Mirroring larger party, state GOP is deeply split

The Republican Party in Minnesota, where the GOP will crown its nominee this summer, is a perfect reflection right now of the national party.

It is all mixed up on the presidential race and struggling to hold an increasingly fragile coalition together.

"There's a real battle going on here for what it means to be conservative, to be Republican," said Andy Aplikowski, a local party chairman. "Is it religion, is it defense, free markets ... states' rights? There's no common message."

In Minnesota, as across the country, evangelicals are lining up behind pastor-turned-politician Mike Huckabee despite his record of tax increases. Defense hawks and social moderates flock to Rudy Giuliani. Many in the old guard talk up Mitt Romney as the true overall conservative.

And a group that includes Gov. Tim Pawlenty supports John McCain, who sometimes strays far from party dogma.

A sign of deepening divisions flashed earlier this week, when state party chairman Ron Carey declared his support for Huckabee. Within days he suffered a private rebuke in a closed-door party meeting for choosing sides.

All of this is happening against the backdrop of Minnesota's preparations to host the national convention and the growing chance that the fight may continue all the way to the convention floor.

Evangelical surge

A new ingredient in the volatile mix is a group some are calling "New Testament evangelicals" -- abortion foes who also embrace more traditionally liberal issues such as the environment, poverty and social justice.

These evangelicals have confounded party regulars with their fervent support of Huckabee.

"I like the way Huckabee resonates with people who are struggling," said Dr. Scott Wright, a Mayo Clinic cardiologist who still identifies strongly with his blue-collar, Kentucky roots. An activist and one-time legislative candidate, Wright attends an evangelical church -- "I don't waver on pro-life" -- and wants responsible spending, but "I'm interested in energy independence, good stewardship of the Earth, human rights, free trade and affordable universal health care."

Pundits have tried to pigeonhole social conservatives, Wright said, "but we're more than single-issue voters. We're deeper thinkers than just a label."

Economic anxiety

Among the party's more profound missteps, he said, has been its failure to recognize the mounting economic anxiety of middle-class Americans. "It doesn't matter how well off you are today if you think you might lose it all tomorrow," Weber said. "Republicans have not figured out how to address that."

Democrats don't have any magic answers either, he quickly adds, but "they're at their best when talking about people's economic fears."

Weber was just a youngster in politics when Ronald Reagan remade Republicanism in the 1980s, serving up a potent rhetorical blend of optimism, hawkish defense, smaller government and family values.

Peeling away God-and-country Democrats, Reagan built a coalition that stood for decades. But now, Weber said, the pieces are turning against one another with the melting away of Cold War enemies, the new challenges of terrorism, and a changing mix of social and economic issues.

Huckabee's record on tax increases, his slaps at the rich and his critiques of Bush on the war have elicited some of the sharpest elbows thrown in the race -- by other Republicans.

"He wraps himself in this holier-than-thou blanket, raising taxes in Arkansas and saying this is what we should do as Christians," said Brian Sullivan, a top Republican party leader, businessman and former gubernatorial candidate who is backing Romney. "There's no end to what you could justify on that basis. I would almost call him a Republican version of Jimmy Carter."

Four flavors

Sullivan sees four leading GOP candidates "each representing a different flavor of Republicanism, with their own bases of support. That hasn't happened in a long time."

Gov. Tim Pawlenty has long had a taste for what he sees as John McCain's straight talk and maverick approach, a tonic needed, he says, by a party that has spent more time looking backward than forward.

Once considered a front-runner for his strong anti-terrorism stance, Giuliani has found himself struggling for relevance after placing a distant fourth in the first few contests.

Former state Republican Party chairman and pollster Bill Morris said he's not surprised at Giuliani's tumble or the current splintered state of his party.

In Minnesota, Morris said, many of the moderates who might have been delegates for Giuliani have tired of going to caucuses dominated by the party's more extreme elements.

At the same time, Morris said, his polling shows that at least a third of the state Republican base is now made up of evangelicals.

Morris said the ground started to shift in Republican politics several years ago, when evangelicals began demonstrating concern for climate change, the poor, human rights and protection of religious minorities worldwide. "It was just an inkling at first," he said, "but it's kept growing. There's much more activism in churches."