Study: High-speed rail to Duluth costly, attractive

The cost of the proposed passenger rail line from Minneapolis to Duluth could exceed $400 million -- $50 million more than previously projected -- and there's no guarantee that federal funding will cover 80 percent of the project as local officials hope, the rail expert who recently completed a study of the line said.

But a potential partnership with the Mille Lacs tribe, enthusiasm from federal officials and unexpected support along the corridor have rail experts considering additional stations and running as many as eight trains along the route each day.

A yearlong feasibility study, expected to be presented to the Minnesota Department of Transportation and Gov. Tim Pawlenty next week, suggests the line, scheduled to open in 2012, could cost between $360 million and $400 million. That does not include the costs of the stations, said rail planner Alex Metcalf.

Metcalf is president of Transportation Economics and Management Systems (TEMS), a passenger-rail planning firm based in Rockville, Md., which prepared the study.

The study -- which will also be presented to groups in Anoka, Hennepin and St. Louis counties -- suggests the line will cost $2.5 million to $3 million per mile -- the industry standard, Metcalf said. But those costs were calculated with the hope that the Federal Railroad Administration's cost projections are on the same track.

And the Federal Railroad Administration controls the switch that determines which track this line follows. While proponents of lines throughout the Midwest traditionally hope federal funding will cover 80 percent of rail project costs, TEMS officials "believe between 50 and 80 percent is realistic." The difference covered by the state, counties and cites along the line and, possibly, private sources could range from a potential low of $80 million to an estimated extreme of $200 million.

Demand increases

"The demand in the corridor for this rail line is greater than we anticipated," Metcalf said in a phone interview. "Gas prices have really affected people's attitudes towards rail. And then there's the Hinckley factor."

Metcalf likes to compare what is being called the Cambridge line to another of his projects, a passenger rail line from Boston to Portland, Maine. The engine driving that line was Freeport, Maine, home of L.L. Bean and the premiere outlet mall in the Northeast. But Freeport has its equal and more with Hinckley, a city of approximately 1,600 that out-of-state rail experts treat "as if it had a half million to a million people," said Metcalf.

In other words, proponents of this passenger line are betting on Grand Casino in Hinckley, the tribal-run gambling oasis that the Mille Lacs band and rail authority officials say attracts 4 million customers per year. With rail access and a proposed shuttle from a Hinckley station, the odds of the casino enhancing attendance numbers are likely to increase.

Tribal task force

So counties such as Anoka and St. Louis may be the engines driving this train, but the Mille Lacs band is taking a back seat to no one. The tribe has its own rail task force and was represented at key rail authority meetings last year, said Tadd Johnson, the tribe's special counsel and director of government affairs.

"We're glad we're sitting at the table," Johnson said. "This is an important project that could change east-central Minnesota in a good way.

By the time the last Amtrak passenger trains ran between the Twin Cities and Duluth in 1985, the 150-mile trip took four hours, trains were often late, public subsidies were draining and ridership was falling.

Support from Washington

Now, 23 years later, county officials along the route -- with the blessing of Jim Oberstar, the Minnesota congressman who chairs the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee -- are trying to revive the line because they say times have changed.

Both of Minnesota's U.S. senators, Amy Klobuchar and Norm Coleman, have embraced the proposed line, which will reach speeds up to 110 miles per hour on a revamped Burlington Northern Santa Fe track and average 80 miles per hour (including rail stops). The 1985 line limited trains to 50 miles per hour.

"Everything we've heard is positive, exceeding expectations," said Dan Erhart, the Anoka County commissioner who has championed the Northstar commuter line and has campaigned for resurrecting the line from Minneapolis to Duluth for 15 years. Erhart said he would personally like to make a case for the line with Pawlenty.

"We are realistic and know that these projects take an immense amount of dedication, persistence and work in bringing people together," Erhart said. "We believe we can do this. But to get this done depends heavily on Washington."

Local rail authorities have been following a blueprint dictated by the Federal Railroad Administration, said John Ongaro, St. Louis County director of intergovernmental affairs. The next step required by the federal government is an 18-month environmental study that will look at wetlands, buildings of historical significance along the line, and archaeological studies of the ground, Ongaro said.

"It gives our engineers time needed to fine-tune our proposals," Ongaro said.