Clipper Snow Saturday Night

We are continuing to track a clipper moving through the region as we head into Saturday Night, with the heaviest snowfall expected in the metro between about 7 PM Saturday and 4 AM Sunday. While expected snow totals have been upped a touch in spots, they are still generally within the 0.5-1.5" range that I think will fall across portions of northern/eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. In the metro, some 1" tallies can't be ruled out.

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Clearing Skies For The End Of 2023

While we will start the last day of 2023 with clouds and perhaps some lingering snowflakes, skies should start to slowly clear during the afternoon hours with peeks of sunshine in the metro before sunset. Temperatures will generally be steady in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Lingering snowflakes will be possible in southeastern Minnesota during the morning hours from the clipper system, otherwise, slowly clearing skies will work from north to south during the day. Highs will be in the 20s to low 30s across Minnesota into western Wisconsin.

Heading out to celebrate the New Year - or to the Vikings/Packers game - on Sunday evening? Partly cloudy to mostly clear skies are expected with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s - feeling more like the upper teens to low 20s.

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Quiet Start To 2024

Monday: For those celebrating the start of the New Year on Monday, or getting that last holiday travel in across the region, no major weather impacts are expected with highs climbing into the low/mid-30s under sunshine.

Tuesday: Cloudier skies are expected Tuesday as we all head back to work (and kids head back to school). We might have to watch for a chance of snow across southern Minnesota. Mid-30s are expected for highs.

Wednesday: A cold front will have moved through Tuesday, helping to bring a shot of slightly cooler air back into the upper Midwest. Highs are expected to be near 30F with partly sunny skies.

A closer look at the state for the first day of 2024 shows highs in the low to mid-30s with mainly sunny skies. This will be after temperatures start the day around 20F in the metro.

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Warm, Wet, Not-So-Snowy December

It's been a weird December, with warm temperatures, rainy weather, and not a lot of snow. We are on track to see the warmest December on record as temperatures at/above average are expected to continue through the end of the month. We're currently sitting at the 12th overall wettest December on record in the precipitation department. If we saw no more snow, it would be the 8th least snowiest December on record.

Looking at precipitation, this December will be the wettest on record in St. Cloud. Meanwhile, Duluth is sitting at its overall 7th wettest December.

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January May Hold A Few Wintry Surprises
By Paul Douglas

There is a cold, white, slippery substance on my lawn this morning. I'd like to speak with the manager. It's ironic: the less snow we see in a given winter, the more we gripe about a lousy inch of powder.

Welcome to the warmest, wettest December on record, with a statewide average of 2.6" of precipitation. In the metro December is nearly 13F warmer than average. Dr. Mark Seeley adds: "In both temperature and precipitation measurements this December is a singularity in our state's climate history."

Flurries taper this morning with clearing skies for New Year's Eve celebrations (or loitering on your favorite couch). Daytime highs poke into the 30s the first week of 2024, with Wednesday flurries, but little drama.

And yes, this winter honeymoon comes with an expiration date. The arrival of colder air may even spin up a real snowstorm 8-9 days from now. Too early for specifics but plowable snow and lows near zero the second week of January?

I see a milder winter overall with only a handful of Nanook days.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SUNDAY: AM flakes, PM clearing. Wake up 26. High 30. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

MONDAY: Sunny. Snowy coating begins to melt. Wake up 22. High 34. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 8-13 mph.

TUESDAY: Cloudy and breezy. Wake up 25. High 32. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Few flakes, cool breeze. Wake up 26. High 30. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

THURSDAY: Sunny and dry. Wake up 22. High 33. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.

FRIDAY: More clouds, still milder than average. Wake up 30. High 36. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SW 8-13 mph.

SATURDAY: Pasty clouds, still quiet. Wake up 25. High 37. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 5-10 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
December 31st

*Length Of Day: 8 hours, 49 minutes, and 53 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 0 minutes and 43 seconds

*When Do We Climb Above 9 Hours Of Daylight? January 10th (9 hours, 1 minutes, 15 seconds)
*When Is The Latest Sunrise? December 30th-January 5th (7:51 AM)
*When Are Sunsets At/After 5 PM? January 18th (5:01 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
December 31st

1999: It's a balmy end to the 2nd millennium over Minnesota, with temperatures in the 30s over central and southern Minnesota near midnight.

1937: Damage is done by a flood at Grand Marais, while 18 inches of snow is dumped on Grand Portage.

1913: New Ulm has its fortieth consecutive day without precipitation.

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National Weather Forecast

On the last day of 2023, a clipper system will be moving through the Great Lakes, leading to rain and snow chances in the region. A system over the Pacific near California will lead to rain and higher-elevation snow. Some scattered rain and snow will be possible in the Northwest, with some rain showers in Louisiana.

An inch or two of rain could fall across portions of California through Monday evening.

A few inches of snow is expected to fall in the Great Lakes, Northeast, Appalachian Mountains, and the Sierra through Monday evening.

Meanwhile, for the Ball Drop in Times Square Sunday evening, quiet conditions are expected with temperatures hovering around 40F.

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Earth Was Due for Another Year of Record Warmth. But This Warm?

More from the New York Times: "Earth is finishing up its warmest year in the past 174 years, and very likely the past 125,000. Unyielding heat waves broiled Phoenix and Argentina. Wildfires raged across Canada. Flooding in Libya killed thousands. Wintertime ice cover in the dark seas around Antarctica was at unprecedented lows. This year's global temperatures did not just beat prior records. They left them in the dust. From June through November, the mercury spent month after month soaring off the charts. December's temperatures have largely remained above normal: Much of the Northeastern United States is expecting springlike conditions this week."

Scientists uncover link between the ocean's weather and global climate

More from the University of Rochester: "An international team of scientists has found the first direct evidence linking seemingly random weather systems in the ocean with climate on a global scale. Led by Hussein Aluie, an associate professor in the University of Rochester's Department of Mechanical Engineering and staff scientist at the University's Laboratory for Laser Energetics, the team reported their findings in Science Advances. The ocean has weather patterns like what we experience on land, but on different time and length scales, says lead author Benjamin Storer, a research associate in Aluie's Turbulence and Complex Flow Group. A weather pattern on land might last a few days and be about 500 kilometers wide, while oceanic weather patterns such as swirling eddies last three to four weeks but are about one-fifth the size."

Low economic growth can help keep climate change within the 1.5°C threshold

More from the Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona: "A recent study by the Institute for Environmental Science and Technology of the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (ICTA-UAB) shows that pursuing higher economic growth may jeopardise the Paris goals and leave no viable pathways for humanity to stabilise the climate. On the contrary, slower growth rates make it more feasible to achieve the Paris goals. The scientific study, published recently in the journal One Earth, was conducted in collaboration with researchers from the University of Barcelona, the University of Leeds, and the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), and led by Aljoša Slameršak, Giorgos Kallis, Daniel W. O'Neill, and Jason Hickel. The article focuses on the period between 2023 and 2030, crucial for keeping the goals of the Paris Agreement alive and challenges the established assumption of high economic growth in existing scenarios of climate mitigation, since growth itself is a major driver of greenhouse gas emissions."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser