Startribune.com digital sports editor Howard Sinker used to cover the Twins and now shares season tickets with friends in Section 219 of Target Field. He blogs about baseball from the perspective of a long-time fan who loves the game, doesn’t always believe the hype and likes hearing what others think. Howard sometimes talks about sports with Cathy Wurzer on MPR's Morning Edition.

Section 219: 162 games against Milwaukee (and the hunt for pitching)

Posted by: Howard Sinker under Farm System, Twins management, Twins pitching, Packers Updated: May 31, 2013 - 8:58 AM
  • share

    email

Sweeping four games from the Brewers gives a lot of Twins fans a little extra dose of giddy because it makes up for Minnesota fans having to look up at the Packers, the Badgers (in football and basketball) and the Bucks (despite their mediocrity) in the standings of those sports. But what does it really mean? That the Twins would go 120-42 if they played only the Brewers, Astros and Marlins?

Mostly, it means that the Twins did not shrivel up and blow away after the wretched baseball they played during their 10-game losing streak -- most of it coming against teams that are in first place in their divisions (Detroit, Boston and Atlanta.) That's not meant to be an excuse or a reason losing 10 in a row, but all teams have valleys during their seasons. It's a bit like life: You're never that good (and you're probably not that bad).

After a month with a rough schedule, the Twins have games in June against teams more their speed.  The only teams they play next month with records currently above .500 are Detroit and Cleveland. So it'll take some undoing for the Twins to play poorly enough to restart the 100-loss discussion. And if they play really, really well...

With that unfinished thought in mind, here are a few quick observations:

*It's not good that the pitchers we're most excited about, currently, are Samuel Deduno and P.J. Walters. It means the 2013 rotation implants and Scott Diamond haven't given the Twins what they need, which is absolutely true with the exception of Kevin Correia. But here's my challenge to you: Go through the available free-agent pitchers from last winter and find three who would be giving the Twins a significant boost right now. You can use these rankings as a cheat sheet.

When you find three, of course, then you have to be confident in your ability that you would have chosen those three to the exclusion of all others who were available. Here are a half-dozen names that engendered varying degrees of disappointment when the Twins didn't pluck them off the market:  Edwin Jackson (1-7, 6.11), Joe Blanton (1-8, 5.94), Joe Saunders (3-5, 5.57) Brandon McCarthy (2-4, 5.00) Brett Myers (0-3, 8.02), Erik Bedard (0-2, 5.32).

[Sarcastic interlude] It's tough all over, and I'm sure all the barstool, basement and blogging GMs would have honed right in on both Scott Feldman (5-4, 2.82) and Carlos Villanueva (1-3, 3.65) as 2013 Twins starters. Absolutely sure. Yeah, I know I would have. And I would have brought back Jason Marquis (6-2, 3.70), too. [End sarcastic interlude]

In no way does this excuse what was allowed to happen to the Twins pitching in recent years. The atrophy was avoidable. But fixing a pitching staff is a tough, tough business. A look through the lists I linked to shows that.

*I'm glad the Twins stuck with Aaron Hicks. Deciding when a player is ready for the majors is as much art as science. You can hurt one player by bringing him up too soon and you can hurt another with too much time in the minors. By season's end, I think most of those who were clamoring from the Twins to return Hicks to the minors will be happy he stayed. And, yes, it may have been the organization's good fortune that nobody in Rochester would have been a reasonable replacement in center field.

I'm anticipating the debate in a couple of years over who plays center field: Hicks or Byron Buxton. That'll be fun.

*I like Pedro Florimon. Sometimes the best answer is gambling on a player that another team (Baltimore, in this case) had no use for and give him a chance. Claiming Florimon on waivers, a month after Terry Ryan replaced Bill Smith, is turning out to be a pretty sweet replacement for J.J. Hardy (and others who shall not be named).

(Update: For some interesting data on Florimon and Hardy, including some numbers that surprised me, check the comments below.)

