Mark Dayton has the edge over Democratic, Republican and Independence Party gubernatorial candidates in the latest KSTP/Survey USA poll.

The poll, conducted among 500 likely voters between June 14 and June 16, found that Dayton had a 13 point lead over DFLer Margaret Anderson Kelliher and a 17 point lead over DFL Matt Entenza in a primary match up. The numbers: Dayton got support from 39 percent of the 500 voters surveyed, Kelliher got 26 and Entenza got 22. That part of the poll had a margin of sampling error of 4.5 percent.

The poll also found that Dayton would lead among general election voters and that Republican Tom Emmer's numbers have dipped since the last SurveyUSA poll but none of those match-up show anyone with a strong lead. In those November match up numbers, Dayton would get 38 percent to Emmer's 35; Emmer would best Kelliher, with 35 percent to 33 percent, and the Republican would win over Entenza, 37 to 33 percent. That part of the poll had a margin of error of 2.5 percent, making all the potential November contests achingly close.

In all those potential general election contests, Independence Party's Tom Horner would get 12 percent.

As you serve up the polling Hot Dish, here are a few spices to add to the plate:

  • Any primary poll at this point may have some trouble catching just those who will actually turnout for a primary, given the election's August date and the expected low turnout. The win may have more to do with the candidate's ground game than his or her name recognition.
  • Still, the poll indicated that DFLer Entenza's strategy to get attention may be working. In earlier polls, he had largely languished in the single digits -- after an aggressive mail and television campaign and naming former TV anchor Robyne Robinson as his running mate, he's in the double digits in primary match ups.
  • Here are the always fascinating "crosstabs," which show how the candidates are doing with select groups of voters.
  • Check out the age of voter tab on the primary poll -- Dayton has a very strong lead among nearly all age groups but particularly seniors, who are likely to dominate the cohort of primary voters.
  • The pollster does not appear to fully calculate in how gray the primary electorate is predicted to be -- it included 56 percent DFL voters who were over 50 years old and 44 percent who were younger. Campaigns' calculations predict that well more than half of primary voters will be 65 years old or older and one campaign estimated that 80 percent of those who go to the polls will have seen at least 50 years pass by. The pollster included more under 50s that over 50s in the general election survey, which may not match reality.
  • The crosstabs also show the pollster has included among likely DFL primary voters, 22 percent of people who view the anti-tax Tea Party movement favorably and 14 percent of people who consider themselves Republicans.
  • Those details also indicate that all the DFL candidates would lead Emmer among women.
  • Just after the Republican convention at which Emmer clinched the party's nod, the SurveyUSA poll showed him with about a ten point lead over the three Democrats in the race. Now, the same poll shows the race very close.
  • Polls in the governor's race have shown inconsistent results but in all of them, Dayton looks like a strong candidate in both primary and general election contests.
  • Partisans and pollsters have questioned the methodology or results of nearly every poll that has been released this year. The SurveyUSA poll is no different.
  • As any pollster will tell you (over and over), a poll is just a snapshot of current conditions. Conditions may change before election day.