"Mississippi River record-low water levels ease some, but long-term forecast is dry"
Rains from Hurricane Rosyln will help Mississippi River water levels this week, but the coming La Niña winter is likely to bring long-term below-average precipitation over the river's watershed. The shrunken Mississippi River, flowing at its lowest rate on record along much of a 270-mile stretch, will receive a minor short-term bump in water levels this week from Hurricane Roslyn's rains. However, with another La Niña winter in the cards, the long-term outlook for the river is unfortunately very dry. As reported by Bloomberg on October 21, barge shipments of corn during the first week of October were down 50% from the same time in 2021, and more than 2,000 barges were backed up. The low water levels have also allowed salt water to move upriver to threaten drinking water supplies in New Orleans, forcing the Army Corps to build an underwater dam to stop the upstream advance of the ocean water.
See more from Yale Climate Connections HERE:
Mississippi River at St. Paul
Water levels along the entire Mississippi River are running very well, including close to home. The image below shows the latest river level along the Mississippi at St. Paul from Tuesday, which was 3.4ft and now one of the top 10 lowest levels ever recorded along the Mississippi.
Low Water Records For Mississippi River at St. Paul
Here are the 10 lowest water records for the Mississippi River at St. Paul. Note that the current level was around 3.4ft, which puts it now in the top 10 lowest levels ever recorded there. Note that 2020 and 2021 cracked the top 5 lowest on record.
Precipitation Departure From Average This October
It's been a dry October with many locations nearly 1" to 2" below average for the month of October. The Twin Cities is closer to 2" below average, which is good enough for the 8th driest October on record so far.
Precipitation Departure From Average This Fall
If you look at the precipitation deficit for the season (since September 1st) the deficit is even greater. Many locations are well below average with the Twin Cities more than 4.50" below average, which is the 2nd driest September 1st through October 24rd on record.
Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st
The Twin Cities is more than 9.60" below average for the year, which is good enough for the 18th driest start to any year on record. Meanwhile, International Fall, MN is more than 9.60" above average, which is good enough for the 2nd wettest start to any year on record.
Drought Update
It has been a dry year for many across central and southern MN. Extreme drought continues across parts of the Twin Cities to the Minnesota River Valley where rainfall deficits have been the greatest. It would be nice to get a good soaking prior to heading into winter, but it doesn't appear that anything substantial is on the way anytime soon.
Fall Color Update
Here's the fall color update for Minnesota & Wisconsin. Fall colors are generally past peak in many spots across the state. There are still a few pockets of peak color here and there, but it's really fading fast and trees are starting to get more bare, especially after the strong winds over the last few days.
See more from the MN DNR HERE & Travel Wisconsin HERE:
Another Mostly Dry Week Ahead
The weather Halloween next Monday shows mostly dry weather continuing across the Upper Midwest. There could be a few light showers/sprinkles on Thursday across the Western/Southwestern part of the state, but most will stay dry over the next several days once again.
Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation potential over the next several days doesn't show much in the way of heavy precipitation. There could be a little across the southwestern part of the state, but it looks pretty light.
Weather Outlook on Wednesday
Temperature on Wednesday will at or slightly below average for late October with readings warming into the 40s and 50s. We'll also have dry and sunny skies for a majority of the day.
Weather Outlook Wednesday
The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Wednesday shows chilly temps in place with highs only warming into the lower 50s. Temps will start in the low/mid 30s, which will mean patchy frost for some.
Meteograms for Minneapolis
The hourly forecast for Minneapolis on Wednesday shows temps starting in the mid 30s in the morning and warming into low 50s by the afternoon. We'll have dry and sunny skies with WNW winds around 10mph to 15mph.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next 5 days shows temps only warming into the 50s through the rest of the week. However, temps will gradually warm to near 60F on Friday and into the weekend, which will be nearly 5F to 10F above average for late October.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows gradually warming temps through the weekend with very little precipitation potential. At this point, Halloween Monday looks dry and fairly comfortable.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps in place across the eastern half of the nation, while cooler than average temps will be found in the Western US.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather setting up across northern tier of the nation. We'll see what happens, but it certain has been dry across the Upper Midwest and we could use the precipitation.
A Colder Snowier Winter Isn't A Sure Thing
By Paul Douglas
Are you a cheap date or my forever soulmate? Odds are a long list of factors went into convincing you that you're with the right person. Love at first sight sounds great, but most couples warm to each other over time. What on EARTH does this have to do with weather, Paul?
There is no one single factor that determines how cold and snowy our winter will be. It's a combination of factors all working together, many of them unknowable months in advance.
There is a strong correlation between El Nino warm phases of the Pacific and milder winters in Minnesota. La Nina cool phases aren't as cut and dry. There is a slight cold bias, but nearly a dozen other natural cycles and oscillations can tip us over in one direction or the other. Odds are we'll all be surprised.
Expect quiet weather into early next week with a gradual warming trend. Highs reach or top 60F Friday into Tuesday of next week. No Halloween Superstorms this year.
Drought is expanding and intensifying. What I'd give for a muddy, dirty rain right now.
Extended Forecast
WEDNESDAY: Cool sunshine. Winds: NW 7-12. High: 52.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and quiet. Winds: SSE 5. Low: 38.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy, passing sprinkle. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 38. High: 57.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny and nicer. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 45. High: 60.
SATURDAY: Spectacularly sunny. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 43. High: 63.
SUNDAY: Plenty of sunshine. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 44. High: 62.
MONDAY: Intervals of sunshine, not too scary. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 43. High: 64.
TUESDAY: Some sun, last balmy day?. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 47. High: 65.
This Day in Weather History
October 26th
2010: The lowest pressure on record for Minnesota occurs in the town of Bigfork, with a reading of 28.21 inches of mercury (955.30 mb). Very strong winds were widespread throughout the state, with peak gusts of 65 mph recorded at both Georgeville (Stearns County) and Mehurin Township (Lac Qui Parle County).
1996: A severe weather outbreak combined with a blizzard occurred across the upper Midwest. Intense low pressure tracking into Minnesota produced blizzard conditions over portions of South Dakota, while further east in Minnesota, unseasonably mild temperatures developed. Temperatures climbed to near 70, with dew points in the 50s. 1 to 1 3/4 inch hail and strong winds were reported in Lac Qui Parle, Yellow Medicine, Chippewa, and Swift Counties. These storms produced 12 tornadoes; the strongest of which received F2 ratings. Southwest of Alexandria in Douglas County, an F2 tornado with a 9 mile track destroyed several homes. One woman sustained broken bones and internal injuries when a portion of her house, with her inside, was launched 200 feet onto the interstate. This tornado also pushed over a 500 pound fuel tank. Tornadoes also touched down in Swift, Kandiyohi, Pope, Stearns, and Isanti Counties.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
October 26th
Average High: 53F (Record: 83F set in 1955)
Average Low: 37F (Record: 16F set in 1962)
Record Rainfall: 1.54" set in 1941
Record Snowfall: 1.3" set in 1959
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
October 26th
Sunrise: 7:43am
Sunset: 6:10pm
Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 27 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 54 seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 5 hour & 12 minutes
Moon Phase for October 26th at Midnight
1.8 Days Since New Moon
National High Temps Wednesday
The weather outlook on Wednesday shows lingering warmth across the East Coast with highs in the 70s and 80s for some. Meanwhile, the western two-thirds of the nation will be cooler than average with lingering precipitation chance in the Pacific Northwest.
National Weather Outlook Wednesday
Areas of rain will linger across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast as an area of low pressure moves through the region. Meanwhile, light rain/snow will continue through the Rockies with dry weather in the Upper Midwest.
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through Thursday shows an area of low pressure moving through the Great Lakes and the Northeast with drier weather moving in on Thursday. Meanwhile, another area of low pressure will slide southeast along the spine of the Rockies with rain and snow and will eventually bring showers/storms to the Central/Southern Plains by Thursday.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavier precipitation will be possible across the Southern US and also through parts of the Eastern US. The heaviest will be found in the Pacific Northwest with several inches of precipitation across the High Elevations of the Cascades.
Snowfall Potential
Unsettled weather will continue in the Western US with areas of heavy snow possible in the higher elevations. Traveling could be difficult for some in these areas when some of the heaviest snows arrive.
Climate Stories
"How weathercasters helped change public opinion on climate change"
"Twenty-five years ago this month, the Clinton administration hosted 100 broadcast meteorologists at the White House for a series of briefings on global climate change. Addressing a roomful of weathercasters, President Clinton panned, "Welcome to the White House on a cool, overcast day—about 60 degrees. How am I doing? I'm auditioning." Those in the East Room crowd, including me, laughed pretty hardily at the president's opening lines. But this wasn't a social function. It was a climate change convocation. Clinton was about to throw a Hail Mary, with weathercasters the intended receivers."
See more from The Bulletin HERE:
"U.S. Home Solar Market Is Growing"
"As conventional energy becomes more unstable, the idea of making your own with the help of the sun becomes more attractive, and this is reflected in the fact that the residential home solar market broke growth records for the fifth time in a row during the second quarter of 2022, according to data from the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA). "While residential solar power currently generates just a fraction of the country's overall electricity, it has continued to grow rapidly in recent years, despite COVID-19-related supply chain issues, import restrictions and other obstacles," Rebecca Leppert and Brian Kennedy wrote in an October analysis for the Pew Research Center. associated with the added CO2 emissions, calculating about $7 billion in damage from added warming."
"Weather tracker: 'triple-dip' La Niña heightens drought in US"
"The US drought monitor declared 60% of the country to be in a designated drought zone last Thursday, with 34% in a severe or deepening drought. Although such conditions are not unusual in the US, with approximately 14% of the country having experienced severe to extreme drought every year since 1895, the extent of the current situation certainly is. Western states and parts of the Great Plains are experiencing the most severe droughts in the country. Some central states including Minnesota and Iowa have recorded less than 25mm of rain in the past month, compared with an average of 70-100mm in September. Such little rainfall after a warmer than average July to September has caused parts of the Mississippi River to resemble a creek. At the same time, wildfires have been raging in Washington, Oregon and New Mexico, spanning a total of more than 200,000 hectares."
See more From The Guardian HERE:
