"115 Million Americans Expected to Travel over Christmas, New Year's"
Second highest year-end holiday travel forecast since AAA began tracking in 2000. AAA projects 115.2 million travelers will head 50 miles or more from home over the 10-day year-end holiday travel period*. This year's total number of domestic travelers is a 2.2% increase over last year and the second highest year-end travel forecast since 2000, when AAA began tracking holiday travel. 2019 remains the busiest Christmas and New Year's travel period on record with 119 million travelers. "This year-end holiday forecast, with an additional 2.5 million travelers compared to last year, mirrors what AAA Travel has been observing throughout 2023," said Paula Twidale, Senior Vice President of AAA Travel. "More Americans are investing in travel, despite the cost, to make memories with loved ones and experience new places."
Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI)
"Winter seasons have significant societal impacts across all sectors ranging from direct human health and mortality to commerce, transportation, and education. The question "How severe was this winter?" does not have a simple answer. At the very least, the severity of a winter is related to the intensity and persistence of cold weather, the amount of snow, and the amount and persistence of snow on the ground. The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) was developed to objectively quantify and describe the relative severity of the winter season."
It's probably no surprise, but most locations around the Midwest and Great Lakes have had a "Mild" winter so far. This by the way doesn't look to be changing anytime soon with milder than average temperatures continuing and very little snow in the forecast. Again, we're still waiting for the other boot to drop, but being in an El Nino setup, a winter like last year is not really in the cards. The Midwest will likely see an overall warmer and less snowy winter.
"Mild" Winter So Far in for the Twin Cities
Here's a look at the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) for Minneapolis, MN so far this winter season. With a lack of cold temps and snow, it may be no surprise that we are currently sitting under a "Mild" winter rating so far.
Historical Chances of a "White Christmas"
"Will we have snow on the ground at Christmas? It's an age-old question that we hear frequently as the holidays approach. The chances of having a "white Christmas," defined as having one inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25th, range from virtually guaranteed in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area and a good part of the Arrowhead, to about 60% in southwestern Minnesota. The snow depth at most sites is measured once a day, usually in the morning. The best chances of having a white Christmas is almost guaranteed. Northern Minnesota is one of the few non-alpine climates in the US where a white Christmas is almost a sure bet. In 124 years of snow depth measurements in Twin Cities, a white Christmas happens about 71% of the time. From 1899 to 2022 there have been 36 "brown Christmases," with either a 0 or a "trace" reported for snow depth on December 25th in the Twin Cities; the last such instance was in 2021, when warm conditions melted all remaining snow on the 24th and in the overnight hours before the morning observation. The years 2018 and 2015 also no measurable snow on the ground in the Twin Cities on December 25th."
See more from the MN DNR HERE:
White Christmas History in the Twin Cities
Here's a look at the White Christmas History over the last 49 years (since 1953) in the Twin Cities. Since 2000, we've had 6 brown Christmases, where we failed to have at least 1" of snow on the ground on Christmas Day. 2021 was the most recent year, but in 2010, MSP had a whopping 19" of snow on the ground. Note that in 2018, we had a weak El Nino and we had a brown Christmas and in 2015, we had a very strong El Nino we had a brown Christmas.
Twin Cities December Summary So Far
Meanwhile, it has been a very warm and snowless December so far in the Twin Cities. Temperatures running nearly +9.0F above average through the first 18 days of the month, we're currently sitting at the 9th warmest start to any December on record. We're also -5.6" below normal snowfall for the month. We still have a little more than 2 weeks left of the month, but if we fail to see any additional snow this month, this would be the 8th least snowy December on record.
On Track For the 3rd Warmest Year on Record
It certainly has a warm year, but did you realize that MSP is on track for the 3rd warmest on year record? With only 13 days to go, the average temperature is only 0.4F behind the warmest year on record which is occurred in 1931.
Soggy Christmas Eve
Long range models are hinting at a soggy Christmas Eve and Christmas Day across the Upper Midwest. There is still a lot of time between now and then, so there could be some changes, including the potential for some snow on the backside of the system if we cool down enough. Again, lots could change, but we're getting indications of a more active signal around the holiday travel. Stay tuned...
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook across the state shows a couple to a few tenths of an inch of precipitation possible through early next week as our next storm system moves through the area. At this point, temperatures look warm enough to be most rain on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, but there could be a little light snow around parts of the region. Stay tuned for more updates.
