Ben Goessling's Vikings-Giants preview and prediction: Who wins and why?

When: Noon Saturday, U.S. Bank Stadium

TV, radio: Ch. 9, 100.3-FM

Line: Vikings by 4½

Possible playoff preview: The Giants are currently the NFC's No. 6 seed at 8-5-1; if the Vikings slipped to No. 3 in the conference standings, or if they remained at No. 2 and the Giants dropped to No. 7, the two teams would face off again in three weeks on wild card weekend at U.S. Bank Stadium. Their Christmas Eve matchup, then, could provide both sides with valuable information they'll use again soon.

Moss (and Johnson?) in sight for Jefferson: Justin Jefferson has 1,623 receiving yards through 14 games; he would break Randy Moss' franchise single-season records with 10 yards on Saturday. He needs 341 to match Calvin Johnson's NFL record for receiving yards in a season with 1,964. Jefferson has three games in which to do it, but could make it an even more impressive accomplishment if he does it in two, since Johnson had only a 16-game regular season.

NFL's top two rookie coaches square off: When Kevin O'Connell was a senior at San Diego State, Brian Daboll (then the Jets' quarterbacks coach) worked him out before the 2008 NFL draft. The two coaches have the best records of the 10 head coaches hired before this season. "Just across the board, I've always had so much respect at each spot that he's been at," O'Connell said of Daboll. "I think the world of him. He's a tremendous leader of men, and schematically, he's a good coach."

Vikings' offensive line vs. Giants DT Dexter Lawrence: The former first-round pick has 6½ sacks this season; he'll line up at nose tackle over center Austin Schlottmann (starting in place of the injured Garrett Bradbury) in the Giants' 3-4 base, and bump out to line up between right guard Ed Ingram and right tackle Brian O'Neill when the Giants are in the nickel package. Wherever he is, his size and strength will present a big challenge for the group.

Vikings' defense vs. Giants RB Saquon Barkley: The 2018 Offensive Rookie of the Year is healthy after several years of injuries and enjoying a featured role in Daboll's offense, where he's run for 1,170 yards and caught 47 passes for another 294 yards. Barkley has accounted for 30.5% of the Giants' yards from scrimmage, and has 16 runs of at least 15 yards this season. If the Vikings can control him, they'll go a long way toward winning the game.

-47.34: Expected points added by the Giants' run defense this season. The total is the third-worst in the league, ahead of only Green Bay and Detroit.

They can take advantage of a woeful Giants run front to set Dalvin Cook up for a solid day and put Kirk Cousins in advantageous down-and-distance situations where he can test the Giants' secondary downfield. On defense, the Vikings will need to be disciplined enough to keep Barkley from finding gaps for big runs, and win their matchups against a pass protection unit that's allowed 44 sacks this season.

Their defensive line can take advantage of Bradbury's absence to keep the Vikings' run game under control, find a way to minimize Jefferson's impact and pressure Cousins into the kinds of mistakes that could turn the game. The Giants will likely try to get Barkley going and control the clock; they're not built to get into a shootout with the Vikings, so they'll try to manage the game in an effort to keep Minnesota's offense from taking over.

The Vikings will come out aiming for a fast start after last week's catastrophic first half against the Colts, and they're set up to do it against the Giants' defense. As much as the Vikings' legitimacy has been questioned, the Giants are 8-5-1 despite being outscored by 25 points this season. In what should be a charged environment for their final regular-season home game, the Vikings will put the Giants away late. Vikings 30, Giants 21