3 Day Weather Outlook For The Twin Cities

Here's the weather outlook over the next few days, which shows dry and mild in place through early next week. Note that temps will be running nearly +10F above average for the end of September. In fact, these readings are more reminiscent of late August.

Drought Update For Minnesota

According to the US Drought Monitor, nearly 24% of the state is still considered to be in an extreme drought, those locations are located in the northern part of the state. Nearly 50% of the state is still under a severe drought (again, mainly up north) and about 76% percent of the state is in a moderate drought, which includes the Twin Cities.

Precipitation Departure From Average Since January 1st

Here's a look at the precipitation departure from average since January 1st across the region and note that most locations are still several inches below average, including the Twin Cities. The metro is still -4.37" below average since January 1st, which is the 57th driest January 1st - September 24th on record. Meanwhile, Wausau, WI is nearly +10.30" above average precipitation for the year and is sitting at their 3rd wettest start to any year on record.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

The extended precipitation outlook through Next Saturday shows increasing rain chances across the region and especially across the western part of the state. The best chance of rain arrives late next week with some 0.25" to 0.50" tallies possible.

Increasing Rain Chance Late Next Week

Here's the simulated radar from Wednesday to Saturday of next week. Areas of showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible, but it doesn't appear to be much of a severe threat or heavy rain event.

Sunday Weather Outlook

Sunday will be another quiet day across the region with temps warming into the upper 70s by the afternoon. Winds will be lighter than they were on Saturday with plentiful sunshine.

Meteograms for Minneapolis

Weather conditions on Sunday will be fairly decent with sunshine and above average temps for late September. Temps will start in the lower 50s, but will warm into the mid/upper 70s by the afternoon. South to southwesterly winds won't be quite as strong as they were on Friday or Saturday.

Weather Outlook For Sunday

Highs on Sunday will be above average by with readings warming into the 70s and 80s. It will feel more like late August as temps will be nearly +10F to +15F above average.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook through the last few days of September look very warm with reading running almost +10F to +20F above average. Weather conditions will remain dry and quiet until late week, when showers and storms will be possible. Stay tuned...

7 Day Weather Outlook

Dry and mostly sunny weather continues through midweek with highs running well above average. Showers and storms arrive late week and potentially into the weekend.

Fall Color Tracker

According to the MN DNR, much of the state is already experiencing minor changes in the fall color. Keep in mind that much of the summer was hot and dry, so some of the color won't be as vibrant this year. With that being said, there are already spots across the northern part of the state that are at peak color right now! See the latest update from the MN DNR HERE:

Fall Color Depends on Weather

Ever wonder why some years, fall color is so vibrant vs some years, fall color tends to be a bit more dull? Val Cervenka, Coordinator from the DNR Forest Health Program, shares how the weather can play a roll in those fall colors. Due to the hot and dry summer that most of experienced, it is likely that fall foliage could be less impressive this year with more tans, bronzes and auburns.

Typical Peak Dates For Fall Color

According to the MN DNR, fall colors typically start to peak across the northern part of the state in mid/late September. Peak color typically arrives in central and southern Minnesota late September and into early/mid October. Note that over the next several weeks, you'll notice some big changes in the landscape as we head deeper into fall.

Active Tropics Continue

We're past the official peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season, but things are still quite active with the remnants of Teresa and Hurricane Sam. Hurricane Sam on the other hand will be one to watch as it approaching the Lesser Antilles early next week. Sam could become a major category 4 storm with 150mph winds on Sunday.

Tracking Sam in the Atlantic

Here is a look at Hurricane Sam from PM Saturday when it was a category 4 storm with 140mph winds.

Tracking Sam in the Atlantic

The latest track on Sam lifts northeast as it intensifies over the coming days. Note that early AM Sunday, Sam could be a major category 5 storm with 150mph winds. The good news is that the worst of Sam appears to be lifting north, away from the Lesser Antilles. Stay tuned...

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps across much of the nation, especially across the Midwest!

Don't Sweat The Winter Outlook Just Yet
By Paul Douglas

Just because you're not paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get you. Weather-paranoia becomes palpable by early October. "Paul, will we have a rough winter? Just how concerned should we be?" Deep, cleansing breaths. We will have winter. It will snow. We will experience cheek-biting, nose-pinching cold. A Polar Vortex or two? Possibly, but reading the tea leaves I'm not convinced we're heading into a "Pioneer Winter".

Nearly all of NOAA's longer-range climate models (which did an admirable job signaling a hotter, drier summer back in the spring) keep much of USA, even Minnesota, milder than average into December. In fact most models show a (sorry) "mild bias" into February. Winters are trending milder over time. I wouldn't panic, at least not yet.

Lukewarm sunshine boosts the mercury close to 80F today, in fact we may see 3 or 4 days above 80F this week. Models show a cool front stalling overhead by late week, which could mean waves of showers and T-storms Thursday into the weekend. Let it rain.

Extended Forecast

SUNDAY:Lukewarm sunshine. Winds: SW 8-13. High: 80.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear & quiet. Winds: SE 5. Low: 55.

MONDAY: Sunny and pleasant. Winds: NE 7-12. High: 78.

TUESDAY: Hello August. Warm sunshine. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: 56. High: 82.

WEDNESDAY: Blue sky, shorts recommended. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 61. High: 83.

THURSDAY: Balmy, PM showers, T-storms. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 63 High: 81.

FRIDAY: Front stalls, showers linger. Winds: NE 5-10. Wake-up: 59. High: 75.

SATURDAY:Unsettled, another shower or two? Winds: N 5-10. Wake-up: 60. High: 72.

This Day in Weather History

September 26th

1980: Cold morning lows are recorded, with 20 degrees at Tower and 16 at Embarrass.

1942: 1.8 inches of snow falls in St. Cloud.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

September 26th

Average High: 67F(Record: 87F set in 1923)

Average Low: 48F (Record: 27Fset in 1965)

Record Rainfall: 1.81" set in 1930

Record Snowfall: 1.7" set in 1942

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

August 15th

Sunrise: 7:05am

Sunset: 7:02pm

Hours of Daylight: ~11hours & 57minutes

Daylight LOSTsinceyesterday: ~ 3 minute & 6 seconds

Daylight LOSTsince SummerSolstice (June 20th): ~3 Hour & 40 Minutes

Moon Phase for September 26th at Midnight

1.8 Days Before Last Quarter Moon

What's in the Night Sky?

"Late at night on September 25, 26 and 27, 2021, watch as thewaning gibbous moonsweeps in front of the constellationTaurus the Bull. You'll be looking at late evening, or not much before midnight. The bright moon might make it tough to see the starlit figure of the Bull on these nights. But you should be able to make outAldebaran, Taurus' brightest star, as well as the tiny, misty, dipper-shapedPleiades star cluster. Then, when the moon moves away, look for the V-shaped Face of the Bull itself. The bright star Aldebaran marks one tip of the V."

See more from Earth Sky HERE:

National High Temps Sunday

The weather outlook on Sunday shows near average temps along and east of the Mississippi River. Temps across the Plains and the Midwest will be running well above average across much of the Central US with a few records possible across parts of the Central Plains.

National Weather Outlook

The national weather outlook into early next week looks fairly quiet across the Central US. The best chance of showers and storms will be found in the Desert Southwest and also in the Pacific Northwest.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center heavier precipitation potential will be found across parts of the Southern US as we head into early next week. Heavy rains will exit the Northern New England Region over the weekend with some of the heaviest precipitation being found in the Pacific Northwest.

Climate Stories

"Fungi Might Have Helped Drag the Planet Out of its 'Snowball Earth' Phase"

"Nearly a billion years ago, the planet was almost wholly encased in thousands of feet of ice—and then, somehow, it emerged. The drop stones in thetropical rocks were among the first clues that something strange once happened to planet Earth. Drop stones are rocks that land on the seabed, sometimes with so much force that the sediment deforms. But there shouldn't have been any drop stones in these rocks. Glaciers are the most usual source; ice sheet bellies collect rocks like ticks, then shed them when they put to sea. But the drop stone–bearing rocks were formed under what were intermittently hot tropical waters, evident from the bands of limestone interspersed with them. Surely there couldn't have been glaciers in the tropics, right?Right?"

See more from Scientific American HERE:

"Fires Fuel New Risks to California Farmworkers"

"On a mild December evening in 2017, Southern California's powerful Santa Ana winds fueled a massive wildfire after smashing power lines together and carrying molten bits of metal onto the dry ground. The Thomas Fire, California's largest at the time, ultimately torched440 square milesand cost Ventura and Santa Barbara counties' $3.5 billion agricultural industry nearly $200 million in damaged crops and buildings. Researchers are still tallying the impacts on farmworkers, who were especially hard hit by the smoke and falling ash, the stress of working near a raging fire and, in some cases, lost workdays. Exposure to wildfire smoke is a growing threat to farmworkers, many of whom are forced to toil through fires that are not just more frequent and severe but more toxic than ever. And as each year brings bigger and more destructive fires, scientists are scrambling to identify all the chemicals in smoke and the risks they pose."

See more from Yahoo HERE:

"How climate change gave rise to a monster mosquito season"

"Thanks to climate-fueled extreme weather, mosquitoes are everywhere this year. Summer may be officially over, but mosquito season is showing no sign of abating. If you're cursing the influx of winged whiners, save some vitriol for climate change, which definitely played a role in exacerbating this year's mosquitogeddon.It was an unusually warm summer — thehottest summer on recordfor the contiguous United States — and that has helped mosquitoes thrive. But experts say the chief reasons for the explosion in mosquito populations this year are the season's record-breaking storms and above-average rainfall in many states.Parts of the Northeastreceived a foot of rainin just three weeks in July, due to a series of back-to-back thunderstorms and the remnants of Hurricane Elsa. In August, Tropical Storm Fred and its remnants doused the East Coast from Florida to Massachusetts, and Tropical Storm Henri hit New England head on. Less than two weeks later, Ida soaked the Gulf Coast as a Category 4 and blasted the Northeast with record-breaking amounts of rainfall as a disorganized storm system. Meanwhile, in the Southwest, a"super" monsoonseasoneased drought conditionsin parts of Arizona, producing Tuscon's wettest month on record in July."

See more from Grist HERE:

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