Weekend Outlook

The weekend is here once again! And this weekend generally looks nice in the Twin Cities. On Saturday we'll see a mix of sun and clouds to partly sunny skies, with highs in the mid-30s. As we head into Saturday Night and early Sunday morning, some light flurries will be possible as an area of snow drops southward across the state. Sunday should see sunnier skies than Saturday with highs reaching the upper 30s.


Warm Start To December

It has been a warm start to December, even though the data is only through the first three days of the month. Our average temperature in the Twin Cities has been almost 6F degrees above average. For those wondering where that puts us in the rankings for the warmest December 1st-3rd: it's actually a sad tie for 48th place. The warmest December 1st-3rd was back in 1962 when the three-day average temperature was a surprising 51.5F on the back of a day in the low 60s for highs with 50s the other two days.


Embarrassing Reality of Winter Shrinkage
By Paul Douglas

Today I want to talk to you about a sensitive issue: shrinkage. Specifically, winter shrinkage. Minnesota winters are not as reliably cold and snow-covered as they were a generation ago. Ask any snowmobiler.

Autumn warmth lingers longer - and the spring thaw arrives a couple weeks earlier. Not every winter but most. Winter is the fastest-warming season for most of the USA, and almost no place is warming faster than Minnesota.

Normal weather ups and downs are now superimposed on a slow warming trend. It still snows - we get cold fronts, but the intensity and duration of winter chill is not what it was during the 20th century. The past 6 years have been the warmest since 1850, globally. One take-away: when it does snow play in it immediately! I should have thought of that back in mid-October.

Count on a few clouds today, followed by more sunshine and 40s next week. Models predict accumulating slush next weekend, with colder weather by Christmas. Dumb and Dumber: "So you're telling me there's a chance?"


Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SATURDAY: Patchy clouds, cool. Wake up 22. High 38. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.
SUNDAY: More sunshine, almost pleasant. Wake up 27. High 40. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
MONDAY: Intervals of sun. More napping. Wake up 27. High 41. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SW 3-8 mph.
TUESDAY: Plenty of sun. Fewer fender benders. Wake up 29. High 44. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SW 8-13 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny, 15 degrees above average. Wake up 30. High 46. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy, flurries north. Wake up 31. High 39. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.
FRIDAY: Some sun, probably dry. Wake up 26. High 36. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.


This Day in Weather History
December 5th

2001: An unseasonably warm December day occurs, with a high of 63 degrees at the Twin Cities. Summer-like thunderstorms developed and dropped quarter-sized hail at the Eyota Post Office in Olmsted County.

1979: Mild air moves in to Minnesota, with highs of 52 at St. Cloud and 54 at Browns Valley.

1928: Canby receives three inches of snow or greater for the third consecutive day.


Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
December 5th

Average High: 30F (Record: 63F set in 2001)
Average Low: 16F (Record: -14F set in 1873)
Average Precipitation: 0.04" (Record: 0.81" set in 1909)
Average Snowfall: 0.4" (Record: 7.0" in 1909)
Record Snow Depth: 20" in 1991


Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
December 5th

Sunrise: 7:35 AM
Sunset: 4:31 PM

*Length Of Day: 8 hours, 55 minutes and 52 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: ~1 minute and 14 seconds

*Day With The Least Amount Of Daylight? December 21st (8 hours, 46 minutes, and 11 seconds)
*When Is The Latest Sunrise?: December 29th-January 5th (7:51 AM)
*When Is The Earliest Sunset?: December 4th-13th (4:31 PM)


Twin Cities And Minnesota Weather Outlook

As metioned above, we'll see a mix of sun and clouds to partly sunny skies as we head through Saturday here in the Twin Cities. Morning temperatures will start off in the 20s with highs climbing into the mid-30s.

30s are expected for highs across much of the state Saturday, with a few 40s possible in southwestern Minnesota. A mix of sun and clouds can be expected for most. A little batch of very light snow/flurries will work southward across portions of the state during the day into the evening hours. Very little - if any - accumulation is expected.

Highs on Saturday will be about 5-10F degrees above average for most of the state. The average high for the Twin Cities on December 5th is 30F.

We will see a warming trend heading into next week, with highs in the mid-40s expected next Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday does look like the warmest day at the moment as a cold front moves through later in the day, knocking highs back to the low 40s Thursday.

And odds continue to favor warmer than average temperatures heading toward the middle of the month across the upper Midwest, including us in Minnesota and western Wisconsin.


National Weather Forecast

On Saturday, a nor'easter will be impacting the Northeastern U.S., bringing some heavy rain and snow along with it to the region. Some rain will be possible across the southern United States, with a few inches of snow possible in western Texas. A system will approach the west coast late in the day, bringing the chance of rain from the Pacific Northwest to northern California along with some snow for the Cascades.

From Friday through Sunday, at least an inch to two inches of rain could fall in some areas of the I-95 corridor, including D.C. up through New York City. The heaviest snow will fall in portions of the interior Northeast, where some locations could see up to a foot.

Here's a closer look at potential snow totals in the Northeast. Areas like Caribou could see over 10" with 3-4" possible for Portland and Boston.


More than 20,000 still under Bond fire evacuations as decreasing winds help slow blaze

More from the Los Angeles Times: "Firefighters on Friday were continuing to battle a wind-whipped wildfire that exploded in Orange County after igniting late Wednesday. The Bond fire began as a "fully engulfed house fire" in the 29000 block of Silverado Canyon Road, according to Orange County Fire Authority Chief Brian Fennessy. Gusty Santa Ana winds pushed flames into surrounding hillsides, where they met bone-dry vegetation that fueled the fire's rapid growth. At least two firefighters were injured in the fight, and "a number of houses were damaged, potentially destroyed," Fennessey said during a news conference Thursday. The precise number of damaged homes is still being assessed."

The man who spreads falsehoods in the Washington Post

More from HEATED: "Last month, HEATED reported that The Washington Post ran a full-page ad containing myriad falsehoods about the science of climate change. The article questioned if it was ethical for the Post, a trusted source of factual information, to profit from the spread of misinformation about a global public health crisis. The Post didn't speak with HEATED for the story beyond a brief e-mail statement. But the man who took out the ad did. Lawrence Gelman, a Texas-based anesthesiologist, told me he paid $25,000 to run the 1,421-word ad, which claimed falsely that "man's combustion of fossil fuels has no effect on temperature or climate." He also told me it wasn't the first time he shelled out cash to get his otherwise unpublishable views published in reputable news outlets. In April, for example, Gelman purchased an ad in his local Texas paper claiming COVID-19 was "manufactured" by China."

Climate change: UK aim of 68% emissions cut a 'colossal challenge'

More from the BBC: "Meeting the UK's world-leading climate change target will be a "colossal challenge", a government spending watchdog has warned. The National Audit Office says it will affect the way we work, travel, heat our homes - even how much meat we eat. In a report it says the cost of cutting CO2 is highly uncertain, but the cost of allowing temperatures to rise would probably be greater. The PM has vowed to cut emissions by 68% by 2030 based on 1990 levels. Making the new pledge, Boris Johnson urged other world leaders to follow with ambitious targets at the virtual climate summit he is hosting on 12 December."


Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser