Warning Signs:

•The steepest decline in housing values in 20 years

•Personal income growth down

•Unemployment up

•Gasoline prices remain near $3 a gallon

Big shifts in prior forecasts:

•November 1997: Up $1.3 billion

•November 1999: Up $1.6 billion

•November 2001: Down $2.2 billion

•November 2006: Up $1 billion

How the 2004-2005 budget shortfall was balanced:

• Spending cuts: $2 billion

• Reserves and tobacco funds: $1.2 billion

• New and one-time revenues: $931 million

• Accounting shifts: $503 million

Sources: State economist; Minnesota Dept. of Finance