How bad will the deficit be for the next governor?

When state economists and budget gurus get together to figure out Minnesota's deficits, they not only glimpse into the current budget but give a look into the future.

Tuesday morning, forecasters projected Minnesota would have a budget deficit of $994 million for the rest of this budget year. That's some good news -- late last year, they projected a $1.2 billion deficit.

Now for the bad news. The forecasters also projected the next governor, who will take office in January of 2011 after Gov. Tim Pawlenty leaves will have to wrangle with a $5.8 billion deficit.

But that number could grow.

If inflation were included in spending, which it hasn't been since 2002 when then House Majority Leader Pawlenty and Senate Majority Leader Roger Moe were running for governor, the number would blossom to $6.9 billion.

If General Assistance Medical Care, which exists in current law but has no funding after a Pawlenty veto, were included the number blooms to $7.9 billion.

If the Legislature and the governor opt to repay a K-12 property tax recognition shift, the 2012-2013 deficit would be $8.4 billion.

If the Legislature and the governor opt NOT to repay a K-12 aid deferral, the next deficit shrinks to $4.6 billion.

If all of Pawlenty's proposed budget were adopted it would end up at about $2.7 billion, or somewhere in the mid-two billions.

(Update: The Legislature's proposed budget, which isn't out yet, would also likely improve the "out year" budget deficit.)

No matter how big or small the number, it won't be a pretty one, economists say.