Dust From Colorado & Kansas Showed Up in Duluth
Thanks to the National Weather Service Duluth for the picture below. After checking the rain gauge on Thursday, they noticed that the accumulated liquid inside the gauge was cloudy. Wednesday's storm system was so intense that Dust Storms developed across the Central Plains and got pulled up into upper Midwest and eventually showed up in Duluth. Crazy!
First Minnesota Tornado Ever On Record In December
According to the National Weather Service in the Twin Cities & La Cross, there were confirmed tornadoes in Minnesota, which makes it the first tornado ever recorded in the state during the month of December. Here is more information regarding the tornado near Hartland MN. Note that there was another confirmed tornado in Stanley WI. More information will be available after the surveys are complete.
"Storm Survey Update: Survey team in Hartland MN confirms damage there was produced by a tornado. Survey is still ongoing to determine rating/strength, path length and path width. Additional details will be provided later today or this evening."
"Storm Survey Update: Survey team in Stanley WI confirms damage there was produced by a tornado. Survey is still ongoing to determine rating/strength, path length and path width. Additional details will be provided later today or this evening."
Tornado Update From NWS La Crosse, WI
"Here are the preliminary tornado survey results from our teams today - surveying the damage from Wednesday evening storms. So far 8 tornadoes - 2 EF2s, 2 EF1s, and 4 EF0s. These are preliminary results and may be adjusted as more information becomes available."
Warnings Issued on December 15th
Here's a look at all the severe thunderstorm warnings & tornado warnings that were issued on December 15th. Incredibly, there were 118 total severe thunderstorm warnings and 71 tornado warnings, which included parts of SE Minnesota for the first time ever during the month of December!!
December 15th Derecho
"Quick graphic with the position of the 15 Dec 2021 derecho. First and last severe/tornado warnings are noted. The derecho traveled roughly 660 miles in 10.5 hours, giving an average forward motion of 63 mph. That's faster than some interstate speed limits in Iowa."
Most Significant (75+mph) Wind Gusts in a Day Since at Least 2004*
"According to @NWSSPC Wednesday (12/15) set the record for the most number of hurricane force (75+ mph) thunderstorm wind gusts in a day (55, and counting) since 2004. The previous record was from August 10, 2020 with 53."
Strongest Wind Gusts Recorded Closer to Home
Here is a look at the peak winds (mph) from across the region on Wednesday Night. Keep in mind that severe thunderstorm winds are 58mph and most of these winds were just due to the intense area of low pressure. The highest wind gust was in Redwood Falls at 78mph, while the MSP Airport saw a 61mph wind gust.
Storm Report Map From Wednesday, December 15th
Wednesday - Wednesday Night was a pretty crazy night. Below are all of the high wind gusts or damaging wind reports (in yellow) that were received across the region. There were also several (rare for December) tornado reports across the region as well.
Record High Temps From Wednesday, December 15th
Here are a look at the record high temps from Wednesday, December 15th. Hard to believe that many locations were this warm. Note that the MSP high of 58F is more typical of mid April or mid October.
"Hurricane-force wind gusts in Colorado, dust storms in Kansas, tornadoes in Iowa in December – here's what fueled a day of extreme storms"
"What happened in the atmosphere to trigger such extreme weather over such a wide area? "We were seeing very strong winds because of a very powerful disturbance in the jet stream. That disturbance helped to create a very intense low-pressure system, which creates strong winds and storms. But the low pressure wasn't what made this event unusual. It was unprecedented because an incredible amount of warm air got pulled up from the south ahead of the storm. Here in Iowa, temperatures were the hottest they've ever been in December, with temperatures in the mid 70s on Dec. 15, and a very unusual amount of humidity came up with those temperatures. That's why we were seeing tornado warnings across the region – and reports of tornado damage. Tornadoes are extremely rare in Iowa in December. Minnesota, which had never had a tornado in December, also had tornado warnings and a possible sighting."
See more from The Conversation HERE:
Light Snow Develops Friday
Now that our crazy weather is over, here's a look at the simulated radar from AM Friday to Saturday night. Light snow is expected to spread across the region with minor snow accumulations, mainly across central/western MN and the eastern Dakotas.
