A soon-to-be-released outlook of monsoon rainfall in India will call for near-normal seasonal rain according to India's head meteorologist.

The forecaster said that last year's deficient summer rain, the lowest in 37 years, were unlikely to recur.

A man feeds a camel as monsoon clouds hover over in Jammu, India, Sunday, July 26, 2009. The monsoon season in India begins in June and ends in September. (AP Photo/Channi Anand)
The outlook is based in part on numerical modeling by way of supercomputer together with the consideration that one bad rain year is rarely followed by another.

Since 1901, about 20 years have rated as drought years; 17 of these were followed by at least near-normal rainfall.

Forecasts of weakening of El Nino in favor of neutral sea temperature conditions on the tropical Pacific Ocean is another factor considered in the making of the rainfall outlook.

The seasonal, or monsoon, rains normally spread over the Subcontinent beginning from south and east during early June then reach its fullest extent in the month of July.

For all intents and purposes, the rain-giving summer monsoon comes to an end by the last of September.

The seasonal rains are vital to most of the nearly 1,500 million people sharing the Subcontinent. Specifically, output of foodstuffs and fiber needed to support the population hinge upon the three-month summer monsoon.

In 2009, India, which normally yields the world's second highest output of sugar--while also being its top consumer--had to import record-high 5 million metric tons from the major commodity markets. These imports are said to have been behind a spike in raw sugar prices which peaked in February.

The 2009 drought also cut into oilseeds output.

The official forecast of the summer monsoon and its associated rainfall will be released by the India Meteorology Department in the second half of April.

Story by AccuWeather.com Senior Forecaster Jim Andrews.