
The Vikings made the easy, sane and proper decision Monday, cutting rookie kicker Daniel Carlson and signing highly accurate veteran Dan Bailey.
I would have downgraded to "probably" had a kicker of Bailey's esteem not been available, but a 30-year-old who is the second-most accurate kicker in NFL history is a no-brainer. He's made 88.2 percent of his career field goals, including 90 percent when kicking indoors. He is an obvious upgrade over Carlson and an upgrade, too, over last year's kicker, Kai Forbath. In short, he's a proven commodity and provides the potential for the stability craved by drafting Carlson. If he kicks well, Bailey could be with the Vikings for another half-dozen years, at least.
In the aftermath of this whole mess, though, this question could still use some examining: When the Vikings drafted Carlson in the fifth round this year, making him the clear favorite and heir apparent to succeed Forbath, was their mistake in choosing a kicker — period — instead of augmenting another position of need … or was their mistake simply in picking a kicker unfit for the job? (Or, as we'll examine last, was it not a mistake at all given the potential that Carlson will rebound from this and become a prolific kicker who makes the Vikings regret Monday's decision?)
*On the first point, the evidence seems clear: drafting a kicker is a risky proposition.
I looked at kickers drafted in the past, and the results are spotty — at least not for the drafting team.
Between 2013 and 2017, eight placekickers were drafted. Five of them were on opening day rosters this year, but only one — Zane Gonzalez of the Browns, a 2017 fifth-round pick — was still with the team that drafted him. And Gonzalez is now out of a job after an awful performance Sunday that rivaled that of Carlson.
The other four — Jake Elliott, Harrison Butker, Caleb Sturgis and Dustin Hopkins — were either training camp cuts who latched on and found success with other teams or bounced around after initial stints with the team that drafted them.
That seems to be the opposite of stability when it comes to drafting a kicker.