Hurricane Darby in the Eastern Pacific
Hurricane Darby became a Major Category 4 Hurricane with 140mph sustained winds on Monday. This is the first major hurricane of either of the Eastern Pacific or Atlantic basin of the 2022 season. Darby is tracking west and is expected to gradually weaken as it approaches Hawaii late weekend/early next week. Stay tuned.
Tracking Darby
Here's the track for Hurricane Darby over the next several days. According to NOAA's NHC, Darby will gradually weaken through the week and upcoming weekend as it approaching the Hawaiian Islands. Stay tuned...
Severe Threat Tuesday
According to NOAA's SPC, there is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of northeastern MN and northwestern WI during the day Tuesday. This is a level 1 out of 5 on the severe scale, so the severe threat should be somewhat limited. However, some of the storms could produce gusty winds and hail along with locally heavy rainfall.
Simulated Radar For The Week Ahead
Here's the weather outlook from 7AM Tuesday to 7PM Sunday. There could be a few lingering showers and storms on Sunday across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes Region, but it'll be quieter midweek. Shower & storm chances return Friday into Saturday.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
Here's the weather outlook through the week ahead. The best chance of decent rainfall will be across the northern part of the state with some +1" tallies possible.
Weather Outlook on Tuesday
The weather outlook for Tuesday shows temps running close to average for Mid July with readings warming into the 70s and 80s statewide. There will also be lingering shower and storm chances mainly across the northeastern Minnesota into Northwestern Wisconsin, some of which could be a little on the strong to severe side.
Precipitation So Far This July
Here's how much rain has fallen across the region so far this July. Note that the Twin Cities has seen less than 0.50", which is one of the top 50 driest starts to any July on record. Duluth has seen nearly 1.50" and several locations across southern Minnesota have seen more than 1" of rain so far this month. Meanwhile, Huron, South Dakota has seen nearly 6.25" of rain already this month, which is the wettest start to any June on record.
Minnesota Drought Update
Here's the latest drought update across Minnesota. Thanks to mostly dry weather over the last few weeks, much of southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, abnormally dry conditions have popped up. There is even a sliver of moderate drought in extreme southern MN.
Weather Outlook Tuesday
The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Tuesday shows temps warming into the mid 80s with spotty showers and storms possible. Winds will be a bit breezy with gusts approaching 25mph to 30mph during the day.
Meteograms for Minneapolis
The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Tuesday shows temperatures starting in the mid 60s and warming to low/mid 80s by the afternoon. Much of the day will be dry, but there will be chances of isolated showers and storms will be possible in the afternoon as well. WNW winds will be gusty with some readings near 30mph.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows near average temperatures in the Twin Cities metro through midweek. Temps later in the week will warm into the 90s, which will be nearly +5F to +10F above average.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows near average temps through midweek before another heat bubble arrives late week and into the weekend. It appears that we'll endure several days in the 90s later this week.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
According to the NBM & ECMWF extended temperature outlook, temps over the next few days will be near average. Temperatures look to gradually warm as we head through mid July with a few more 90s possible. The second half of the month could be even hotter with highs warming into the 90s and possibly near 100F.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows above average temps across much of the Central US, including the Midwest.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows hot and dry weather in place across much of the Central US and into the Northwest.
Timing Summer T-storms Is Tricky
By Paul Douglas
"Timing has always been a key element in my life. I have been blessed to have been in the right place at the right time" said Apollo 11 astronaut Buzz Aldrin. Timing IS important, and trying to time summer thunderstorms is an exercise in futility many days.
Pop-up storms can bubble to life with little or no warning, especially late afternoon and evening, when strong heating of the ground creates rising thermals of warm, humid air. Nocturnal storms can spill into the morning hours - I've found the safest (ha!) time to plan something outside is midday. Of course your results may vary.
Fresh air pouring of Manitoba will lower humidity levels into tomorrow, perhaps the nicest day of the week, with popcorn cumulus clouds and light winds.
Heat begins to build again by late week with daytime highs near 90F Thursday into Sunday. A stretch of even hotter weather is possible next week.
According to National Weather Service Cooling Degree Days, we've spent 39% more than average cooling our homes since June 1. Whew.