Snowfall Potential
Here's the snowfall potential from Friday through Saturday. Note the heaviest tallies will generally be NW of the Twin Cities with a couple/few inches possible closer to the Fargo/Moorhead area. The Twin Cities will be lucky to see a light coating
Drought Update For Minnesota
According to the US Drought Monitor, nearly 1% of the state is still considered to be in an extreme drought (in red across northern Minnesota), which is down from nearly 36% from 3 months ago. There has been a slight improvement in Severe Drought, which is at 27%, down from 59% 3 months ago. Nearly 49% of the state is still under a Moderate Drought, which includes much of the Twin Cities Metro.
Precipitation Departure From Average Since January 1st
Here's a look at the precipitation departure from average since January 1st and note that most locations are still several inches below average, including the Twin Cities. The MSP Airport is still -5.65" below average since January 1st, which is the 57th driest January 1st - December 15th on record.
Friday Weather Outlook
Here's the weather outlook for Minneapolis on Friday. Note that temps will be quite chilly with highs only warming into the low/mid 20s, which will be slightly below average for this time of the year. Skies will remain mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow late in the day or overnight.
Meteograms for Minneapolis
The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Friday show readings starting in mid teens in the morning and will slowly warm into the low/mid 20s by the afternoon. Winds will turn out of the east around 7-12mph.
Chilly Feels Like Temps on Wednesday
Here are the hourly feels like temps for Minneapolis on Friday, which show readings in the single digits in the morning and in the low/mid teens through the afternoon. It will be a chilly!
Weather Outlook For Friday
High temps across the region on Friday will warm into the 10s & 20s across much of the state, which will be nearly -5F to -10F below average for mid December. There will also be a chance of light snow late in the day with minor accumulations possible in central MN overnight.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
Temperatures will be slightly below average on through Saturday with highs only warming into the low/mid 20s. We get back to and above average Sunday and Monday with a potential thaw across parts of southern MN.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
After a little light snow potential PM Friday into AM Saturday, weather conditions look rather dry and quiet leading up to Christmas Eve on Friday; great news for travelers. Temps will warm briefly to near freezing on Monday, but will tumble a bit late in the week.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, temps will bounce around the 20s and 30s over the next several days with mostly quiet weather. The last week of the month could be colder with highs running below average. Stay tuned...
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows below average reading across the northern tier of the nation by the end of the month. Meanwhile, much of the rest of the nation will running well above average once again.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, more active weather will continue across the Western US and Upper Midwest, while drier weather will continue in the southern and along the East Coast.
Tornado-Free and Seasonably Chilly
By Paul Douglas
"May you live in interesting times" the proverb goes. I hear it's not a compliment. The last couple of years have been vaguely apocalyptic, and the weather hasn't been a calming influence, either.
Wednesday's freakish warm front resulted in the first confirmed Minnesota tornado in December. A weak EF0 was reported near Winona, and I suspect damage in Hartland (Freeborn County) may have been tornadic rather than straight-line wind damage. Survey teams from the Twin Cities National Weather Service will make that determination. Then again, if it takes your roof off, it doesn't much matter what you call it right?
After our recent wet, wind blown weather tantrum I'm relieved to be tracking quiet weather into Christmas with 20s, even a few 30s next week.
Central Minnesota may pick up a couple inches of fluff today into Saturday, but a dry westerly wind flow aloft will limit any potential for big snowstorms.
No Polar Vortex in sight yet, but I'd bet a(half-eaten) Christmas cookie January will be colder.
Extended Forecast
FRIDAY: Light snow central MN. Winds: E 7-12. High: 22.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Light snow late. Winds: ENE 5. Low: 17.
SATURDAY: Flurries taper, clouds linger. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 23.
SUNDAY: Sunny peeks, not as numb. Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 10. High: 29.
MONDAY: Partly sunny and breezy. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 25. High: 32.
TUESDAY: Chance of a snowy dusting. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 15. High: 25.
WEDNESDAY: Some sun, a bit milder. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 16. High: 30.
THURSDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, "average". Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 17. High: 28.
This Day in Weather History
December 17th
1996: 20 to 40 mph winds combined with recent snowfall produce blizzard like conditions for about a 36 hour period over much of the area. Whiteout conditions are common in rural and open areas. Every county road in Yellow Medicine county was impassable by the morning of the 18th. Travelers heading west were stranded in Clara City as plows were pulled off the road. Wind chills were as low as 60 degrees below zero.
