Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull volcano may have quieted for now, but that doesn't mean it's done impacting travel. Along with an ash plume, the eruption may bring about cheaper summer airfares to Europe.
"We are guessing that a certain percentage of the population who were planning a trip to Europe are going to stay home instead, not wanting to play ash cloud roulette with Mother Nature," said George Hobica, the head of Twin Cities-based airfarewatchdog.com.
A decline in the number of travelers to Europe could force airlines to cut fares, which have been rising as business and leisure travel rebounds.
According to Bing Travel's recently released Summer Travel Forecast, summer airfares to Europe were expected to rise 29 percent over last summer. Fares to Europe this summer are running $1,270 on average, compared to $902 last summer.
That upward trend may reverse depending on how many travelers decide to forgo a visit to Europe, which relies heavily on the airspace over Iceland for many popular routes. In Iceland itself, the airport wasn't hit as hard as those in parts of Europe because the ash clouds blew quickly away from it towards northern Europe and Scandinavia.
Hobica has been polling travelers about their summer plans and preliminary results show that about 15 percent of the travelers say that they expect to change their travel plans to Europe.
"Even a 15 percent change of heart will have a downward effect or at least keep fares from rising further," Hobica said, adding that the impact of volcano worries are akin to those of SARS and the H1N1 scare.
Tom Parsons, CEO of Bestfares.com, agrees. In a weekly analysis of airfare trends he said that in the wake of the SARS and H1N1 scares, it took airlines three to four weeks to adjust fares based on consumer response.