Extended Forecast
TUESDAY: Stiff winds. Showers north. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 83.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet. Winds: NNW 5-10. Low: 63.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, winds ease. Winds: NE 5-10. High: 81.
THURSDAY: Sunny and warmer. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 65. High: 89.
FRIDAY: Sticky with a few T-storms. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 71. High: 90.
SATURDAY: Irritable sky. Muggy with T-storms. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 72. High: 88.
SUNDAY: Sunnier, drier day of the weekend. Winds: NE 5-10. Wake-up: 73. High: 89.
MONDAY: Sunny and just hot enough. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 72. High: 91.
This Day in Weather History
July 12th
1863: Unseasonably cool temperatures are felt across the state. Frost is reported in the Twin Cities area.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
July 12th
Average High: 84F (Record: 106F set in 1936)
Average Low: 66F (Record: 48F set in 1941)
Record Rainfall: 2.93" set in 1912
Record Snowfall: None
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
July 12th
Sunrise: 5:38am
Sunset: 8:58pm
Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 19 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 1 minutes & 26 seconds
Daylight LOST since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 18 minutes
Moon Phase for July 12th at Midnight
0.5 Days Until Full "Buck" Moon
1:38 p.m. CDT - Named for when the new antlers of buck deer push out from their foreheads in coatings of velvety fur. It was also often called the Full Thunder Moon, thunderstorms being now most frequent. Sometimes it's also called the Full Hay Moon. The moon will also arrive at perigee about 9.5 hours earlier, at 5 a.m. EDT (0900 GMT) at a distance of 221,993 miles (357,264 kilometers) from Earth. So, this will be the biggest full moon of 2022. Very high ocean tides can be expected during the next two or three days, thanks to the coincidence of perigee with full moon.
National High Temps Tuesday
The weather outlook on Tuesday shows above average temperatures across much of the Southern US with highs running well above average. Folks in the Pacific Northwest will be well above average as well. Strong to severe storms will be possible in the Northeast.
National Weather Outlook
Weather conditions through the Tuesday will be unsettled across parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast with a few isolated strong storms. There will also be monsoon thunderstorms possible in the Southwest. Areas of heavy rainfall will also fall across the Gulf Coast States over the next several days.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavier precipitation will be found across the Four Corners Region. There will also be heavy rain along the Gulf Coast and the Southeast.
Climate Stories
"'It's clear the lake is in trouble': Great Salt Lake reaches historic low"
"Water levels at Utah's Great Salt Lake reached a new historic low on Sunday, and officials project levels will continue to drop for the next few months. The lake's average daily surface water elevation was measured as 4,190.1 feet at the U.S. Geological Survey gauge at Saltair Boat Harbor on the southern end of the lake. Last year, on July 23, the same gauge recorded the average daily level of 4,191.3 feet, and the water level continued to plunge to 4,190.2 feet by late October. Officials believe the lake levels this year will also continue to plunge until fall or early winter when storms roll in and agricultural irrigation ends for the season. The persistent drought in the West, exacerbated by climate change, as well as water diversions from the Bear River Watershed have long contributed to its depletion."
"Alaska Is on Pace for Another Historic Fire Season"
"The following essay is reprinted with permission from The Conversation, an online publication covering the latest research. Alaska is on pace for another historic wildfire year, with its fastest start to the fire season on record. By mid-June 2022, over 1 million acres had burned. By early July, that number was well over 2 million acres, more than twice the acreage of a typical Alaska fire season. Rick Thoman, a climate specialist at the International Arctic Research Center in Fairbanks, explains why Alaska is seeing so many large, intense fires this year and how the region's fire season is changing."
See more from Scientific American HERE:
"Common approach to keeping wildfire smoke out of US homes doesn't work, study finds"
"When drifting wildfire smoke brings hazardous air pollution to cities and towns across the country, public health officials urge residents to stay indoors, close windows, and use air filters. New research from Stanford University shows Americans are getting the message, yet still rarely succeed at keeping smoke from entering their homes. Researchers led by Marshall Burke, an associate professor of Earth system science, analyzed data from consumer-grade air pollution sensors in 1,520 single-family homes across the U.S., as well as nearby outdoor air pollution monitors, cell phones, social media posts, and Google searches in English and Spanish between 2016 and 2020."
