The resignation of state Sen. Dan Schoen following allegations of sexual harassment has already set off a fierce contest to fill the southeast metro seat he will vacate Dec. 15.
Two former state House members from the area are already in the race, and one of the district's current House members is considering it. The Senate's current 34-33 split between the two parties gives both sides a strong incentive: While the DFL doesn't want to slip further into the minority, Republicans would give themselves a bit more breathing room by winning.
Gov. Mark Dayton is expected to call special elections sometime early next year to fill the seats left open by last week's resignations of Schoen, DFL-St. Paul Park, and Rep. Tony Cornish, R-Vernon Center. Cornish is also leaving under a cloud after facing harassment allegations by several women, and apologizing for his treatment of a lobbyist who said he propositioned her dozens of times over the years.
The scandalous circumstances surrounding treatment of women by both departing lawmakers will give both races potent symbolic power at a time when women in politics are increasingly empowered to speak openly about mistreatment by male colleagues.
But the races — and what's likely to be a more closely contested Senate race in particular — will also be a harbinger of next year's pivotal state elections. They will test the enthusiasm of each party's base, and act as a proving ground for their organizational prowess. Money and volunteers will rush into the races, chasing an unpredictable and likely diminished pool of voters in an unusual midwinter special election.
"It's a springboard, and it creates momentum," said DFL Chairman Ken Martin.
For Minnesota Republicans working closely with the Republican National Committee for the first time in years, the Senate race will be an early test — in a largely suburban district that President Trump won — of whether Republican voters will turn out to support the party despite ongoing struggles to pass their agenda in Washington. Republicans are "working closely with local and national partners to elect a Republican" to the Senate seat, said state GOP Chairwoman Jennifer Carnahan.
"We are looking forward to flipping this Senate district red," she said.