"Paul, don't get your undies in a bunch. It's just El Niño!" (Checks notes.) This was the eighth-strongest El Niño since 1850. There have been 28 El Niño events since 1940, but never one so lukewarm as what we just experienced. It's almost as if another factor could be coming into play? Baffling.

And now we're seeing record early ice-outs from St. Cloud to the Iowa border. Mostly smaller lakes, but many Minnesota and Wisconsin lakes will set records for the earliest open water ever recorded. According to the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, the state's lakes have lost 10-14 days of lake ice since 1950; as much as three weeks less ice on some lakes. El Niño? No, a warming climate, according to the DNR.

Expect low 50s today with rain showers Thursday. I see sunshine for the weekend with 40s; about 10 degrees milder than average. A few days above 60 the first half of next week? Likely. Accumulating snow anytime soon? Unlikely. Which doesn't rule out slushy surprises in late March or April.

If you're feeling brave/foolish take off the snow tires!