Last Weekend of February 2021
Last Weekend of February 2021
Believe it or not, this is the last weekend of February 2021 and the last weekend of Meteorological Winter. With that being said, the coldest 3 months of the year (on average) for the northern hemisphere will be behind us. Monday, March 1st is the first day of Meteorological Spring. The weekend ahead definitely looks milder than it was during the 1st half of the month. Saturday will be the warmest day of the weekend with the high in the metro around 40F. Snow develops Saturday night with 1" to 2" possible through AM Sunday. Temps on Sunday will tumble into the 20s with a cooler breeze.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY
* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Locally higher amounts possible.
* WHERE...Portions of central, east central and southeast Minnesota.
* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Sunday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow may initially mix with rain before becoming all snow. Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour are possible.
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A quick moving but complex winter system will impact the area beginning this evening through Sunday morning. A band of snow will set up from southwestern Minnesota up through northwest Wisconsin as a surface low deepens across Iowa. Snowfall totals generally look to be in the 2 to 4 inch range with amounts quickly tapering off on either side of the band. A narrow corridor of of 5 to 7 inches with isolated higher amounts appears most likely from near Sioux Falls to Mankato. Southern Minnesota may see more of a wintry mix at times, but little to no ice accumulation is expected. Precipitation will come to an end Sunday morning.
Snow Saturday Night
Here's the weather outlook from AM Saturday to AM Monday, which shows a quick moving storm system moving through the region Saturday night into AM Sunday. This quick hitting system will leave behind a narrow swath of around 2" to 4" of slushy snow accumulations from parts of southern MN into northern Wisconsin. Roads could be slushy/slippery through the day Sunday, so plan accordingly if you have travel plans.
Saturday Night Snowfall Potential
"A band of snow is expected Saturday night into Sunday morning, with 4"+ inches possible from southwest Minnesota through northern Wisconsin. Forecasting the exact location is difficult due to the small area impacted and uncertainties in the set up."
Saturday Weather Outlook
The weather outlook for Saturday shows fairly quiet conditions through much of the day. The nice thing is that winds will be quite a bit lighter than they were on Friday. The highest wind gust in the Twin Cities on Friday was 43mph, while the highest wind gust in St. Cloud was 52mph! Temps will be slightly warmer than average on Saturday with highs warming into the lower 40s.
Saturday Meteograms for Minneapolis
The meteograms for Minneapolis on Saturday shows temps warming from the lower 30s in the morning to near 40F by the afternoon. Skies will be a little sunnier to start, but clouds will thicken through the day in advance of our Saturday night snow chance. Winds will be around 5-10mph out of the south and won't be nearly as strong as they were on Friday.
Saturday Weather Outlook
Here's the weather outlook across the region for Saturday, which shows that much of the southern half of the state will warm into the 30s and lower 40s ahead of our light snow chance Saturday night. Also note the cooler air perched to the NW, this is some of the cooler air that will slide in behind the system on Sunday and Monday.
Extended Temperature Outlook
Here's the 850mb temp anomaly from midday Saturday to midday Monday. Temps on Saturday will still be running above average across much of the region. Note the cooler blues and purples that move in on Sunday and Monday behind our light snow chance on Saturday night.
Extended Temperature Outlook
Here's the extended weather outlook over the next 5 to 7 days. After a mild day Saturday, temps will take a bit of a hit on Sunday and Monday with temps running below average by nearly -5F. The slight cooler blip wont last long, temps on Tuesday will warm back into the low/mid 40s, which will be nearly 10F above average once again. The second half of next week could feature a string of days at or slightly above 40F.
Extended Temperature Outlook
Here's the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis through the 1st and 2nd week of March. Again, the first day of March will start on a slightly cooler than average note, but the rest of the week and the weekend ahead will be in the 40s. Interestingly, the models are even suggesting highs near 50F! Stay tuned.
8-14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook suggests warmer than average temperatures across the Eastern half of the nation, including the Upper Midwest. Cooler than average temps will lingering across the western US and into Alaska.
Saturday Night Snow. 50 Degree Benchmark Ahead
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.
Hard to believe that less than 2 weeks ago, low temperatures across the region were nearly 60 to 70 degrees colder than highs will be today. When factoring in wind chill values, the spread is even greater! After explaining to family members that live in other states, the only response I get is, "How do you live there"? Insert eye roll emoji.
Minnesota winters aren't for the faint of heart. You either love them or you hate them. Snowbirds found their resolution to the extreme cold and snow, but there are others that thrive and survive in the #BoldNorth!
The worst of the Arctic assault over. We may have a few brisk blips here and there, but I don't see any prolonged Siberian slaps within the next several weeks. In fact, extended forecast models are suggesting 50 degree potential next weekend. Keep in mind that the 30 year average for the first 50 degree high in the metro is on March2nd!
February ends with a little light snow this weekend. Sunny skies today give way to an inch or two of slush in Southern Minnesota AM Sunday.
Extended Forecast
SATURDAY: Mild. Snow develops overnight. Winds: ESE 5-10. High: 42.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Rain/snow mix likely. Winds: SE 5-10. Low: 20.
SUNDAY: 1" to 2" of slush early, then PM sunshine. Winds: WNW 10-15. High: 30.
MONDAY: Sunny start to Meteorological Spring. Winds: N 10-15. Wake-up: 17. High: 29.
TUESDAY: Sunny with a warmer SW wid. Winds: SW 10-20. Wake-up: 20. High: 43.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny and mild. Winds: W 5. Wake-up: 23. High: 40.
THURSDAY: More sun. More drips. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 24. High: 40.
FRIDAY: Storm sails south. More highs clouds. Winds: NE 5-10. Wake-up: 13. High: 38.
This Day in Weather History
February 27th
1981: Thunderstorms move across Minnesota, dumping 1.61 inches of rain at Montevideo. Many places were glazed over with ice.
1948: A severe ice storm occurs over central Minnesota. At the St. Cloud Weather Office 1/2 inch of clear ice was measured. 65 telephone poles were down in St. Cloud.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
February 27th
Average High: 33F (Record: 57F set in 2016)
Average Low: 18F (Record: -22F set in 1879)
Record Rainfall: 1.01" set in 1981
Record Snowfall: 5.5" set in 1893
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
February 27th
Sunrise: 6:53am
Sunset: 5:58pm
Hours of Daylight: ~11 hours & 4 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 3 minutes & 4 seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 2 hours & 18 minutes
Moon Phase for February 27th at Midnight
0.9 Days After Full "Snow" Moon
February 27th - 2:17AM CST - Usually the heaviest snows fall in this month. Hunting became very difficult, and hence to some tribes this was the Full Hunger Moon.
What's in the Night Sky?
Depending on where you live worldwide – that is, on your time zone – the moon turns full on February 26 or 27, 2021. From around the world on both nights, the moon will appear full to the eye as it arcs across the sky from dusk until dawn. In North America, we call the February full moon the Snow Moon or Hunger Moon. As dusk turns into darkness on Friday evening, February 26, you might see a bright star pop out rather close to the moon. That'll be Regulus – aka Cor Leonis or the Lion's Heart – in the constellation Leo. By February 27, the moon will have moved on in its orbit, shifting continually eastward in front of the stars. It'll still be in Leo, though, and bright Regulus will still be nearby. Want to know which constellation lies behind the moon? Visit Heavens-Above to find out. To the eye, the moon can look full for a few nights in succession. To astronomers, though, the full moon occurs in a single instant, when the moon is 180 degrees opposite the sun in ecliptic longitude. This full moon instant occurs on February 27, at 08:17 UTC; translate to your time zone. For us in the U.S., that's February 27 at 3:17 a.m. EST, 2:17 a.m. CST, 1:17 a.m. MST, at 12:17 a.m. PST – yet on February 26, at 11:17 p.m. Alaskan Time and 10:17 p.m. Hawaiian Time. Here's another way of looking at it: the moon-sun elongation is 180 degrees at the instant of full moon. You can find out the present moon-sun elongation via The Moon Tonight. A positive number depicts a waxing moon and a negative number a waning moon.
National High Temps Saturday
Here's a look at the weather outlook on Saturday. Note that temps in the eastern half of the nation will be warmer than average by nearly +5F to +15F. This is certainly MUCH warmer than it was last week and the week before. Meanwhile, folks along the Front Range and into the Northwest will be running below average -5F to -15F below average.