1946: Heavy snow is reported along with strong wind across northern Minnesota. Duluth has winds up to 62 mph.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
December 17th
Average High: 26F (Record: 53F set in 1939)
Average Low: 12F (Record: -17F set in 1875, 1983, 1985)
Record Rainfall: 0.81" set in 1908
Record Snowfall: 10.8" set in 1908
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
December 17th
Sunrise: 7:45am
Sunset: 4:33pm
Hours of Daylight: ~8 hours & 47 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 21 seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 20th): ~7 Hour & 3 Minutes
Moon Phase for December 17th at Midnight
0.9 Days Before Full "Cold" Moon
"10:37 p.m. CST - December is usually considered the month that the winter cold begins to fasten its grip in the Northern Hemisphere. This month's full moon is also called the Long Night Moon, since nights are at their longest and darkest. It's also known as the Moon before Yule. The term Long Night Moon is a doubly appropriate name because the midwinter night is indeed long and the moon is above the horizon a long time. The midwinter full moon takes a high trajectory across the sky because it is opposite to the low sun. This is also the smallest full moon of 2021 (a "micromoon," or minimoon), since the Earth will arrive at apogee, its farthest distance from Earth, on Dec. 17 at a distance of 252,476 miles (406,320 km). The moon will appear some 14% smaller compared to the full moon of May 26."
National High Temps Friday
The weather outlook on Friday shows below average temperatures across much of the Western US and the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, folks in the Southern & Eastern US will continue well above average temps will record highs possible for many locations.
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through Saturday shows showers and storms from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall and isolated flood concerns. Meanwhile, another Pacific storm will take shape and begin to bring heavier precipitation to the Norwest. This will be the next big weather maker for the West Coast heading into most of next week.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavy precipitation will be found along the West Coast over the next several days with localized flooding. There will also be several feet of snow in the high elevations. There will also be another surge of heavy precipitation across parts of the middle part of the country and through the Gulf.
Extended Snowfall Potential
Here's the extended snowfall potential through next week, which show heavy snow potential across the Western US. There will also be another swath of snow across Canada.
Climate Stories
"100 degrees in the Arctic? A new record raises alarms among climate scientists"
"On June 20, 2020, the temperature in the Russian town of Verkhoyansk reached 100.4 degrees Fahrenheit. It was a record for the Arctic region but more than that, scientists say, it was a wake-up call for the rest of the world. The World Meteorological Organization, the official weather record keepers, disclosed the new high temperature Tuesday after working with scientists around the world to confirm the reading. Verkhoyansk is located in northern Siberia and the area surrounding the town often sees swings in temperature, from hot in the summer to freezing in the winter. But this new high has startled climatologists and researchers with the WMO, an agency within the United Nations. The Arctic is responsible for weather throughout the Northern Hemisphere and it's heating up at least twice as fast as other parts of the world. The report outlining the new record found that regions of Siberia were frequently at least 10 degrees Celsius, or 50 degrees Fahrenheit, above normal last year, igniting fires, causing drought and fueling large-scale sea ice melt."
See more from AZ Central HERE:
"Wildfires Are Putting Giant Sequoias at Existential Risk"
"On a dead still November morning in the Sierra Nevada, two researchers walk through a graveyard of giants. Below their feet: a layer of ash and coal. Above their heads: a charnel house of endangered trees. This is Alder Creek Grove, a once idyllic environment for a majestic and massive specimen: the giant sequoia. It is now a blackened monument to a massive wildfire—and humankind's far-reaching impact on the environment. But these two researchers have come to do more than pay their respects. Linnea Hardlund and Alexis Bernal, both of the University of California, Berkeley, are studying the effects of record-breaking fires such as the one that destroyed large swaths of Alder Creek Grove in the hopes that their findings will inform forest management that might preserve giant sequoias for future generations."
See more from Scientific American HERE:
"November 2021: Earth's 4th-warmest November on record"
"November 2021 was Earth's fourth-warmest November since global record-keeping began in 1880, 0.91 degree Celsius (1.64°F) above the 20th-century average, NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, NCEI, reported December 13. NASA also reported November 2021 as the fourth-warmest November on record, 1.18 degrees Celsius (2.12°F) above the 1880-1920 period, which is its best estimate for when preindustrial temperatures occurred. November 2021 was the third warmest November on record according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. Minor differences in rankings between the agencies can result from the different ways they treat data-sparse regions such as the Arctic. November 2021 land areas had their third warmest November on record, while global ocean temperatures were the fourth warmest on record, according to NOAA. Africa had its warmest November on record; South America and Asia had a top-10 warmest November; North America and Europe had a top-15 warmest November. The contiguous U.S. experienced its seventh-warmest November on record, while Alaska had its eighth-coldest November."
See more from Yale Climate Connections HERE:
