Matt Vensel is in his first year at the Star Tribune after covering the Ravens for the Baltimore Sun for six years. He is a Pittsburgh native and a Penn State grad. Follow him at @mattvensel.


Mark Craig has covered the NFL for 23 years, and the Vikings since 2003 for the Star Tribune. He is one of 44 Pro Football Hall of Fame selectors. Follow him at @markcraignfl.


Master Tesfatsion is the Star Tribune’s digital Vikings writer. He is a 2013 graduate of Arizona State and worked for mlb.com before arriving in Minneapolis. Follow him at @masterstrib.


Week 9 Picks and Power Rankings: Vikings No. 17

Posted by: Mark Craig under On the road, Vikings, Bears, Lions, NFC, Packers, Super Bowl, Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, Phil Loadholt Updated: November 2, 2012 - 10:15 AM
What else would you rather do on a Friday morning than watch a poor man swing away at his weekly NFL Picks and Power Rankings? We’ll even throw in some extra purple with Three Reasons for Optimism and Three Reasons to Go `Uh-Oh.’
 
Power rankings
TOP THREE
1, Falcons (7-0)
Last week: No. 1.
Comment: They’re not overwhelming in any one category and have no shot of going 16-0, even though seven of their final nine games are against teams that currently have a losing record. But the Falcons are steady. They rank third in third-down conversions and third in fewest giveaways (seven).
 
2. Giants (6-2)
Last week: No. 2.
Comment: Doesn’t it feel like a Manning vs. Manning Super Bowl is destined? Pick a Manning and I’ll take the other one and be happy. But let’s not forget the players around Archie’s boys. The Giants rank first in sacks allowed per pass play and are tied with the Bears for most interceptions on defense (16).
 
3. Bears (6-1)
Last week: No. 3.
Comment: No. 1 against the run AND six interception returns for touchdowns? What’s an opposing offense to do? Well, the Vikings will find out when they have to play the Bears twice in 14 days later this month and early next month.
 
BOTTOM THREE
30. Panthers (1-6)
Last week: No. 28.
Comment: Five of Carolina’s six losses have been by fewer than seven points. But the Panthers keep losing. And losing. And Cam Newton and that offense keeps regressing.
 
31. Jaguars (1-6)
Last week: No. 31.
Comment: You know you stink when people are patting you on the back after losing by only nine points. Jacksonville’s somewhat competitive 24-15 loss at Green Bay doesn’t lift it from its No. 31 spot. The Jags rank last in seven of the league’s main offensive categories, including scoring.
 
32. Chiefs (1-6)
Last week: No. 32.
Comment: I’m guessing that Romeo Crennel won’t be NFL Coach of the Year? Seven games, six losses and not a single second with a lead in regulation.
 
 
NFC NORTH
3. Bears (6-1)
Last week: No. 3.
Comment: Chicago should be able to win at Tennessee on Sunday, but then things get interesting with consecutive games against Houston at home and the 49ers in San Francisco.
 
4. Packers (5-3)
Last week: No. 4.
Comment: Even with the Packers having to play at Soldier Field next month, the Bears can’t feel too comfortable with that 1 ½-game lead on Green Bay. Not the way Aaron Rodgers plays regardless of who’s on the receiving end of his passes.
 
17. Vikings (5-3).
Last week: No. 17.
Comment: Can the Vikings weather this 1-2 stretch and stay competitive during a brutal second half of the season? Or will they be this year’s version of last year’s Buffalo Bills. Like the Bills, the Vikings shocked the league by starting 4-1. Like the 2011 Bills, the Vikings lost their eighth game to fall to 5-3. That’s where the Vikings have to hope the comparison ends. The Bills lost their next six games en route to a 6-10 finish.
 
19. Lions (3-4)
Last week: No. 27.
Comment:  The Lions are 1-3 on the road, but should be able to win at Jacksonville. That would put them back at .500 heading to Minnesota.
 
 
THE REST
 
5.    Texans (6-1); 6. 49ers (6-2); 7. Ravens (5-2); 8. Patriots (5-3); 9. Broncos (4-3); 10. Steelers (4-3); 11. Dolphins (4-3); 12. Seahawks (4-4); 13. Colts (4-3); 14. Buccaneers (3-4); 15. Redskins (3-5); 16. Cowboys (3-4); 18. Raiders (3-4); 20. Chargers (3-4); 21. Titans (3-5); 22. Bills (3-4); 23. Eagles (3-4); 24. Bengals (3-4); 25. Cardinals (4-4); 26. Rams (3-5); 27.     Saints (2-5); 28. Browns (2-6); 29. Jets (3-5).
 
