Cloudy Through The Holiday Weekend - Rain For Christmas

After sunshine on Wednesday, a peek or two of sun can't be ruled out on Thursday but skies will be mainly cloudy in the metro. Morning temperatures will start around 30F with highs around 40F.

A cloudy day can be expected statewide, with highs in the 30s to low 40s. These highs are still quite above average as we head into the last third of December.

Forecast loop from 6 PM Thursday to 6 PM Friday.

As we head through Thursday Night into Friday, we will be watching a weak disturbance bringing the potential of some light drizzle/freezing drizzle across central and eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin.

_______________________________________________

Friday: Some light drizzle can't be ruled out - especially in the morning - otherwise, cloudy conditions are expected as we head toward the extended holiday weekend. Highs will climb to the mid-40s.

Saturday: Another surge of warmth comes into the region with highs climbing to around 50F. Cloudy skies will stick around.

While temperatures will fall quite short of the record high for Saturday in the Twin Cities, records will be possible in Rochester, Brainerd, and Park Rapids.

Here's a look at highs vs. records across the state for Christmas Eve. The Twin Cities record high for the day is 46F in 1957, which could easily be broken. We could also see record highs in Rochester, St. Cloud, Brainerd, Park Rapids, and Baudette.

Forecast loop from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM Tuesday.

As we head into the second half of the holiday weekend and early next week, we will be watching a system moving into the Central Plains and eventually into the Great Lakes by mid-next week. This is likely to bring the metro wet weather for Christmas Eve, with a break early Christmas morning before more rain moves back in. The northern side of the system could deal with some wintry precipitation, which will come into better detail as we get closer and find out how quickly this system moves out of the region. However, I won't rule out a few snowflakes - at least at times - in the metro on Tuesday and potentially next Wednesday.

So as we look toward Christmas Day on Monday, it'll be a rainy - not snowy - Christmas in the metro, with temperatures remaining in the low to mid-40s throughout the day.

A Powerful And Persistent El Nino Signal
By Paul Douglas

Welcome to the Capitol of El Nino! Unusually mild ocean water in the equatorial Pacific is thousands of miles southwest of home, but some of the most eye-opening warming effects are in the Upper Midwest. Between Friday and Tuesday temperatures will be 20-25F warmer than average from Minnesota into Iowa and western Wisconsin.

This mild signal is amazingly resilient. Weather models can't seem to keep up with the impacts of this Super El Nino, possibly the most robust warming since 1997-98. A lack of snowcover means the sun's energy can go into heating the air vs. melting snow.

ECMWF ensemble models keep us above 0F in January, with a better chance of snow. I'm skeptical on both counts but we'll see.

Clouds increase today with a little light rain Friday. Heavier rain arrives Christmas Eve, lingering into Wednesday of next week with a little ice up north. 4-5 days of rain?

_______________________________________________

Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

THURSDAY: Clouds increase. Wake up 31. High 41. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SE 10-15 mph.

FRIDAY: A little light rain. Wake up 37. High 45. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind SE 7-12 mph.

SATURDAY: Cloudy and mild. Few sprinkles. Wake up 41. High 50. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind S 8-13 mph.

MONDAY: Light rain lingers, cooling off. Wake up 44. High 47. Chance of precipitation 90%. Wind NE 10-20 mph.

TUESDAY: More rain, some ice up north? Wake up 36. High 42. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind N 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Lingering showers. Wake up 36. High 39. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

_______________________________________________

Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
December 21st

*Day With The Least Amount Of Sunlight: December 21st (8 hours, 46 minutes, 10 seconds)
*When Is The Latest Sunrise? December 30th-January 5th (7:51 AM)
*When Are Sunsets At/After 5 PM? January 18th (5:01 PM)
_______________________________________________

This Day in Weather History
December 21st

1993: Strong northwest winds gust to 35 miles an hour, causing near whiteout conditions over a wide area of southwest Minnesota from the late afternoon on the 21st into the early morning of the 22nd. Several car accidents occurred. A 30 year old man was killed when he lost control of his truck and slid into a ditch in the near blizzard like conditions. Counties affected include: Blue Earth, Brown, Chippewa, Faribault, Lac Qui Parle, Redwood, Renville, Watonwan, and Yellow Medicine.

1939: This is the latest date on record for Lake Minnewaska to freeze over at Glenwood.

_______________________________________________

The heaviest rain through Friday will fall across portions of southern California, where some mountainous and foothill areas could see upward of 10" of rain within just three days.

Several inches of snow will be possible through the end of the week in the Cascades and Rockies with maybe an additional foot in the southern Sierra.

_______________________________________________

Suddenly, US electricity demand is spiking. Can the grid keep up?

More from Canary Media: "For the past two decades, demand for electricity across the United States has hardly increased. But those dynamics appear to have dramatically reversed — and U.S. electric utilities, regulators and power grid planners aren't prepared to deal with this new paradigm of surging electricity demand. That's the key takeaway from a new report by consultancy Grid Strategies called The Era of Flat Power Demand Is Over. Already, massive amounts of clean energy projects are stuck waiting for grid expansions to happen so they can connect. Soon enough, data centers, factories, electric-vehicle charging depots and other major electricity users could start facing the same barriers, the report warns. In the past year, estimates from U.S. utilities and grid operators of how much electricity demand will grow over the next five years have nearly doubled, jumping from 2.6 percent to 4.7 percent, according to Grid Strategies' analysis. That's far higher than the more incremental 0.5 percent annual demand growth estimates of the past decade."

More from Grist: "The land of the Central Valley works hard. Here in the heart of California, in the most productive farming region in the United States, almost every square inch of land has been razed, planted, and shaped to support large-scale agriculture. The valley produces almonds, walnuts, pistachios, olives, cherries, beans, eggs, milk, beef, melons, pumpkins, sweet potatoes, tomatoes, and garlic. This economic mandate is clear to the naked eye: Trucks laden with fertilizer or diesel trundle down arrow-straight roads past square field after square field, each one dense with tomato shrubs or nut trees. Canals slice between orchards and acres of silage, pushing all-important irrigation water through a network of laterals from farm to farm. Cows jostle for space beneath metal awnings on crowded patches of dirt, emitting a stench that wafts over nearby towns."

The perils of an electric car holiday road trip

More from Axios: "Getting over the river and through the woods might be challenging this holiday season if the sleigh you're driving is an electric vehicle. Why it matters: EVs are growing in popularity, including among rental fleets. Featuring the latest gizmos and technologies, EVs are fun to drive and surprisingly spacious, making for a delightful way to travel. But without proper preparation, inexperienced EV drivers could face some unwanted travel surprises during a season that's already pretty stressful."

_______________________________________________

Follow me on:

- D.J. Kayser