Looking Better For an Early Spring This Year

Imperfect Meteorology - But Fewer Surprises

"Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence" said Vince Lombardi. We want perfection in an imperfect world. Meteorology is no exception. Forecasts are far from perfect but we experience fewer (unpleasant) surprises than we did 50 years ago.

How so? From floods and hurricanes to major tornado outbreaks, forecasters do a demonstrably better job setting consumer expectations. Fewer reports of "It came without any warning!"

Technology, including Doppler radar and weather models, are improving. NOAA just launched an upgrade for its global GFS model that could make it more competitive with the European model (ECMWF). Baby steps.

The million-dollar soaking that recharged soil moisture with 1-2 inch amounts is over. The next chance of spotty showers comes Saturday, but blue sky returns for Sunday.

I'm feeling a little more optimistic about an early spring. NOAA's models predict a run of 60s, even 70F in early April. No April blizzards in sight (yet) but I'm allowing some cautious optimism to creep in. Optimism. What a strange sensation.

Fairly Quiet Spell. No weather-drama expected in the near future with temperatures trending above average for the Upper Midwest. In fact I think NOAA NDFD numbers (above) are a bit too conservative for early next week, when temperatures may climate into the 60s. The best chance of a few hours of showers: Saturday.

More Early May Than Early April. There will be chilly relapses, but I don't see any cold fronts of note shaping up in the near future for most of the U.S. Colder than normal weather lingers for the Pacific Northwest, but a persistent warm ridge is forecast to linger east of the Rockies.

Praedictix Briefing: Issued Wednesday, March 24th, 2021:

MODERATE RISK of Severe Thunderstorms on Thursday (4 out of 5 on Severe Scale):

According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, there is a MODERATE RISK of severe thunderstorms on Thursday, which is a 4 out of 5 on the severe scale. This means that there is an elevated risk of large hail, damaging winds and even tornadoes within the red shaded area below. There is also an ENHANCED RISK of severe thunderstorms (in orange), where there is also an elevated potential of large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. While the severe thunderstorm risk is a little lower in yellow and dark green shaded areas, the risk of strong to severe storms stretches from the Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley.

Elevated Tornado, Large Hail and Damaging Wind Risk:

Simulated Radar 12PM Thursday

Simulated Radar 3PM Thursday

Simulated Radar 6PM Thursday

Simulated Radar 9PM Thursday

Flash Flood Potential Through AM Friday

Heavy Rainfall Potential

Here is the rainfall potential through 7PM Friday, which shows widespread heavy rainfall across parts of the Gulf Coast States and into the Tennessee River Valley. There appears to be a large swath of 1" to 3" rainfall tallies across much of the region, but there could be some 4" to 6"+ tallies as well. Another area that will have to be monitored for flash flooding will be in areas across northern Mississippi and Alabama, north to Tennessee and Kentucky.

Meteorologist Todd Nelson, Praedictix

Tornado Forecast: La Nina Year Could Bring Supercharged Season. A cooling phase in the Pacific has been linked to more severe tornado seasons downtown over the southern and central USA. NBC News has details: "After getting off to a relatively quiet start, tornado season in the United States is picking up steam, with experts predicting that conditions are ripe for a supercharged storm season. The forecast for an active tornado season is being driven by a strong La Niña, a naturally occurring climate pattern that creates favorable storm conditions across the southern U.S. This is of particular concern to scientists because some of the country's most severe tornado outbreaks have happened during La Niña events, including the 2011 tornado season, which was one of the costliest and deadliest in recorded history..."

List of Hurricane Names for 2021. The Palm Beach Post has a timely post, here's an excerpt: "...The World Meteorological Organization, which is in charge of hurricane names worldwide, announced that the Greek alphabet will no longer be used when a hurricane season runs out of names, like it did in 2020. Instead, once the official list of hurricane names has been exhausted, another list of names will be used. Hurricane season officially starts Tuesday, June 1, though the National Hurricane Center will start issuing regular storm forecasts for the Atlantic basin on May 15 this year due to six consecutive years of early tropical cyclones..."