Seasonal Snowfall So Far
The Twin Cities has only seen 4.5" of snow this season, which is nearly -10" below normal snowfall, which is the 38th least snowy start to any season on record. With only 6.3" of snow in Duluth, they are nearly -22" below normal snowfall and good enough for the 15th least snowy start to any season on record. Marquette, MI is more than -37" below normal snowfall and currently sitting at the 4th least snowy start to any season on record.
Seasonal Snowfall Departure From Average
Looking around the region, there is no climate site that has a surplus. The biggest deficits are around the Great Lakes, where we typically get lake effect snow, but with a lack of Arctic air, we haven't seen much in the way of heavy snow yet this season.
Twin Cities Average Snowfall
Depending on what 30-year average you look at, December is typically the 1st or 2nd snowiest month out of the year in the Twin Cities. If you look at the last 30 years 1993-2022, December averages 12.7" of snow and is the snowiest month of the year, followed by January with nearly 11" of snow.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Wednesday, December 20th will be dry and quiet with temperatures warming into the upper 30s by the afternoon, which will be nearly +10F to +15F above average for this time of the year. Skies will be dry and mostly sunny once again with Easterly winds around 15mph through the day.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Temperatures in the Twin Cities will start in the mid 20s in the morning and will warm into the upper 30s by the afternoon with dry and sunny skies. Easterly winds will be around 15mph, which will make it feel a bit cooler, but still pretty warm for this time of the year.
Weather Outlook For Wednesday
The weather outlook for Wednesday will warm into the 30s across much of the state with some low/mid 40s across the Southwestern part of the state. Temps around the state will be nearly +10F to +15F above average for mid December.
Near Record Warmth on Christmas Eve
High temperatures across the region on Christmas Eve Sunday could reach records levels for many (in yellow) and could be near records for many other locations. Crazy to think that in 151 years of record keeping in the Twin Cities, this year could be the warmest Christmas Eve on record
Near Record Warm on Christmas Day
It won't be quite as warm on Christmas Day, but it'll be close to records in many spots including the Twin Cities with the high temp climbing into the upper 40s once again. The record for Christmas Day is 51F, so we'll be close.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis will be quite a bit warmer than average over the next several days and into the weekend. Highs will warm into the 30s and 40s, which be nearly +15F to +25F above average with the warmest day being Saturday and Sunday when temps we get close to 50F once again and at or near record warmth.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis over the next 7 days will be pretty warm with a string of 40s developing this week will lingering into the weekend ahead. Note that the forecast for Christmas Eve is around 50F, which could be a record high for the date. The current record is 46F set in 1957. There could be a few sprinkles late Thursday into Friday, but a bigger storm system looks to develop on Christmas Eve Sunday into Christmas Day Monday.
The Extended Outlook Calls For Warmer Temps
According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, the extended forecast looks very warm through the end of the month with highs will warming into the 30s and 40s. The warmest days could come around the Christmas holiday with record highs possible along with RAIN!
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temperatures continuing across much of the nation and especially in the Midwest.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook shows more active weather across the East and West Coast with drier across the Central US.
Christmas Eve Rain - Slushy Next Week?
By Paul Douglas
I was hanging out down at the isobar and someone came up and asked me why we're seeing October in December? I put down my drink. "This is one big, foamy pour of El Nino, washed down with a climate change chaser." He blinked and wandered off.
This will be the 8th brown Christmas since 2000. Other years with under 1" on the ground December 25: 2002, 2006, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2018 and 2021. In stark contrast to 2010, when MSP woke up to 19" Christmas morning. All or nothing, right?
A little drizzle may fall Friday morning, but most of the rain comes Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. Even a rumble of thunder? 50F is possible Christmas Eve (old MSP record is 46). I see consistent 40s into next Monday, followed by a cooling trend.
And here is where it gets interesting. Our Christmas storm stalls near Chicago, pulling colder air into Minnesota, with a few inches of slushy snow next Tuesday into Thursday. No promises or details, but at least we have a shot. But no bitter air in sight. In the meantime who's thirsty?
Extended Forecast
WEDNESDAY: Sunny and pleasant. Winds: E 8-13. High 40.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy and quiet. Winds: ESE 10. Low: 32.
THURSDAY: Clouds increase, still dry. Winds: SE 10-15. High 41.
FRIDAY: Clouds and fog, a little rain. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 33. High 42.
SATURDAY: Clouds linger, unseasonably mild. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 35. High 47.
CHRISTMAS EVE (SUNDAY): Record warmth. Rain - possible thunder. Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 42. High 50.
