. Instances of athletes already experiencing these impacts are persistent; from tennis, baseball and softball, athletics, football and more. Young people participating in sport during extreme heat are particularly at risk, which is leading to some fatal consequences. Spectators and those working at sporting events are negatively impacted too.
"From Venice To Giza, A Journey To World Heritage Sites Threatened By Climate Change"
"A storm surge threatens to flood Venice, and you can help shopkeepers safeguard their businesses even though you're 4,000 miles away. An interactive exhibit at the Museum of Science, Boston tasks you with barricading faux storefronts with protective panels to minimize the water damage. The task is part of "Changing Landscapes: An Immersive Journey," which takes museum visitors to four UNESCO World Heritage Sites grappling with the effects of climate change. The rising tide at the museum might be digital and the barricades made of foam, but the threat to Venice is all too real. The historic Italian city of maze-like canals and elegant Renaissance architecture has always been at risk of flooding from the Adriatic Sea. But the danger has increased due in part to global warming, which is melting glaciers and ice sheets, causing sea levels to rise."
"Four factors that drove 2023's extreme heat and climate disasters"
"Between the record-breaking global heat and extreme downpours, it's hard to ignore that something unusual is going on with the weather in 2023. People have been quick to blame climate change—and they're right: human-caused global warming plays the biggest role. The weekslong heat wave that started in June 2023 in Texas, the U.S. Southwest and Mexico would have been virtually impossible without it, one study found. However, the extremes this year are sharper than anthropogenic global warming alone would be expected to cause. September temperatures were far above any previous September, and around 3.1°F (1.75°C) above the preindustrial average, according to the European Union's earth observation program. July was Earth's hottest month on record, also by a large margin, with average global temperatures more than half a degree Fahrenheit (a third of a degree Celsius) above the previous record, set just a few years earlier in 2019."