U.S. Weather Model Upgraded to Better Forecast Extreme Events. I'm looking forward to a new, turbocharged version of NOAA's GFS model. Phys.org has details: "The National Weather Service has turbocharged its lagging forecast model to better predict extreme weather events such as hurricanes, blizzards and downpours, as well as day-to-day weather. By including much higher layers of the atmosphere, increased factoring of ocean waves and other improvements, the weather service's update to its Global Forecast System is trying to catch up with a European weather model that many experts consider superior. Tests for the past two years show the upgrade, which kicked in Monday, forecast heavy rains and snowfall 15% better five days out and improved hurricane and tropical storm tracks by more than 10%, better pinpointing storm formation five to seven days in advance..."

Skywarn Training. Doppler is great, but research shows the most reliable warnings result from a combination of man + machine, trained weather spotters who know what to look for. If you're interested in becoming a Skywarn Spotter virtual training is coming up son. Click here for more details.

We Are Underestimating the Power of Tornadoes, Study Shows. Capital Weather Gang has a good summary of an eye-opening new reports: "...The findings suggest that the actual proportion of violent, Plainfield-like twisters is upward of 20 percent. Researchers show that the National Weather Service is underrating tornadoes that move through rural areas, leaving little wreckage behind. The study is part of an ongoing effort to update the tornado rating system. Because tornadoes are so short-lived, it can be difficult to measure wind speed in real time, so the National Weather Service infers wind speed from the damage tornadoes leave in their wake. It then assigns a rating, from 0 to 5, on the Enhanced Fujita scale of tornado intensity. An EF-0 could uproot a sapling. An EF-3 could tear the roof off a sturdy building. An EF-4 or EF-5 such as the Plainfield tornado could rip a house from its foundation. These are classified as "violent" tornadoes..."

America is Now in the Hands of the Vaccine-Hesitant. A story at The Atlantic is worth a read: "...Yes, let's be frank: If vaccine acceptance tops out where it is right now, at less than two-thirds of American adults, then the pathway out of this pandemic could stretch and twist into the future. The virus will remain among us, if defanged for many, and harmful outbreaks could emerge as antibody levels fade. If patterns of refusal continue to develop along partisan lines, our outlook will be even worse. Because Republicans and Democrats tend to cluster in different places, even down to the level of neighborhood, a large partisan gap in vaccine uptake would likely lead to hot spots of infection. (When people who refuse a vaccine live near one another, the risk goes up.) But a better outcome also seems well within our reach. Although no one knows how much immunity would be enough to make the disease go away, Anthony Fauci has lately said, "If you want our society to get back to normal, you have to get about 70 to 85 percent of the population vaccinated..."

You're Vaccinated. Can You Finally Take a Vacation? Well, it's complicated, as a story at The Wall Street Journal (paywall) points out; here's an excerpt: "...Many countries—including most of Western Europe—still aren't open to U.S. tourists. Cases are rising in some areas; most of Italy, for example, just retreated into lockdown after a variant reared its head. You'll still need to practice social distancing and wear masks for the foreseeable future, especially when you are in public with people you don't know. Moreover, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which recently eased restrictions on small gatherings, continues to counsel against travel, even for the vaccinated. That's because there's still a risk of getting and spreading Covid-19 while away from home, the agency said. But the advice could change, according to a spokesman for the agency "as more people are vaccinated and we learn more about how vaccines work in the real world..."

.94" rain yesterday at MSP, 2-day rainfall total of 1.54".

