It's human nature to make comparisons and gauge our own status (and that of others) as a result. If you get a $50 bonus for some task, for instance, you feel pretty good about it without any other context.
You feel even better in many cases if you find out someone else only got $25, but an anger swells in some cases if you find out someone else received $100 – even though you have the same amount in every scenario.
We can do the same thought exercise with a real example: the Twins pitching staff (though I'll take $50 if anyone is offering).
If you simply compare the Twins pitching staff to the rest of MLB over the course of the entire season, the news is flattering. Minnesota had the eighth-best ERA in baseball entering play Monday (4.18), which firmly classifies the Twins as "above-average" in that category.
But if you isolate on monthly comparisons, your smile turns to a frown and your postseason panic level goes up a few notches.
Their team ERA in August is a much less flattering 4.91, which over the course of a full season would rank in the bottom 10 instead of the top 10 in the majors. The starting pitching is even more troubling: a 5.34 ERA this month, compared to a 4.07 mark for the year.
The Twins as a team this season have been remarkably good at maintaining a steady level of confidence regardless of whether they are temporarily performing above or below expectations.
Perhaps players more than fans innately understand how averages work – that they are not flat lines of performance but fluctuating lines full of peaks and valleys. Just as you should never assume you can walk across a river that is on average 4 feet deep — as it might be up to your ankles in spots and over your head in others – don't confuse a 4.18 team ERA as a constant output.
