Storms Expected Late Monday into Monday Night - Quieter Severe Weather Season So Far

A mostly nice Monday is ahead in the Twin Cities, with a few more clouds filtering in during the afternoon ahead of late-day/overnight showers and thunderstorms. Morning lows start off in the low 50s with highs climbing into the mid-70s.

A few later day showers or storms will be possible across western and southern Minnesota, but most locations will see dry weather throughout a good chunk of the day. Highs will be in the 60s along the North Shore with 70s pretty much elsewhere.

As we head toward Monday Night, a few of the storms across southern Minnesota could be on the strong side with a Marginal Risk of severe weather in place. Hail and wind will be the main threats.

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We watch that late-day Monday rain chance continue into Monday Night, with a few pop-up showers or storms possible Tuesday. The next rain chance after that moves on Thursday. As we head toward the weekend, we could have the potential for highs to rise into the mid-80s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s - maybe one last blast of summer-like conditions?

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We have seen a quieter severe season across the state, at least when it comes to the number of warnings that have been issued. As NWS Twin Cities noted on Thursday on Twitter, across their county warning area in southern/central Minnesota and western Wisconsin they have issued a total of 134 Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Warnings so far this year. That is the least on record since 2000, and the fourth-least since 1986.

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We're continuing to see splotches of color pop up on the Minnesota DNR Fall Color Finder - most of it up in northern Minnesota - but there isn't anything "major" yet. You'll have to give it a few more weeks before there is a lot of color across the state. You can follow the MN DNR Fall Color Finder throughout the fall color season by clicking here.

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Quieter Severe Weather Season - Storms Tonight
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas

The severe season has been on the quieter end this year. Last Thursday NWS Twin Cities posted that they had issued the fewest number of Severe T-Storm/Tornado Warnings since 2000 and 4th fewest since 1986. Looking at the statewide numbers, 293 Severe T-Storm/Tornado Warnings have been issued - the 11th least on record to date since 1986 and 2nd least since 2000. The SPC has a total of 330 storm reports for Minnesota, 16 of which were tornadoes.

A couple of drought-related notes. The International Lake Superior Board of Control says that the Lake Superior water level dropped below the seasonal average for the first time since 2014 after monthly high-water records were set back in the summer and fall of 2019. NWS La Crosse noted on Thursday that the Mississippi River at La Crosse was at its lowest 7 AM river level since September 2001.

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D.J.'s Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Late day/overnight storms. Wake up 53. High 76. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind ESE 5-10 mph.

TUESDAY: Mainly cloudy. An afternoon shower. Wake up 60. High 75. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.

THURSDAY: Breezy. Scattered showers and t-storms. Wake up 60. High 81. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

FRIDAY: Looking dry and quiet. Wake up 62. High 78. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.

SATURDAY: Passing AM shower? Warm. Wake up 63. High 82. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY: Humid with mainly sunny skies. Wake up 68. High 84. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 5-15 mph.

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*Length Of Day: 12 hours, 37 minutes, and 15 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 5 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 12.5 Hours Of Daylight? September 16th (12 hours, 27 minutes, and 59 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/After 7:00 AM?: September 22nd (7:00 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/Before 7:00 PM?: September 27th (7:00 PM)

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This Day in Weather History
September 13th

1994: Lightning strikes and injures a 35 year old man in Stearns County as he opens the door of his truck. Witnesses said he was thrown 10 feet when the lightning bolt struck him.

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All eyes will be down on the western Gulf Coast and the Gulf of Mexico on Monday as Nicholas moves north and close to far southern Texas by the evening hours, producing heavy rain. We will also watch shower and storm chances from the Northern Plains to the Northeast, with some snow mixed in in northwestern Wyoming.

With heavy rain from Nicholas along the western Gulf Coast over the next several days, total rainfall amounts of 5-10", with isolated 15" amounts, will be possible through the middle of the week along coastal Texas and southwestern Louisiana.

The track of Nicholas will bring the system near far southern Texas by Monday evening, and inland across portions of the central Texas coast into Tuesday. Some gradual strengthening is expected while Nicholas remains over the Gulf of Mexico.

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More from the Duluth News Tribune: "Severe drought on Lake Superior's western shores brought the big lake's water level down in August, dropping below the normal seasonal average for the first time in more than seven years. Lake Superior dropped 1.2 inches in August, when it goes up by about a half-inch on average, according to the International Lake Superior Board of Control. That left the lake nearly a half-inch below normal Sept. 1 and 10.2 inches below the level at this time in 2020. The last time Lake Superior was below normal was April 2014, said Charles Sidick, analyst for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in Detroit."

Storms are getting stronger. So how do we adapt?

More from Marketplace: "Friday marked the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, which has already been a very active and destructive one. We're continuing our discussion with Paul Robinson about how tech can help us cope with flooding. He's executive director of RISE Resilience Innovations, a nonprofit tech accelerator in Norfolk, Virginia. It supports a wide range of startups that are focused on climate resilience. Some aim to train up a workforce that's ready to do flood-resistant construction. Others incorporate data to try to prevent flooding. Yet others try to aid our adaptability, like developing apps that predict and monitor flooding and map it in real time."

In Hurricane Ida's wake, satellite images show oil slicks in Gulf of Mexico

More from LiveScience: "Satellite images have captured aerial views of an oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico a week after Hurricane Ida pummeled the region. Hurricane Ida made landfall near Port Fourchon, Louisiana, as a Category 4 hurricane on Aug. 29, bringing sustained winds of around 150 mph (240 kph), torrential rainfall and a powerful storm surge, causing flooding along much of the coast. The hurricane also appears to have caused a sizable oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico that is visible from space in Sept. 4 images captured by a Maxar Technologies satellite."

Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser