Snow Tallies From Thursday/Thursday Night
While we saw melting snow as it fell during the daytime hours on Friday here in the metro, most of the accumulation occurred late in the day into the overnight hours. MSP officially picked up 2.7" of snow between 6 AM Thursday and 6 AM Friday, with Chanhassen seeing 4" and St. Cloud receiving 2.1". Heavier totals were spotted down in southeastern Minnesota, including 6.6" near Mound Prairie and 6.5" near Elba.
Next Snow System Moves In Saturday, Lingering Into Sunday Morning
It seems like this weekend has days that end in "y"... therefore I guess we have to have another snow chance rolling through! We will be watching a system following the typical path of a clipper Saturday into Sunday, though it'll move slower than a typical clipper and have a bigger precipitation field out ahead of it. The most concentrated and longer-duration snow with this system will fall across the northern half of Minnesota, starting Saturday and lasting through Sunday. The best chance of snow in the metro will be Saturday afternoon into the evening, though snow showers/flurries could continue to last through the first half of Sunday.
Where we have the longest duration of falling snow across central and northern Minnesota is where will we will see the highest totals, with 6-10" possible north of a line from Alexandria to Little Falls to North Branch and over a foot possible for portions of the North Shore. 2-5" look more likely farther south toward the metro, St. Cloud, and Mankato. HOWEVER - one big note here: we could end up with some accumulating issues like we had earlier this week (especially the farther south you are) due to warmer pavement during the daytime hours.
So we will watch those snow chances move in during the day here in the metro - with the best chances from midday onward (including for the Minnesota United home opener). Temperatures start off in the mid-20s with highs in the low 30s.
Strong winds are also expected with this system, and gusts up to 45 mph could be possible out in western Minnesota. This would lead to the potential of blowing and drifting snow along with reduced visibility.
Due to the combination of wind and snow, Blizzard Warnings (red) are in place across the Red River Valley and into North Dakota. Winter Storm Warnings (pink) blanket the rest of northern Minnesota where 6"+ of snow is likely. Farther south, in the area that has the highest potential of 2-5" of snow in central and western Minnesota (including St. Cloud) Winter Weather Advisories (purple) are in place.
Snow chances exist across the state Saturday with that clipper rolling through. Highs will range from the 20s up north to the 30s across central and southern Minnesota.
30s Continue Sunday & Monday
Even with the snow chances tapering off in the morning hours Sunday, we will remain mainly cloudy and breezy (southwest to northwest winds gusting up to 25 mph) with highs reaching the low 30s. Those highs will be a few degrees cooler on Monday, but we will still see some stronger winds and partly sunny skies.
Next System Possible Later Next Week With A Warmer Temp Trend
Forecast loop from 7 PM CDT Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Friday.
After a nice little break in precipitation from later Sunday through the first half of next week, we, unfortunately, look to be tracking another system that'll bring the chance of both rain and snow across the state for the second half of next week. Uncertainty exists, and precipitation-type could be an issue with warmer weather in place for daytime highs - so stay tuned for the latest the next several days.
While we will start the week off chilly, warmer weather awaits heading into the mid/end of the week with highs topping 40F here in the metro. Of course, we start to introduce those precipitation chances, so you may not completely get to enjoy the warmer weather.
11th Snowiest Winter So Far
The 2.1" of snow that officially fell at MSP Airport on Thursday brings our snow season tally up to 77.4". That's good enough for the 11th snowiest winter on record. We only need 0.9" to pull into a tie for the 10th snowiest winter on record - and 7.6" for a top-five snowiest winter.
The Indelicate Art of Predicting Snowfall
By Paul Douglas
Let's face this head-on: snowstorms in recent weeks have been um...disappointing. The rough equivalent of swiping right, only to cringe when the date shows up at your dinner table.
Meteorologists attempt to set expectations and some storms are easier to predict than others. As a rule weather models overpredict snow. We automatically discount amounts, but there is no question that as a profession, we overpredict snow. Predict 6" and wind up with 3-4"? Meh. But predict flurries and get a foot? You will be tarred and feathered in the town square.
The next nebulous shot of snow arrives today with a potential for 2-4 fresh inches of snow by Sunday morning, maybe 5" in a few spots. Most towns will be well over 80" for the winter by Monday.
Uncharacteristically, the sun emerges from hibernation next week, with a few midweek days at or above 40F. Pray for a slow-motion meltdown. I'm very paranoid about the risk of river flooding come April.
This winter has been milder than average - and much (MUCH!) snowier.
Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast
SATURDAY: 2-5" snow PM hours. Wake up 27. High 33. Chance of precipitation 100%. Wind SE 15-25 mph.
SUNDAY: Windy with flurries. Wake up 25. High 34. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.
MONDAY: Partly sunny and breezy. Wake up 19. High 32. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind N 10-20 mph.
TUESDAY: Sunny and crisp. Wake up 14. High 32. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 5-10 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds and wind. Wake up 22. High 39. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind S 15-25 mph.
THURSDAY: Rain ends as wet snow. Wake up 33. High 43. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind N 10-20 mph.
FRIDAY: Slow clearing, windy. Wake up 28. High 33. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 15-30 mph.
Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
*Length Of Day: 11 hours, 40 minutes, and 26 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 8 seconds
*When do we see 12 Hours of Daylight?: March 18th (12 hours, 2 minutes, 31 seconds)
*Earliest Sunrise Before DST Begins: March 11th (6:33 AM)
*Latest Sunset Before DST Begins: March 11th (6:13 PM)
This Day in Weather History
2009: Cold conditions arrive, with a new record for the lowest maximum temperature in St. Cloud for this date. The high temperature in St. Cloud was only 4 degrees, which broke the previous record lowest maximum temperature of 5 degrees that was set in 1948.
1878: Lake Minnetonka becomes ice-free due to one of the warmest winters on record.
National Weather Forecast
The active weather streak continues in the lower 48, with numerous areas of rain and snow expected on Saturday due to several storm systems impacting the country. Some of the rain and snow will continue to be heavy out in California, with heavy snow also possible in northern Minnesota. Strong storms are possible in the Mid-South and Central/Southern Plains.
The heaviest rain and snow will fall out in the western United States through the weekend, with several feet of snow for the Sierra and 3-7" of rain at lower elevations of California. Heavy snow will also fall across the upper Midwest, with over a foot possible along the North Shore of Lake Superior in Minnesota.
Antarctic sea ice hits record low, satellites reveal
More from Space.com: "Antarctic sea ice shrunk to a record low in February this year. Satellite measurements revealed that only 66% of the sea ice extent usually detected during the peak of the southern summer has been present in the waters surrounding the South Pole last month. The previous monthly record low was reported in 2017 out of a series of measurements that dates back to 1979, the European environment-monitoring agency Copernicus said in an emailed statement. The agency's Sentinel satellites found below-average sea ice concentrations in all regions of the Southern Ocean, the southernmost part of the global ocean that surrounds Antarctica."
Amid flood risk, New England homes are overvalued by $10b-plus, report says
More from Boston.com: "Future flood risk isn't fully baked into US real estate values, and that means American homes in flood zones are collectively overvalued by as much as $237 billion, according to a new report. That poses pricey ramifications for New England communities. The study — co-released on Feb. 16 by three environmental and climate risk nonprofits, the Environmental Defense Fund, First Street Foundation, and Resources for the Future — in the journal Nature Climate Change notes that the lack of flood disclosure laws in counties at risk have led to inflated home values. That makes communities vulnerable to a decline in property taxes when a flood disaster occurs."
The fight to define 'green hydrogen' could determine America's emissions future
More from Grist: "With the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act last year, a decades-long effort to get a major climate package through Congress is over. But the work of ensuring this unprecedented bundle of funding for clean energy actually leads to reduced emissions is just beginning. A decision with profound implications for that goal now lies with the Treasury Department, which must settle a debate over the best way of crafting a tax credit designed to advance the production of clean hydrogen. Scientists and climate advocates warn that without rigorous guidelines dictating who is eligible for the subsidy, the government could spend billions propping up hydrogen production facilities with enormous carbon footprints, wiping out many of the other climate gains catalyzed by the legislation. "Absent strong rules, we could increase emissions by half a gigaton over the lifetime of the credit," Rachel Fakhry, a senior climate and clean energy advocate at the Natural Resources Defense Council, told Grist. "The current emissions of the power sector is 1.5 gigatons. So this is completely contrary to U.S. climate goals. The stakes are extremely high.""
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