45 F. maximum temperature in the Twin Cities on Wednesday.

45 F. average high on March 24.

50 F. high on March 24, 2020.

March 25, 2007: Record warmth stretches from southern Minnesota to western Wisconsin with 72 at Owatonna, 77 at Menomonie, WI, and 80 at Eau Claire, WI.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny and cool. Winds: NE 7-12. High: 50

FRIDAY: Mix of clouds and some sun. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 28. High: 51

SATURDAY: Unsettled, few rain showers likely. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 40. High: 53

SUNDAY: Sunnier, nicer day of the weekend. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 36. High: 58

MONDAY: Partly sunny, mild breeze. Winds: S 15-30. Wake-up: 48. High: 67

WEDNESDAY: Patchy clouds, cooler breeze. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: 34. High: 49

Climate Stories...

Biden Team Prepares $3 Trillion in New Spending for the Economy. Here's a clip from a New York Times story (paywall): "...Some White House officials believe the focus of the first package may be more appealing to Republicans, business leaders and many moderate Senate Democrats, given the longstanding bipartisan push in Washington for an infrastructure bill. That plan would spend heavily on clean energy deployment and the development of other "high-growth industries of the future" like 5G telecommunications. It includes money for rural broadband, advanced training for millions of workers, and one million affordable and energy-efficient housing units. Documents suggest it will include nearly $1 trillion in spending on the construction of roads, bridges, rail lines, ports, electric vehicle charging stations, and improvements to the electric grid and other parts of the power sector..."

Facing Sweltering Soldiers and Flooded Ports, NATO to Focus on Climate Change. Here's a clip from The Washington Post (paywall): "Hotter summers in Iraq are blasting soldiers sitting inside armored vehicles. Flooding is threatening the world's largest navy base. Russian submarines are prowling the melting Arctic. Now NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg wants to make global warming a major focus of the military alliance's strategy and planning, pushing environmental issues to the center as a security threat. The new push at NATO, which was approved Tuesday by alliance foreign ministers at a gathering at the headquarters in Brussels, signals a significant shift for the organization, which has traditionally guarded against threats from Russia and other political actors around the world..."

World's Biggest Coal Company Bets on Solar Power. Worldwide, coal consumption peaked in 2013. BBC News has details: "The world's largest coal mining firm is to "aggressively" pursue solar energy and continue to close smaller mines. Coal India Limited (CIL) plans to invest in a 3,000 megawatt solar energy project in a joint venture with state-run NLC India. The company also wants to compete in India's solar auctions and win projects by offering the lowest prices for clean power. It marks a major shift for the firm, which produces most of India's coal..."

Global Conservatives and the Myth of a Climate Change Debate. Acknowledging reality shouldn't be a political football or talking point. Harvard Political Review has an interesting post; here's an excerpt: "...If conservatives don't get up to speed soon, they risk slipping further into the irrelevance of their old ways. The "debate" over climate change is a myth that conservative leaders must cease to perpetuate. Overwhelming scientific consensus affirms that the earth is warming at historic rates. Claims to the contrary are not a valid political opinion — they are an alternate reality that is incompatible with basic fact. The conservative talking point that recognizes rising atmospheric CO2 but rejects strong human influence on that rise is also factually incorrect. Groundbreaking studies on historic atmospheric carbon levels found that over the past 800,000 years, carbon dioxide in our atmosphere has never surpassed around 300 parts per million, even in Earth's warmest periods. However, since 1950, CO2 levels have risen dramatically to over 400 ppm, levels never before reached in observable history..."

Youth Climate Activists are Back with New, Sharper Demands for Countries and Corporations. Vox.com has the post; here's an excerpt: "...This protest outside the bank's Manila offices was one of hundreds held in 68 countries on March 19, organized by Fridays for Future, the youth climate activism movement started by Greta Thunberg, an 18-year-old Swede. This time, kids, teens, and adults showed up on the streets and on screens to call out world powers' "empty promises" to cut greenhouse gas emissions. In recent months, the activists have persevered through quarantines and Zoom fatigue, and while Friday's turnout didn't come close to the 4 million who participated in the massive September 20, 2019, climate strike, the strong coordinated effort suggested they are still a force to be reckoned with..."