 

Section 219: Watching the Twins (and their fans) melt down

Posted by: Howard Sinker under Farm System, Twins fans, Twins management Updated: May 24, 2013 - 9:13 AM
  • share

    email

Watching the Twins broadcasters after Thursday night's frustrating-for-all loss to Detroit was a little bit like listening to me talk about the basketball teams I used to coach -- the elementary school team in the Golden Valley/Crystal Park and Rec League and the sixth-grade B team I coached in Hopkins. After a loss, we'd chatter about the effort and look for the bright spots -- winning the fourth quarter against the tough kids from Eden Prairie or how we'd run some good offense and "did everything but make the shot."

That's how it should be when you're coaching preteens.

The Twitterverse was a bit cranky after the Twins blew that lead in Detroit.

One of my friends tweeted: "After 9 straight losses, this is where we'll find out what kind of Twins fans we are. Does that represent the kind of person we are too."

To which someone responded: "I don't think that expressing frustration and expecting those who run the Twins to do better constitutes being a bad fan."

When Bert Blyleven tweeted this afterward:

Someone responded: "Oh c'mon, Bert, the team sucks! When Molitor takes over, I hope you are the pitching coach."

And so it went. In the best of times, some true fans hold animosity against those who jump on the bandwagon, which is silly. In bad times, they sometimes talk smack at each other, which deflects from the real problem of how incredibly poorly the Twins have been playing since the start of their last homestand.

That 2-7 stretch followed by a clean sheet of defeat on the first half of the current 10-game road trip has landed the Twins solidly at the bottom of the AL Central, with the only worse record in the league belonging to pathetic Houston. In the name of looking at the present and future, I called a personal halt at the start of the season to writing about how the mistakes of the last few years had created a team for which there was little hope.

"Kansas City North" was the term I used a few times, and Twins fans are getting a first-hand look at what that means. We used to watch the Royals talk about how better stuff was ahead and then they'd get off a respectable start -- followed by a tumble to the bottom. That's exactly what's been happening to the 2013 Twins, who worked so hard to be respectable for the first five weeks that little appears to be left for the next five months.

(Quick aside: I know I'm not the only one a bit skeptical about all of the optimism being directed toward the Twins of the future who are currently playing their way through the lower minors. Hopeful, yes. Convinced, no.)

The awful starting pitching has begotten tired relief pitching. The poor pitching has created an overall sense of hopelessness, leading some fans to bicker about who should be called up from Rochester among the collection of players currently in last place in the International League.

The biggest frustration there is the perceived "Anthony Slama treatment" of pitcher Kyle Gibson by Twins management, which has called up Samuel Deduno and P.J. Walters as current stopgaps. We've heard buckets about how Gibson has thrown shutouts in two of his last four starts, one against a team with a record almost as bad as Houston's (and the other also against a sub-.500 team), and little about the other two.

In the other two, Gibson gave up nine runs and 18 hits in 7 2/3 innings against two of the league's better teams.

For the Twins to seek more consistency from Gibson is understandable.

For fans to expect (and have expected) more competence from the Twins is, too.

Section 219: Is the Twins lost weekend a sign of the slide to come?

Posted by: Howard Sinker Updated: May 20, 2013 - 9:26 AM
  • share

    email

The Twins-Red Sox series was as ugly a weekend of baseball as has been played so far this season by the home team. There were different failures in all three losses -- hitting, fielding and pitching -- and the results were pretty consistent with the ones anticipated by people who were expecting the worst from the Twins in 2013.

And the weekend ended with the Twins in their pretty much anticipated place at the bottom of the American League Central. About the only ways it could have been worse would have been if the inept Boston infielder Pedro Siriaco had been playing for the Twins or if Ham and Squints had suited up for the home team.

At least, if the latter had happened, Ham could have looked in Josh Willingham's direction and lightened the mood a bit (if everyone took it the right way) by yelling, "You're killing me, Hammer!" after one of his weekend foibles.

Willingham was the main face of the Twins' struggles over the weekend and through the homestand in which they won only two of nine games. In his last 11 games, including three at Fenway Park, Willinghams has four hits and 14 strikeouts in 40 at-bats, including the grand finale on Sunday when he struck out as a pinch hitter in the eighth inning after getting ahead in the count 3-and-0. (Gardy had tried to give Willingham the day off after an outburst of some sort during Saturday's loss but needed him after the three-hour rain delay.)

The encore -- a reverse curtain call, I guess -- was when Willingham channeled his inner Butch Huskey and poked Dustin Pedroia's fly ball over the wall with his glove in the ninth for a two-run homer that extended ther Boston lead from two runs to four.

Here it is, if you were doing other things by the time Sunday's game + rain delay + movie reached Hour Six.

I don't intend to focus the Twins problems on Willingham's struggles. He's slumping, and I assume it will pass. The entire offense shut down after the fifth inning on Friday and Oswaldo Arcia robbed Aaron Hicks of a chance to throw out the game-winning run in the 10th that night when he didn't get out of the way on a fly ball to left-center that was Hicks' to own. (If you didn't think Hicks had at least a chance to make the play, you haven't seen him throw enough.)

It was a rookie mistake on Arcia's part and one of the things we have to accept if we buy into the idea of major league training for Hicks and Arcia. I expect them to improve steadily, but it is foolish to think that improvement will come without bumps along the way -- the fly ball that Hicks mishandled on Sunday, for example.

This is what the Twins have signed on for with the bet that it will make them better major leaguers down the road. The bigger issue may be whether Gardy should relegate Willingham primarily to DH duties so Arcia can work through his defensive lapses in the same manner as Hicks.

More unexpected were the failures of the veteran players -- Willingham, Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer -- in clutch situations that could have altered the weekend outcomes. Even in the ugly seven-run loss on Saturday, which featured a terrible start by Scott Diamond, there were chances on offense that could have changed the game.

The oddest thing is that, with Mauer and Morneau, there's hardly a statistic that would predict their recent clutch failures. (The only thing that jumps out in reviewing their numbers is a valley for Mauer in "late and close" at-bats.) You figure it out, and when you have a chance, read Jim Souhan's column on Mauer's altered approach at the plate, which explains why his strikeouts have increased markedly this season while some of his other numbers are among baseball's best..

That the Twins have settled into last place should come as little shock. Forty games into the season, the biggest surprise may have been for how long they flirted with a .500 record. In retrospect, you can see how hard they had to work in order to be a game or so on either side of breaking even. There's a poll on the web site right now asking folks where they think the Twins will finish and, in the first hour of voting, 91 percent picked fourth or fifth.

The next seven games are against first-place Atlanta and division-favorite Detroit. So things could easily get worse. Whether you strap yourself in for the ride or walk away to follow something else, that's the reality we have right now.

 

 

 

Section 219: A happy surprise from the Twins

Posted by: Howard Sinker under Twins offense Updated: May 10, 2013 - 9:12 AM
  • share

    email

I felt a little bit sheepish turning away from the Twins a couple of times this week to watch the Wild flail through its playoff run, which ended up looking like of one those Twins-Yankees playoff series from the last decade. But through the miracle of the iPad and MLB At-Bat and a Twitter feed that pretty much tells me everyone -- more than I need to know sometimes -- I was able to keep up and ...

keep up and ... (searching for the right words)

keep up and (trying for some understatement here) be pretty impressed with the way things went this week. After scuffling through Detroit and Cleveland, where they played some games that looked like the games we were scared about, the Twins battered Boston in three out of four -- and came awfully close to sweeping the first-place Red Sox.

Thirty-one games into the season, the Twins are above .500. Granted they could be below .500 by the end of Saturday's game, but I'm guessing you would have given me odds if I'd been willing to bet on the Twins having a winning record after 31 games and their first road trip of substance.

Stuff is happening that we couldn't have expected, most noticeably to arrival of Oswaldo Arcia, who was supposed to be here for a quick look and has pretty much announced that he has little intention of returning to Rochester. Through 18 games, Arcia has pretty much been to hitting what Aaron Hicks hasn't been -- and his offensive leaps have allowed to Twins not to be overly concerned with the baby steps of progress and regressions shown by Hicks. I'm still convinced the Twins are doing the right thing by letting Hicks make his mistakes in Minnesota rather than Rochester.

Arcia's work in Boston obscured the Fenway troubles of Josh Willingham (hitless in his last three games in Boston) and that Trevor Plouffe has reversed a career trend and is hitting this season for a higher average (by 50 points) with men on base than with the bases empty.

Some of the confidence in Arcia should come from the way he has batted -- hitting to all fields and, according to those who know more than I do, making adjustments that you wouldn't expect from such a young player. "Pace" is a tricky thing, but I am OK with him striking out 140 times in 500 at-bats (his current rate) in return for a combination of power and smarts at the plate.

But the point here isn't to go too deep with numbers or figure out why things have been happening. It's much simpler: The Twins are 16-15 and not close to the disaster that lots of people were anticipating. Remember, after 31 games last year, the Twins were 8-23, and the year before they were 12-19 -- and would be 12-27 before winning another game.

To compensate for watching the Wild, I'm going Target Field tonight (and Saturday and Sunday, too). Yes, I'm more in than I thought I'd be.

 

 

 

Section 219: Showcasing bad trends in another Twins loss

Posted by: Howard Sinker Updated: May 7, 2013 - 9:40 AM
  • share

    email

Well, Monday night was 4 hours and 44 minutes investment in Twins baseball that didn't pay off with a victory. It was an exciting (if flawed) game that unraveled at the very end, owing to the off-balance throw Jared Burton didn't need to make in the 11th inning and the follow-up two-out hits by Boston's No. 8 and 9 batters that ended the 6-5 loss.

It was also a game the Twins shouldn't have lost and a game that continued a couple of painful trends.

For the seventh straight game, the Twins bullpen was required to work three innings or more. Not since a week ago Sunday, when Kevin Correia shut down Texas, has a Twins starter made it to the seventh -- and that takes a toll, either because of the stress it puts on key relievers or because of the relievers that need to be used to keep key relievers as fresh as possible.

Simply stated, the Twins need more innings from their starters more often.

Vance Worley continued pitching poorly, talking afterward about he had command until he "started to elevate," in his words, in his final two innings. The biggest problem is that his final two innings were the fifth and sixth, during which the Red Sox got five hits in seven at-bats -- setting the stage for the bullpen needing to work 5 2/3 innings. Worley has lasted six innings in only two of his seven starts and has a 6.95 ERA to show for it.

According to La Velle's postgame blog, Worley appeared surprised that Gardy took him out after starting the sixth by giving up two singles with David Ortiz coming to bat. He shouldn't have been.

The Twins frittered away three significant chances to score more runs. The most notable was in the first inning, when they scored two and had the bases loaded with one out before Oswaldo Arcia struck out chasing bad pitches and Aaron Hicks followed with another strikeout. So much for having the Boston ace, Clay Buchholz, on the edge of an early knockout.

In the fifth, the Twins scored only one run after Joe Mauer started the inning with a double and went to third on Josh Willingham's single. A sacrifice fly by Morneau -- whose slugging percentage right now (.361) is four points higher than Joltin' Jamey Carroll's -- was followed by a Chris Parmelee's ground out and a fly out by Trevor Plouffe, who got a  second chance after an error by Mike Napoli on a comically butchered foul pop-up.

The capper was the seventh. Brian Dozier and Mauer reached base before rookie reliever Alex Wilson struck out Willingham and, after being mocked for his control deficiencies by the Twins' TV crew, Andrew Miller struck out Morneau and Parmelee.

In the meantime, the Twins' 3-0 lead gradually turned into a 5-4 deficit before Dozier's ninth-inning home run.

Quick stat: The Twins are 12th in the American League in runners left in scoring position per game -- while the three teams behind them (Boston, Detroit and Oakland) are among the top five in runs scored. (The Twins are 12th in runs scored.)

Finally, the Twins were also done-in Monday night because of the philosophical decision to have more offense on their bench, which resulted in Ryan Doumit replacing Willingham in left field after Gardy's decision to use a pinch-runner.  A "plus" left fielder could have tracked down Drew's game-winning double, which clanged low off the Green Monster, but it would have been almost as much of a highlight play as the excellent diving catch Parmelee made in right field earlier in the inning.

In the bigger picture, having an extra bat on the bench will outweigh the occasional awkward defensive alignments that Gardy's late-game moves with create. We can debate that. But I'll contend the Twins are showing bigger problems than having to put Doumit in the outfield once in a while, including Doumit's .198 batting average.

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

Connect with twitterConnect with facebookConnect with Google+Connect with PinterestConnect with PinterestConnect with RssfeedConnect with email newsletters

ADVERTISEMENT