The Twins have made two significant offseason moves in free agency, so far, adding Torii Hunter on a one-year deal and, of course, pulling in Ervin Santana on a four-year, $55 million deal.

It will almost certainly push the team's payroll above $100 million for the first time since 2011 — a season, of course, that proved via a 63-99 record that spending money does not always translate to victories.

The consensus, though, is that Hunter and Santana should — at the very least — make the Twins better. The question within that consensus is to what degree the Twins (70-92 last season) will be better, and that's where things get a little more complicated.

If we look at Fan Graphs, we see that the Twins are still predicted to be the last-place team in the AL Central — Tigers first, Cleveland second, Kansas City third and the White Sox fourth.

Now, Fan Graphs win projections for 2015, as always, are a little more bunched together than the way things actually will shake out. The highest win total is 88; the lowest is 70. That's a gap of 18 wins; last year, the gap between the best and worst teams was 34 wins.

The Twins are near the bottom, though, projected to win 76 games. Fan Graphs sees them much as they saw last year's team: a good offense (projected to score the ninth-most runs in MLB in 2015 after scoring the seventh-most in 2014) with a poor pitching staff (slated to give up the third-most runs, even with the addition of Santana).

If you want to look at a national outside source, Jim Bowden from ESPN gives the Twins a B-minus grade for their offseason moves and says, "They've improved the team, though this is still a last-place club."

Those are about as disparate of sources as you're going to find — crunched numbers vs. a gut reaction, and both are saying the Twins are still the bottom-feeders in the Central.

Much of the problem, of course, is that even though the Twins are better, the rest of the division is pretty good. Detroit, even after trading Rick Porcello and likely losing Max Scherzer, has some dominant starting pitchers and a fearsome lineup. The Royals might have overachieved last year, but they overachieved all the way to the AL pennant. Cleveland quietly won 85 games last year after winning 92 the year before. And the White Sox have made the biggest splash of anyone in the division this offseason.

So what hope is there? Well, as we wrote today, there is at least hope that a rotation that hasn't finished better than 26th in starters' ERA any of the past four years could at least approach adequate in 2015 if Santana, Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco have average seasons.

There is the notion that the team was better last year than in the previous three, which was supported by the eye test, a few more wins and a simple stat: in games decided by 5 runs or more, the Twins were 21-26. That means they won their fair share of blowouts. From 2011-13, in games decided by five runs or more, they were 43-89.

And there is the notion that young players will continue to improve and perhaps get a boost of energy from a new managerial/coaching regime.

It's reasonable to think the Twins will approach .500 next season. Where that puts them in a better AL Central? Well, we'll just have to see how it plays out.