What we do know after six starts, though, are these things:
*He gives the Wild a chance this year that it flat-out wouldn’t have had without him. Minnesota had a 9 percent chance of making the playoffs at the All-Star break, according to their record and a simulation of the rest of the season from Hockey Reference. Since then, Minnesota has 2-1 and 1-0 wins on the road. Dubnyk was solid in the first; he was spectacular in the second, a blanking of Calgary on Thursday in which me made many tremendous saves — including a third-period breakaway and an underrated pad stop in the final seconds. The Wild would have earned, at most, one point in those two games had either Darcy Kuemper or Niklas Backstrom played. Instead, they got the full four — in regulation, which was particularly huge against Calgary — and have nearly doubled that playoff probability to 17 percent already. It’s still a long way to go, but it’s a good start.
*Though he’s a free agent after this season, he’s the kind of goalie that has found a long-term home in Minnesota before. Manny Fernandez was 26 and in search of playing time when the Wild picked him up. Backstrom was playing in Finland before the Wild grabbed him at age 28. Dwayne Roloson was an undistinguished journeyman before finding a home in Minnesota at age 32. Those three goalies have the most wins in Wild history. Dubnyk, 28, has put up respectable numbers on bad teams. Maybe this is the right fit for both the short and long term?
Even if this is just a rental, though, Dubnyk has proven — so far — to be a smart acquisition. There’s nothing like good goaltending to give a team hope, and that’s what the Wild (finally) has this year.