National Forecast Map For Saturday
The weather map on Saturday will be somewhat unsettled across the eastern half of the nation with areas of rain/snow across the northern tier of the nation. Meanwhile, widespread showers and storms will be found in the southern US, some of which could be strong to severe with heavy rainfall and localized flooding.
National Weather Outlook
Here's the weather outlook through the weekend, which shows unsettled weather moving through the Northwest on Saturday and eventually through the eastern half of the country. Some of the most active weather will be found from the Southern US to the Mid-Atlantic States, where strong to severe storms will be possible along with localized flooding.
7 Day Precipitation Outlook
The precipitation potential over the next 7 days shows heavier precipitation potential from eastern Texas through the Mid-Atlantic States where some 1" to 5" rainfall tallies will be possible. Some the heaviest rain will be found across parts of the Tennessee Valley and into Kentucky, where localized flooding can't be ruled out.
7 Day Snowfall Potential
The extended GFS snowfall forecast over the 5 to 7 days snows areas of heavy snowfall across the mountains in the Western US. There will also be a narrow strip of shovelable snow across parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region. The good news is that there doesn't appear to be any widespread wintry precipitation across the southern US like there was last week and the week before.
Climate Stories
"'Average' hurricane season may need to be redefined, forecasters say"
"There are fewer than 100 days until the 2021 Atlantic basin hurricane season begins and you may be asking yourself, "Wait, didn't the last season just end?" While 2020 didn't spawn the longest-lasting period of tropical activity on record for the Atlantic basin, although it was close, it was most certainly the most active season overall. With 30 total named storms, including three that developed before the official start of hurricane season on June 1, last season shattered the record for the most named tropical cyclones in a single year, breaking the previous record set in 2005. While that could be an outlier in historical data, recently published data suggests that what is considered a "normal" amount of storm activity in the Atlantic basin may need redefining. Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate with the University of Miami, published data on Twitter and said "the bar has been raised" for what can be expected in the new normal. Not only is the number of named storms rising, the annual average numbers of hurricanes and major hurricanes, considered Category 3 strength or stronger, are also on the rise."
"Extreme Cold Weather Kills Bats Across Texas"
"Large numbers of dead or dying bats are being discovered under bridges and overpasses in Texas after last week's winter storm. One Austin resident sent KUT a video of what she saw downtown under a bridge at Henderson and Ninth Street. "It was really upsetting," Amy Miley said. "A number of them were obviously dead, and then a number of them were not dead yet, so they were suffering." Watch Miley's video below. Warning: Its content may be disturbing to some. Texas Public Radio reports hundreds of dead bats were also found beneath I-35 in San Antonio. Biologists say climate change has caused bats to adjust their migratory patterns so that some spend too much time in the winter in places like Texas instead of flying south. "An extreme storm event like this is really unprecedented, and the bats couldn't handle the physiological damage," said Dr. Winifred Frick, chief scientist at Bat Conservation International. "They most likely froze to death." "The scale of this die-off … I think this is really unprecedented in Texas," Frick said. Meanwhile, some groups are scrambling to rehabilitate bats that survived. "We're doing our best, as are rehabbers all over Texas," Austin Bat Refuge posted on Facebook. "If you're local, we could use more 1 ml insulin syringes (29-31 ga) and 1 ml syringes no needles."
"Winter storm could cost Texas more money than any disaster in state history"
"Lawmakers and analysts say it is too soon for an exact estimate, but the financial damage from the storm has left state lawmakers scrambling to account for the storm in the middle of the 2021 legislative session. The winter storm that left dozens of Texans dead, millions without power and nearly 15 million with water issues could be the costliest disaster in state history, potentially exceeding the $125 billion in damage from Hurricane Harvey. The deadly 2017 hurricane devastated the Gulf Coast region. Last week's winter storm impacted every region of the state, a reason why experts and officials are discussing the possibility of damage and cost exceeding those from Hurricane Harvey. "All 254 counties will have been impacted in some way by the freeze," said Lee Loftis, director of government affairs for the Independent Insurance Agents of Texas. "That is just unheard of."
See more from Texas Tribune HERE:
