Baseball Prospectus last week released its PECOTA projections for MLB teams and players, and the news was about as neutral for the Twins as possible. They are projected to finish 81-81, not really within striking distance of meaningful contention.
Which Twins players are likely to exceed projections, which are likely to disappoint relative to projections, and on which side of .500 will the team finish?
First take: Michael Rand
Part of me wants to say the projected 81-81 is both good enough for second place in the AL Central and also the worst record in baseball. Nobody wants to be stuck in the middle, especially a Twins team for which that would represent only a three-game improvement over last season.
That said, PECOTA is a projection system heavily influenced by past performance and is naturally filled with outliers. To beat the overall projection, the Twins will need some players to overperform expectations.
A big one who jumps out at me is starting pitcher Michael Pineda. He hasn't pitched in a major league game since July 5, 2017, after Tommy John surgery. Baseball Prospectus projects him for a WARP (wins above replacement player) of 0.0 and an ERA of almost 5. If he has a true bounce-back season, add two or three wins to the bottom line.
Phil Miller: Twins beat writer
See, you're a glass-half-empty guy, right away noticing someone who's supposed to underachieve. Me, I'm full of optimism. I note that PECOTA says that another newcomer is projected to be the Twins' best player, and by a lot: Nelson Cruz, who, even if he delivers only the 28 homers and 86 RBI that BP expects (his lowest totals in six years), will provide 3.4 WAR, an Eddie Rosario level of production that the projections say would make him the team's MVP in a rout.