On This Date in Weather History
On the night of August 20, 1904, Saint Paul caught the brunt of a major tornado as it swept across the Twin Cities, hitting towns all the way from Hutchinson to Stillwater.
Here is a short video from the City of St. Paul that explains more about the deadly tornado.
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Hilary Expected to Soak Southern California
Well, you don't see this very often... Home Games of Padres, Angels and Dodgers Shifted from Sunday to Split Doubleheaders on Saturday due to a tropical system in the Eastern Pacific. Hilary was a major category 4 storm as of early Saturday morning with sustained winds of 130mph. Winds early Friday morning were sustained at 145mph! Hilary is expected to continue to weaken through the day Sunday as it moves into southern California with gust winds and heavy rainfall.
First Ever Tropical Storm Warnings For Southern California
This is an unprecedented event for parts of Southern California in what is the first Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings that have ever been issues in these areas. Thanks to abnormally warm sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific (partly thanks to El Nino) and a massive heat dome in the Central United States, Hilary's intensity will remain elevated as it approaches southern California on Sunday, while being pulled north on the western edge of the heat dome.
Tracking Hilary
Earlier this week, Hilary reached major category 4 status with 140mph winds. Hilary will continue to weaken as it drifts north toward southern California on Sunday, briefly as a category 1 hurricane, then into tropical storm status with gusty winds and very heavy rainfall. Flash flooding, mudslides and downed trees and power lines will all be possible as this system passes over the region through Monday.
Tracking Hilary
Here's the simulated radar from early AM Sunday to AM Monday as Hilary blows through. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be the primary threats, but flash flooding could cause mud slides and downed trees and powerlines. This will be a significant event for some, which could also produce some severe weather including a few isolated tornadoes!
Severe Weather Concerns Sunday
According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, there is a risk of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms in dark green below. Damaging winds along with isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out.
Extreme Rainfall
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, there is a "High" risk of extreme rainfall across parts of Southern California through Monday, highlighted in pink below. The heaviest rainfall will fall from Early AM Sunday to Monday.
Extreme Rainfall
The rainfall forecast from Hilary is expected to be quite extreme across parts southern California with some locations 6" to 10" or more through early next week. Again, the heaviest will fall from early AM Sunday to Monday with lingering impacts possible through the middle part of the week ahead. Flash flooding and mudslides will likely become an issue with this type of rain.
Another Hot Week Shaping Up
According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, it is going to be another very hot week with temperatures warming into the 90s a few days and possibly up to 100F midweek. Good grief! Note that our hottest temperature at the MSP Airport was 96F on July 27th, so we could certainly see our hottest day of the year this upcoming week.
Hottest Days of 2023 So Far
The hottest day of 2023 (so far) was Thursday, July 27th with a high of 96F and heat index values peaking around 105F to 110F. Uffda! Through Friday, August 18th, there had been (23) 90F days this year. Saturday was the 24th day and our average number of 90F days is 14.
11th Hottest Meteorological Summer on Record
It has also been a hot summer with readings running well above average since June 1st and good enough for the 11th hottest Meteorological Summer on record so far (through August 18th). Note that 2021 was the 3rd hottest and 2022 was the 17th hottest From June 1st to August 18th. With several hot days in the forecast, we're likely to see this summer jump up a few spots this week. Stay tuned...
Average Number of 90F Days At MSP
Looking at the last 30 years, the average number of 90F days at the MSP Airport is (14). July is the hottest month with an average of (6) 90F days. This year we've had (23) 90F days, last year we had (18) days in the 90s and in 2021 there were (27) days in the 90s. The most number of 90F days in any single year was (44) set in 1988.
16th Driest Meteorological Summer on Record
It has been very dry across much of the region so far this summer with only 5.79" of rain falling at the MSP Airport since June 1st. Interestingly, we're still nearly -5.50" below average this summer, even with the +1.00" that fell in the metro on Sunday, August 13th. For reference, the driest on record was only 1.65" set in 1894. Interestingly, the summers of 2021 and 2022 were even drier.
90 Day Precipitation Anomaly
On average, the wettest time of the year is in the summer, with the months of June, July and August seeing nearly 13" of rain at the MSP Airport. If we take a look at the 90 day precipitation anomaly, which dates back to about mid May, some locations are nearly -3.00" to nearly -7.00" below average (in red/pink). Note that some locations across southeastern Minnesota are nearly -8.00" to -10.00" below average.
Drought Update
After a decent, steady, soaking rain across parts of the state last weekend, there was a slight improvement in drought across parts of the state. Most categories dropped slightly, but there are still a few areas across southeastern Minnesota, that are in an Extreme Drought (in red). The last time that parts of Minnesota were in an Extreme Drought was back in mid December, nearly 8 months ago.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
Thanks to some hot weather over the next several days, it appears that we'll stay mostly dry across much of the state through the week ahead. There could be a few areas of showers and storms across the northern part of the state, but much of the rain will be isolated.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Sunday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Monday, August 20th will still be quite warm, but not as hot as it was on Saturday. Highs will be nearly 10F cooler than there were on Saturday. Another noticeably difference will be the dewpoint, which will be nearly 10F to 15F lower than they were on Sunday, which peaked in the lower 70s in the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday. Skies will also become a little more hazy as high clouds drift overhead through the 2nd half of the day.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
The weather outlook for Minneapolis through the day Sunday will be quite a bit more tolerable than it was on Saturday. It'll still be a bit warm and sticky early in the morning, but noticeably less humid later in the day with temps only warming mid 80s vs the mid 90s. Northerly winds will be a bit breezy through the day as well with gusts approaching 15mph to 20mph.
Weather Outlook For Sunday
Temps on Sunday will warm into the upper 70s & 80s, which will be a little closer to average for this time of the year. However, mid 80s across the southern part of the state will be a little above average, while temps in the lower 70s in northern Minnesota will be a little below average.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
Temperatures in Minneapolis on Sunday and Monday won't be quite as hot as it was Saturday, but it'll still be plenty warm with temps in the mid/upper 80s, which will be above average by +5F to +10F. As we head into the middle part of next week, we'll get another surge of extreme heat with highs well into the mid/upper 90s, which will be nearly +15F to +20F above average
Record Highs Possible This Week
With highs warming into the mid/upper 90s this week, we could be near record warmth! We'll be within striking distance on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, with the most likely day of exceeding the record being Wednesday with a forecast high (at the moment) of 98F.
Hot & Sticky This Week
The 5 day dewpoint and heat index forecast for Minneapolis looks quite a bit hotter and stickier as we approach mid week once again. Dewpoints will likely climb and hover in the mid/upper 60s late Monday through late Thursday. With temperatures warming into the mid/upper 90s mid week, we'll likely see heat index values approaching the 100F mark once again, which could prompt heat headlines once again.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
After a very hot Saturday with widespread heat headlines and feels like temps in the 100s, it'll be a little more tolerable on Sunday with highs warming into the mid 80s. It'll get hot again with highs back in the mid/upper 90s and feels like temps back to around 100F or better. The end of the week will get a little better with readings back in the mid 80s, but it'll be even better by the weekend with highs warming into the 70s by Saturday.
Weather Outlook
Sunday will be a hot and mostly dry across the Central
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14-day temperature outlook shows Warmer than average temperatures across much of the nation with the exception of the Northeast, where temps will remain cooler than average into the end of August.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the Western US looks a little more unsettled across the Western US. Meanwhile, drier weather will settle in across the Central and Southern US.
Outside Shot At 100 Degrees This Week
By Paul Douglas
The Twin Cities have enjoyed 100-degree heat a total of 66 times since accurate National Weather Service records began in 1871. The most recent: Memorial Day of 2018. Twice in 2012 There is a statistically significant chance MSP will brush 100F either Tuesday or Wednesday with a heat index near 110F. Ouch.
Southern California is getting battered by Hilary's spiral bands of torrential rains, with 1-2 year's worth of rain possible in 1-2 days east of San Diego and Los Angeles, turning dry desert canyons into raging rivers. Reno may get clipped by flooding before the soggy remains of Hilary race north and douse wildfires raging across Canada by Tuesday.
A Canadian breeze cools us off a bit today and Monday, but another wave of incandescent heat surges north Tuesday and Wednesday with mid to upper 90s likely; 100F not out of the question.
Little or no rain is in the forecast this week, just a welcome cooling trend by next weekend. Thursday? Sweat-on-a-Stick. One week from today? Low humidity. Easy choice.
Extended Forecast
SUNDAY: Partly sunny, cooler. Winds: N 10-15. High: 83.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and quiet. Winds: E 10-15. Low: 65.
MONDAY: Sunny and warmer. Winds: SE 10-15. High: 89.
TUESDAY: Dangerous heat index of 105-110. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 75. High 98.
WEDNESDAY: Sizzling sunshine, record heat? Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 76. High: 99.
THURSDAY: Steamy Day 1 of MN State Fair. Winds: N 8-13. Wake-up: 74. High 93.
FRIDAY: Breezy and less humid. Winds: N 10-20. Wake-up: 64. High 79.
SATURDAY: Sunny and comfortably cool. Winds: NE 8-13. Wake-up: 64. High: 79.
This Day in Weather History
August 20th
1904: Both downtown Minneapolis and St. Paul are hit by tornadoes, producing the highest official wind ever recorded in Minnesota over one minute (110 mph in St. Paul).
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
August 20th
Average High: 80F (Record: 97F set in 1972)
Average Low: 62F (Record: 40F set in 1950)
Record Rainfall: 2.23" set in 1891
Record Snowfall: NONE
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
August 20th
Sunrise: 6:20am
Sunset: 8:11pm
Hours of Daylight: ~13 hours & 50 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: 2 Minutes & 51 Seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 1 Hour & 47 Minutes
Moon Phase for August 20th at Midnight
3.1 days before Frist Quarter moon
National High Temps on Sunday
Temperatures on Sunday will be extremely hot across the Central US with highs running nearly +5F to +15F above average. Widespread records will be found across the Central and Southern Plains and also down across parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile heavy rain and strong winds will impact parts of the Southwestern US, where Hilary will blow through.
National Weather Sunday
The weather outlook on Sunday will feature showers and storms the Western US, where remnants of Hurricane Hilary will drift through. The heaviest rains will be found in the Southwestern US, but decent rains will lift north through the Intermountain West.
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through Monday shows widespread showers and storms across the Western US, where the remnants of Hurricane Hilary will be found. The heaviest rains will be found in the Southwest through Monday with flooding and mudslides a major concern.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook looks pretty interesting over the next 7 days. This is a pretty typical setup for what is known as a "Ring of Fire", where areas of heavy rainfall develop on the outer periphery of the dome of extreme heat in the Central US. There is typically no rain where the dome of hot air resides as it is a big bubble of hot, sinking air.
Climate Stories
"Climate Change Worsens Natural Disasters Alongside Racial Inequality"
"Another summer, another stark reminder of the reality of climate change. Wildfires on Maui caused widespread destruction and the highest death toll in more than 140 years. The southern US buckled under a brutal and historic heat wave. Flash floods inundated Vermont and other northern states. And, hurricane season has only begun, potentially fueled by record high ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico. Nature sends almost daily reminders that climate change is real and that it takes a severe toll on people, their livelihoods and their lives. The burden of climate change and the associated natural disasters that have become more common and more severe is unevenly felt. Black and Latino families, for example, are much more likely to be displaced by natural disasters – hurricanes, floods, fires, tornadoes and other events such as extreme cold or heat — than white families. And, when they have to leave their home, the impact from that displacement is much more severe for Black and Latino families as well as many families of other and multiple races than for white families. There is no doubt that climate change exacerbates existing racial and ethnic inequalities."
10 Facts That Prove the World Is in a Climate Emergency
"Signs of the drastic—and in some cases irreversible—changes that humans have made to the climate are now impossible to ignore. THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL on Climate Change (IPCC) does not mince its words when describing the disastrous effect that humans are having on the planet. "It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean, and land," reads its latest report. From heat waves and wildfires to downpours and flooding, 2023 has given us a taste of the impacts we can expect over the coming decades and centuries. In short, it's not good news. Without very significant reductions in greenhouse gases—beginning immediately—it is very likely that global surface temperatures will exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold set in the 2015 Paris climate agreement. Even if we do curtail emissions, sea levels will almost certainly continue to rise throughout this century and may continue to rise for centuries or millennia beyond that. Extreme weather events have become more frequent since 1950 and will become more frequent and more severe as global temperatures increase."
"How Hot Is Too Hot to Be Outside? We Asked an Expert"
"If you were lucky enough to dodge the poor air quality from wildfires that made being outdoors this summer near impossible, there's a good chance you're dealing with another threat now: dangerous heat waves. We all know Arizona and Texas has been setting unwelcome records for high temps, but even the Northwest is experiencing an intense summer heat wave with Portland, Oregon just clocked a new August record temp of 108°F. And the heat is no joke: There have been at least seven potential heat-related deaths at national and state parks alone this summer, the New York Times reports. So is it safe for you to (ad)venture outdoors? We spoke with an exercise physiologist to break down the temperature at which you should delay your plans or proceed with caution stay indoors."
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