A few inch ahead in race for governor

Nearly a year out from Election Day, a few contenders are nosing ahead from the herd of candidates jostling to replace Gov. Tim Pawlenty.

Early indicators, from polling to the crystal balls of party leaders, suggest that money, power players and activists are starting to line up as candidates hurtle toward unusually early endorsing conventions next spring.

A recent poll showed that former U.S. Sen. Mark Dayton and Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak already have crossed one high hurdle: statewide name recognition. Each garnered 30 percent among likely Democratic voters.

For Republicans, the possible entry of former U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman hovers over the GOP field, with his name recognition and fundraising ability dwarfing those of formal candidates.

But the route to party endorsement also lies in steady, concentrated wooing of delegates. That's where House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, along with Sen. Tom Bakk and Rep. Paul Thissen, are gaining ground among potential DFL delegates. Rep. Marty Seifert, Rep. Tom Emmer and former state auditor Pat Anderson are doing the same among Republican delegates.

"On both sides, they've spent all summer going to all these picnics and bean feeds and endless candidate forums, and the race hasn't narrowed to one or two," said Charlie Weaver, executive director of the Minnesota Business Partnership and a Republican who opted out of the race last month.

Some are already preparing for a possible primary run. That's where former DFL House Minority Leader Matt Entenza's deep knowledge of the state and personal fortune may provide an edge if he fails to win endorsement.

That still leaves a gaggle of contenders.

With an open seat at stake, none of the 11 DFLers or seven Republicans appears willing to depart early.

"Can't you guys be like other states and [have] people drop out?" joked Jennifer Duffy, senior editor with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report in Washington, where she is watching governors' races. Cook considers the race in Minnesota a toss-up.

Republicans have held the governor's office for 16 of the last 20 years, with two terms apiece for Pawlenty and Arne Carlson. Third-party Gov. Jesse Ventura interrupted GOP rule for one term. Not since Rudy Perpich departed in 1990 have DFLers occupied the top seat.

"With this crowded of a field, anything could happen in April [at the DFL party convention]. So why would anyone drop out?" said DFL candidate Susan Gaertner, the Ramsey County attorney.

Even at this early stage, money powers a statewide run. None of the leading candidates would disclose their precise numbers, and campaign finance reports won't be public until Feb. 1. But a subterranean scramble for dollars is underway.

At least four candidates -- Entenza, Kelliher, Bakk and Thissen -- are edging closer or have exceeded $95,800 from certain groups this year. That threshold changes the amount they can raise per donor and can be an early indicator of their money-raising prowess.

Entenza has held fundraisers from California to Washington, while Dayton just labeled December "Dollar for Dayton" month, because "it's something everyone can do, even during these hard economic times." Rep. Tom Rukavina, another DFLer, has a "give $10 and do it again" club to encourage ongoing contributions. Seifert wants followers to pony up $20.10 for his 2010 run. While Coleman is not raising money for this race, he is renowned for his fundraising ability, clearing nearly $20 million in his 2008 Senate race and raising millions more for the recount. Rybak, who filed papers to join the race last month, raked in almost $360,000 by early fall for his mayoral re-election this year.

To get an idea of what it takes for a candidate to go the distance, Pawlenty raised $808,000 in 2005, the year before his re-election. His DFL opponent, Mike Hatch, scooped up $502,000. That race also featured a self-financer: DFL developer Kelly Doran raised $1.9 million in 2005, but ended up dropping out of the race.

Pecking order

Kelliher has a core group of powerful women business leaders and former officeholders behind her, and has picked up union and delegate endorsements. Entenza couples cash and a hard-driving ambition. Both he and Dayton have the deep pockets needed to fund their primaries.

Other candidates have a chance, but the climb is getting steeper. Some, like former state senator Steve Kelley and Sen. John Marty, have run before and lost and may have trouble edging their way to the front again. Others, like frequent candidate Ole Savior are at the back of the pack.

On the Republican side, the field is even more unsettled. A Rasmussen poll last month showed that Coleman, who won't make a decision until next year, at 50 percent support among GOP primary voters, while 26 percent said they were undecided.

Seifert took a decisive lead in an October GOP straw poll of 1,236 delegates, although those may not be the same people who go to next year's convention. Close behind were Emmer and Anderson, while Sen. David Hann is trying to make headway.

GOP party activist Philip Herwig, former state Rep. Bill Haas and frequent candidate Leslie Davis are straggling at the rear, according to local party leaders.

"If any of those top three win, it'd be great," said Boguszewski, a health care consultant. Since the three are closely aligned on issues, he said, "now it's just a question of style and all of that."

The big sort

In early February, long before average Minnesotans have started to pay much attention, candidates will face clear tests.

By Feb. 1, they'll have to reveal their cash on hand. The following day, parties will pick delegates for the April conventions and conduct straw polls.

Once endorsees are selected, most others will drop out.

Between now and then, the search is on for a winning formula. "We see each other multiple times a week," said Bakk, referring to the other DFL candidates. "[And we joke], 'Gosh, here we all are. What is it going to take for one of us to be [the] front-runner?' I don't believe anybody has figured that out yet."