Cooler Weather Ahead - Showers Friday, Lingering Into Early Saturday

While we saw a hot and blustery Thursday across the region, a cold front is slowly working through the region today. That is ushering in cooler weather to end the week (and into the weekend) and is bringing the chance of showery weather with it. The better chances of rain in the metro will be from midday onward, as the chances for rain are actually higher behind the front. This will be mostly in the form of showers, but a spare rumble of thunder can't be ruled out. Temperatures will remain steady, if not slightly fall, through the 60s during the day.

Looking statewide, the warmest temperatures on Friday will be in southeast Minnesota just ahead of the cold front as it moves through during the day. Down there, temperatures will reach the 70s. The rest of the state will be in the 60s. We'll watch rain chances (mainly showers but can't rule out an isolated storm) from west-central to northeast Minnesota southeastward, with drier and sunnier skies the closer to get to the conjunction of the Minnesota/North Dakota/Canada borders.

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The rain behind this cold front will be a touch slow to move out, so we will see the potential of a few showers lingering on into the day on Saturday. While the best chance in the metro will be in the morning hours, they will remain in southeast Minnesota throughout much of the day. The rain chance you see Sunday is very slight - better chances will exist south and east across parts of Wisconsin and Iowa. Highs this weekend will be in the upper 60s to around 70F.

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While rainfall amounts are expected to be about a quarter to half an inch across many areas where rain does fall the next few days, we could see much heavier totals (1-4") down in Southeastern Minnesota, especially if that rain does hold steady Saturday (and maybe into Sunday) across the region.

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Here's a handy map of typical peak fall colors from the MN DNR. This ranges from mid/late September in far northern Minnesota to mid-October in southern parts of the state.

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Puddles Today Signal A Cooler Weekend Ahead
By Paul Douglas

Hurricane Earl will brush Bermuda with high surf and flooding rains again today. While Hurricane Kay grinds up Baja California, weakening slowly over colder water; still capable of dumping flooding rains on southern California by Saturday. We interrupt this heat wave for a gently-used hurricane. Weird, but not unprecedented. Hurricanes often relieve heat and drought.

To those fretting about another colder than average La Nina winter, consider this. There were no tropical storms in August, and NOAA's spring forecast of another above-average hurricane season in the Atlantic may turn out to be a bust. These are gifted forecasters, but predicting weather trends months into the future is more art than science. Sobering but true.

Moderate to severe drought lingers over the metro and central Minnesota. A rainfall deficit lingers.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

FRIDAY: A little rain is likely. Wake up 67. High 69 (with dropping temperatures). Chance of precipitation 90%. Wind N 10-15 mph.

SATURDAY: More clouds than sunshine. Wake up 55. High 72. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind N 8-13 mph.

MONDAY: More sunshine, quite pleasant. Wake up 57. High 74. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 7-12 mph.

TUESDAY: Sunny and warmer. Wake up 56. High 80. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 3-8 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny, feels like summer again. Wake up 60. High 86. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

THURSDAY: Sticky sun, late thunder? Wake up 68. High 89. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind SW 10-15 mph.

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*Length Of Day: 12 hours, 50 minutes, and 18 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 3 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 12 Hours Of Daylight?: September 26th (11 hours, 57 minutes, 40 seconds)
*When Does The Sun Start Rising At/After 7 AM?: September 22nd (7:00 AM)
*When Does The Sun Start Setting At/Before 7 PM?: September 27th (7:00 PM)

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This Day in Weather History
September 9th

1979: 1 3/4 inch hail falls in Douglas County.

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On Friday, we will continue to see heavy rain across portions of the Southeast due to an area of low pressure and stalled-out frontal boundary. Moisture from Hurricane Kay off of the Yucatan Peninsula will be moving northward into the Southwest, causing heavy rain and bringing a flood concern to the region. A frontal boundary in the upper Midwest will bring those areas showers and some rumbles of thunder.

Two areas of especially heavy rain are expected through the first half of the weekend - one in coastal areas of the Southeast, and a second in southern California. In these areas, rainfall amounts of 3"+ will be possible.

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California's grid is about to get an overhaul. It needs it.

After a choppy first half, the outlook for solar turns bright

More from Renewable Energy World: "Unprecedented investments in clean energy and climate change in the Inflation Reduction Act have greatly improved the outlook for the solar industry's growth in the U.S. following a first half to the year dampened by tariff risks and supply chain constraints, according to a new market report. The Solar Energy Industries Association and Wood Mackenzie published a report that increases their baseline forecast for solar growth over the next five years by 40% in response to the historic law. The groups expect the U.S. to add 162 GW of new capacity through 2027, a 62 GW boost from a previous estimate. If the projections hold up, installed solar capacity in the U.S. could reach 336 GW at that point."

Green hydrogen: Short-term scarcity, long-term uncertainty

More from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research: "Green hydrogen from renewable electricity and derived e-fuels are uniquely valuable for achieving climate neutrality. They can replace fossil fuels in industry or long-distance transport where direct electrification is infeasible. However, even if production capacities grow as fast as wind and solar power, the growth-rate champions, green hydrogen supply remains scarce in the short-term and uncertain in the long term, a new analysis published in the journal Nature Energy shows. Green hydrogen would likely supply less than 1 % of final energy globally by 2035, while the European Union might hit the 1% mark a little earlier by about 2030. In particular, the EU's 2030 plan to supply 10 million tons of green hydrogen with domestic capacity will be out of reach, unless policy makers can foster growth that is unprecedented for energy technologies. By 2040, a breakthrough to higher green hydrogen shares is more likely, but large uncertainties prevail, which increase today's investment risks. However, history shows that emergency-like policy measures could yield substantially higher growth rates, expediting the breakthrough and increasing the likelihood of future hydrogen availability."

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- D.J. Kayser