A soon-to-be-released outlook of monsoon rainfall in India will call fornear-normal seasonal rain according to India's head meteorologist.The forecaster said that last year's deficient summer rain, the lowest in 37years, were unlikely to recur.
A man feeds a camel as monsoonclouds hover over in Jammu, India, Sunday, July 26, 2009. The monsoon season inIndia begins in June and ends in September. (AP Photo/ChanniAnand)
The outlook is based in part on numerical modeling by way of supercomputertogether with the consideration that one bad rain year is rarely followed byanother.Since 1901, about 20 years have rated as drought years; 17 of these werefollowed by at least near-normal rainfall.
Forecasts of weakening of El Nino in favor of neutral sea temperatureconditions on the tropical Pacific Ocean is another factor considered in themaking of the rainfall outlook.
The seasonal, or monsoon, rains normally spread over the Subcontinentbeginning from south and east during early June then reach its fullest extentin the month of July.
For all intents and purposes, the rain-giving summer monsoon comes to an endby the last of September.
The seasonal rains are vital to most of the nearly 1,500 million peoplesharing the Subcontinent. Specifically, output of foodstuffs and fiber neededto support the population hinge upon the three-month summer monsoon.
In 2009, India, which normally yields the world's second highest output ofsugar--while also being its top consumer--had to import record-high 5 millionmetric tons from the major commodity markets. These imports are said to havebeen behind a spike in raw sugar prices which peaked in February.
The 2009 drought also cut into oilseeds output.
The official forecast of the summer monsoon and its associated rainfall willbe released by the India Meteorology Department in the second half of April.
Story by AccuWeather.com Senior Forecaster Jim Andrews.
