The eastern part of the United States has been bombed by storms this month, and most populations from Virginia to New England are crying uncle. Just look at these numbers: Philadelphia 52 inches, Baltimore 50 inches, and Pittsburgh 48 inches. In stark contrast, International Falls, Minn., has had only 6 inches of snow since Feb. 1.
Now, what does that tell you? Well, it indicates that the storm track has been across the southern tier of the country most of this month. The El Nino pattern that exists across the Pacific has a lot to do with this, but I'll avoid the details on that.
In regards to snow, I have a different take on things. I, like most meteorologists, do enjoy snowstorms. Wouldn't you know central Pennsylvania (where we are) has missed out on all the big ones. Our largest snowfall in State College was 13 inches back on the 5th. Now, that's quite a bit of snow, but it's a far cry from the 2 feet plus that fell in northern Virginia and Maryland during the same storm.
In the world of weather, there is no justice. Buy a powerful snow blower and it stops snowing... Light the grill and thunder starts to rumble... Buy flood insurance and drought develops. Mother Nature likes to play. What are you going to do? Okay, what do we have on the front burner this week? First, there is the storm that will take a swipe at New England Sunday night and Monday. The interior of New England will get anywhere from 2 to 10 inches of snow from this thing depending on distance from the coast as well as elevation. In addition, the coastline will be hit with another round of strong winds that will gust over 50 miles per hour.
The next potentially big-ticket item is a storm currently centered over New Mexico. The center will move to the western Gulf Monday, be over northern Florida early Tuesday then will make the turn up the East Coast Tuesday night and Wednesday.
The weather that occurs from Virginia to southern New England Tuesday night and Wednesday totally depends on how close the storm tracks to the coast. If the center moves farther out, then not much will happen north of central Virginia.
However, a sharper turn toward the north will cause accumulating snow from Washington to Boston.
I can't give you a definitive answer on this today. Why? Because computer model information becomes less reliable with time. A small flaw in the first six hours of a computer-generated forecast can magnify into a gross error four and five days out.
Rest assured we'll know more about what the next storm will do by this time Monday.
Story by AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist John Kocet.