CHRISTMAS DAY (MONDAY): Showers taper. Slushy snow southeast? Winds: NE 10-25. Wake-up: 40. High: 42.
TUESDAY: Potential for light snow. Winds: NE 10-20. Wake-up: 28. High 36.
This Day in Weather History
December 20th
1989: Minnesotans are hard pressed to find snow cover across most of the state. Only good places to cross country ski are at Grand Marais and along the Gunflint Trail.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
December 20th
Average High: 27F (Record: 51F set in 1967)
Average Low: 14F (Record: -24F set in 1916)
Record Rainfall: 0.74" set in 1902
Record Snowfall: 4.6" set in 2010
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
December 20th
Sunrise: 7:46am
Sunset: 4:34pm
Hours of Daylight: ~8 hours & 47 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: 9 Seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 6 Hour & 50 Minutes
Moon Phase for December 20th at Midnight
1.5 Days Since First Quarter Moon
National High Temps on Wednesday
The weather outlook on Wednesday shows warmer than average temperatures across much of the Central and Western half of the nation. Meanwhile, folks in the Southeastern US will be cooler than average.
National Weather Outlook For Wednesday
The National Weather Outlook on Wednesday shows areas of rain and thunder across California. This is part of the same storm that will bring us rain around the upcoming holiday on Sunday and Monday. Too early to tell if there will be any substantial snow close to home.
National Weather Outlook
The National Weather outlook through Thursday shows areas of heavy rain and some thunder moving into the Southwestern US. As this area of low pressure sags into the Southwestern US, the Gulf of Mexico will be open for business and will start sending moisture northwest into the Central US, some of which will eventually make it into the Midwest later this week and especially into the weekend and early next week.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation across the Central and Southern US. There will also be some heavy precipitation across the Western and Southwestern US.
Extended Snowfall Outlook
According to the ECMWF weather model, heavy snows are in the forecast across parts of the Western US through early next week. Some of the heaviest and most widespread could be in the high elevations in Colorado and Wyoming. However, there will be some decent tallies in the Plains.
Climate Stories
"Why people still fall for fake news about climate change"
"It was the hottest year on Earth in 125,000 years, and #climatescam is taking off. In 1995, a leading group of scientists convened by the United Nations declared that they had detected a "human influence" on global temperatures with "effectively irreversible" consequences. In the coming decades, 99.9 percent of scientists would come to agree that burning fossil fuels had disrupted the Earth's climate. Yet almost 30 years after that warning, during the hottest year on Earth in 125,000 years, people are still arguing that the science is unreliable, or that the threat is real but we shouldn't do anything about climate change. Conspiracies are thriving online, according to a report by the coalition Climate Action Against Disinformation released last month, in time for the U.N. climate conference in Dubai. Over the past year, posts with the hashtag #climatescam have gotten more likes and retweets on the platform known as X than ones with #climatecrisis or #climateemergency."
"Five Unprecedented Weather Events Of 2023"
"If there's one thing we can count on with the weather, it's to expect the unexpected. This year has brought several unprecedented weather events with 25 confirmed weather-caused disasters with losses exceeding $1 billion, according to the National Oceanic and Weather Administration. From the recent deadly tornadoes in the south to smoke-choked skies and atmospheric rivers, scorching heatwaves and super fog, weather events in 2023 offer many examples of growing weather volatility. Extreme Heat It was an intensely hot summer across the globe in 2023 with the global mean temperature at the highest level on record, more than 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit above average. Almost every corner of the U.S. experienced extreme heat this past year —and it was recently announced that 2023 will go in the books as the warmest year on record. The frequency of hot days is increasing, as is the frequency of heat waves in the U.S., which is up to six every year from two a year just 50 years ago."
"The quest to understand tornadoes"
"One muggy day in July 1986, a news helicopter was recording footage of a festival in Minneapolis when the pilot and photographer glimpsed a tornado over nearby Brooklyn Park. They moved toward it, filming the powerful twister for 25 minutes, mesmerizing viewers watching it live on TV. Watching as the helicopter hovered within maybe a half-mile of the twister was Robin Tanamachi, who was a kid growing up in Minneapolis at the time. "We were seeing all this really beautiful interior vortex structure," she says. "I was just absolutely hooked on that, and I know I was not the only one." Today, Tanamachi is a research meteorologist at Purdue University in West Lafayette, Indiana, and one of many researchers delving into twisters' mysteries, searching for details about their formation that may bolster future forecasts."
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