VIKINGS
THREE REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
1, Peterson seems unstoppable: Defenses line up essentially in a 5-2 front with an outside linebacker as a stand-up end. They sneak safeties into the box. Their linebacker blitz on running downs and distances because they want to clog lanes to stop Adrian Peterson. And yet, with very little help from the passing game, Peterson leads the NFL in rushing at the midway point of a season in which he’s coming off a knee reconstruction. That 300-yard game he keeps talking about? It could happen if opponents ever had to respect the Vikings’ passing game.
 
2, The `no-respect’ factor: This is a classic NFL bounce-back scenario. Team A plays a horrendous game and loses at home to a 2-4 team on a short week. Team A is written off by essentially everybody. With extra time to rest and prepare, Team A explodes in a prideful performance. Then Team A stands in the locker room and belittles everybody who picked against them, forgetting that those same people picked them the week before when they played like complete mutts. The Vikings have the added incentive of being told daily that playing in Seattle is like spotting the Seahawks 21 points and letting them play with 15 starters on each side of the ball. I’m taking Seattle, but I can feel the, “Nobody gave us a chance” interviews coming.  
 
3, Seattle’s third-down woes: Yes, Tampa Bay was 30th in third-down conversions when they came into the Metrodome and converted five straight during a back-breaking 16-play, 87-yard drive in the fourth quarter. Seattle ranks 25th (32.7 percent). Rookie QB Russell Wilson is calm beyond his years and experience, but he’s also completing only 50.8 percent of his third-down passes. He also ranks 21st in third-down passer rating (76.2)
 
 
THREE REASONS TO GO `UH-OH’
1, Gap control on defense: Maybe the Vikings are right and they’ll suddenly correct their many mistakes in run defense. Everybody will man their gap and all the cracks will be sealed. But three straight games of poor run defense suggests a trend. Perhaps guys are out of their gaps because the fellas on the other side are knocking them out of their gaps once in a while. It’s hard to accept the run-stopping rhetoric coming from Winter Park when Marshawn Lynch is coming up on Sunday.
 
2, Ponder is (still) stacking the stinkers: He hasn’t played another game since last week’s Picks and Power Rankings. But we’ve had seven more days to dissect the Bucs fiasco and Ponder was, well, terrible. The opinion here is Ponder played five “winning” caliber games to start the season. But he’s now played three straight that weren’t. The Bucs loss was hardly his fault alone. The protection was terrible and the route running did him no favors either. But Ponder missed some easy throws, forced a deep pass to Jerome Simpson when Percy Harvin was open right in front of him and failed to pull the trigger and throw to a wide-open Kyle Rudolph over the middle against an all-out blitz. Ponder needs to get better, but it’s hard to picture that happening at Seattle.
 
3, Offensive line regressing:
Overall, the offensive line has been an improvement over last season. But the line was confused and overmatched against Tampa Bay. And it wasn’t just the blitz that caused Ponder problems. The Vikings had problems with four-man rushes and even gave up a sack on a three-man rush late in the game. Rookie left tackle Matt Kalil had trouble when the Bucs overloaded to his side. Right tackle Phil Loadholt got beat too often. And one particular play against a four-man rush left Ponder running for safety because both Loadholt and right guard Brandon Fusco whiffed on their men.
 
 
THE PICKS
Seahawks 24, Vikings 13: Yeah, @stribDW and I might be standing in CenturyLink Field on Sunday evening, dumbfounded once again by a Vikings’ outcome. Like the Bucs game last week, this one seems pretty clear-cut. Unfortunately for those of us attempting to pick NFL games, the clear-cut choice that time was the Vikings. A no-doubter, at least heading into the first of those three straight three-and-outs. And we all know how that one turned out from there. The Vikings are 1-2 on the road and I just don’t see them being able to handle the noise and chaos that comes with CenturyLink Field, where the Seahawks are 3-0.
 
Record picking Vikings games: 3-3.
 
Overall Record Last Week: 7-6. Vs. Spread: 7-6.
 
Record Season: 54-38. Vs. Spread: 40-47-3.
 
DEN minus-3 ½ at CIN: Broncos by 3.
ARI plus-11 at GB: Packers by 7.
MIA minus-2 at IND: Colts by 3.
BAL minus-3 ½ at CLE: Browns by 3.
BUF plus-10 at HOU: Texans by 14.
DET minus-4 at JAC: Lions by 6.
CHI minus-3 ½ at TEN: Bears by 7.
TB plus-1 ½ at OAK: Buccaneers by 3.
PIT plus-3 ½ at NYG: Giants by 7.
DAL plus-4 at ATL: Falcons by 7.
PHI plus-3 at NO: Saints by 7.
 
UPSET SPECIAL
CAR plus-3 ½ at WAS.
 
Panthers 27, Redskins 23:  The Panthers’ last four losses have come by a combined 12 points to the undefeated Falcons in Atlanta, Seattle, Dallas and the 6-1 Bears in Chicago. The Redskins have lost two straight and are still only 1-2 at home. Time for Cam to steal a few highlights from RG3.
 
 
Last week: NO plus-6 at DEN. Prediction: Saints 33, Broncos 30. Actual: Broncos 34, Saints 14.
Record: 3-4.

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Tennessee 12/18/14 7:25 PM
Jacksonville
Philadelphia 12/20/14 3:30 PM
Washington
San Diego 12/20/14 7:25 PM
San Francisco
Minnesota 12/21/14 12:00 PM
Miami
Baltimore 12/21/14 12:00 PM
Houston
Detroit 12/21/14 12:00 PM
Chicago
Cleveland 12/21/14 12:00 PM
Carolina
Atlanta 12/21/14 12:00 PM
New Orleans
Green Bay 12/21/14 12:00 PM
Tampa Bay
Kansas City 12/21/14 12:00 PM
Pittsburgh
New England 12/21/14 12:00 PM
NY Jets
NY Giants 12/21/14 3:05 PM
St. Louis
Buffalo 12/21/14 3:25 PM
Oakland
Indianapolis 12/21/14 3:25 PM
Dallas
Seattle 12/21/14 7:30 PM
Arizona
Denver 12/22/14 7:30 PM
Cincinnati
Atlanta 6:00 PM
Cleveland
Phoenix 6:00 PM
Charlotte
Dallas 6:30 PM
Detroit
Utah 6:30 PM
Miami
Orlando 6:30 PM
Boston
Brooklyn 7:00 PM
Toronto
Memphis 7:30 PM
San Antonio
Milwaukee 9:00 PM
Portland
Houston 9:30 PM
Denver
Indiana 9:30 PM
LA Clippers
Ottawa 6:00 PM
New Jersey
Boston 7:00 PM
Minnesota
Dallas 9:00 PM
Vancouver
Langston 65 FINAL
North Texas 78
Delaware State 3:00 PM
St Francis-NY
James Madison 6:00 PM
Ball State
SIU Edwardsville 6:00 PM
Campbell
St Francis-PA 6:00 PM
Duquesne
North Florida 6:00 PM
Florida State
Catawba 6:00 PM
George Mason
Ferrum 6:00 PM
High Point
Hampton 6:00 PM
Illinois
Gardner-Webb 6:00 PM
Jacksonville
Longwood 6:00 PM
Miami-Ohio
Arkansas State 6:00 PM
Miss State
Tennessee 6:00 PM
NC State
NC A&T 6:00 PM
Ohio State
Manhattan 6:00 PM
Pittsburgh
Robert Morris 6:00 PM
Toledo
Char Southern 6:00 PM
Wofford
Kennesaw St 6:00 PM
Youngstown St
Barber-Scotia 6:00 PM
NC Central
Detroit 6:30 PM
UCF
Liberty 6:30 PM
UNC-Wilmington
TX A&M-CC 7:00 PM
Denver
Ark-Pine Bluff 7:00 PM
Houston
UT Martin 7:00 PM
Illinois State
Milligan 7:00 PM
Louisiana
Abilene Christian 7:00 PM
Loyola-Chicago
USC Upstate 7:00 PM
Memphis
Alcorn State 7:00 PM
Murray State
Central Mich 7:00 PM
Northwestern
Georgia State 7:00 PM
Old Dominion
TX-Pan American 7:00 PM
Saint Louis
Ill-Chicago 7:00 PM
SMU
Texas State 7:00 PM
Stephen F Austin
SC State 7:00 PM
Texas Tech
Missouri State 7:00 PM
Tulsa
Chicago State 7:00 PM
Western Ky
Morehead State 7:00 PM
Green Bay
Northern Colorado 7:00 PM
Nebraska Omaha
Winthrop 8:00 PM
Auburn
New Mexico St 8:00 PM
Baylor
San Diego St 8:00 PM
Cincinnati
Eastern Mich 8:00 PM
Michigan State
Loyola Marymount 8:00 PM
Stanford
Incarnate Word 8:00 PM
Grand Canyon
Northeastern 9:00 PM
Cal Poly
Central Arkansas 9:00 PM
New Mexico
Howard 9:00 PM
Pepperdine
Portland 9:30 PM
UNLV
CS-Northridge 10:00 PM
Oregon
Grambling St 10:00 PM
Washington
Nevada 12/20/14 10:00 AM
Louisiana
Utah State 12/20/14 1:20 PM
Texas-El Paso
(23) Utah 12/20/14 2:30 PM
Colorado State
Western Mich 12/20/14 4:45 PM
Air Force
South Alabama 12/20/14 8:15 PM
Bowling Green
BYU 12/22/14 1:00 PM
Memphis
Marshall 12/23/14 5:00 PM
Northern Ill
Navy 12/23/14 8:30 PM
San Diego St
Central Mich 12/24/14 11:00 AM
Western Ky
Fresno State 12/24/14 7:00 PM
Rice
Western Carolina 79 FINAL
UNC-Asheville 66
(21) Miss State 66 FINAL
Louisiana 51
(25) DePaul 109 FINAL
Loyola-Chicago 84
Liberty 64 FINAL
NC State 67
Elon 2:00 PM
Campbell
Akron 3:30 PM
UCF
Richmond 3:30 PM
UNC-Wilmington
Montana 4:00 PM
Seattle
(7) Stanford 5:00 PM
Chattanooga
Florida A&M 5:30 PM
Southern U
Oklahoma 5:30 PM
(13) Duke
Savannah State 5:30 PM
Auburn
Northern Colorado 6:00 PM
South Florida
Youngstown St 6:00 PM
Robert Morris
Siena 6:00 PM
Sacred Heart
Vermont 6:00 PM
St Francis-NY
(1) South Carolina 6:00 PM
Hampton
Fla Gulf Coast 6:00 PM
Bethune-Cookman
Texas Southern 6:00 PM
Houston Baptist
Northwestern 6:00 PM
UNLV
NC A&T 6:00 PM
Appalachian St
NC Central 6:00 PM
Coastal Carolina
Drexel 6:00 PM
Quinnipiac
Cincinnati 6:00 PM
Northern Ky
Alabama State 6:00 PM
Georgia Tech
Morehead St 6:00 PM
USC Upstate
Arkansas State 6:00 PM
Kent State
American Univ 6:00 PM
Manhattan
UNC Greensboro 6:00 PM
St Bonaventure
Arkansas-Monticello 6:30 PM
Northwestern St
Prairie View 6:30 PM
Sam Houston St
McNeese State 7:00 PM
(3) Texas
Yale 7:00 PM
Wagner
Oakland 7:00 PM
TX A&M-CC
Eastern Kentucky 7:00 PM
Alabama A&M
SIU-Edwardsville 7:00 PM
Northern Ill
McMurry 7:00 PM
TX-Arlington
Portland 8:00 PM
Eastern Washington
North Texas 9:00 PM
San Francisco
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Date/Opponent Time W L Score
2014 preseason     
Aug 8 - vs. Oakland 7 pmX10-6
Aug 16 - vs. Arizona 7:30 pmX30-28
Aug 23 - at Kansas City 7 pmX30-12
Aug 28 - at Tennessee 7 pmX19-3
2014 regular season     
Sep 7 - at St. Louis NoonX34-6
Sep 14 - vs. New England NoonX30-7
Sep 21 - at New Orleans NoonX20-9
Sep 28 - vs. Atlanta 3:25 pmX41-28
Oct 2 - at Green Bay 7:25 pmX42-10
Oct 12 - vs. Detroit NoonX17-3
Oct 19 - at. Buffalo NoonX17-16
Oct 26 - at Tampa Bay NoonX19-13 ot
Nov 2 - vs. Washington NoonX29-26
Nov 9 - Bye
Nov 16 - at Chicago NoonX21-13
Nov. 23 - vs. Green Bay NoonX24-21
Nov. 30 - vs. Carolina NoonX31-13
Dec 7 - vs. NY Jets NoonX30-24 ot
Dec 14 - at Detroit 3:25 pmX16-14
Dec 21 - at Miami Noon
Dec 28 - vs. Chicago Noon

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