Paul Douglas: 'Crippling' winter storm PM Hours: 8-12" Likely, with a Potential for 15-20"

The winter ranking scale I borrowed from my favorite college professor goes from nuisance to plowable, then crippling. The more I look at the maps and models the more I'm thinking this will be a crippling storm for much of Minnesota. Every model run (both NOAA and ECMWF) trends snowier over time. We'll get a white Christmas. Very white.

December 23, 2020 at 3:54PM
12z 3km NAM model Total Snow by Thursday morning (NOAA and pivotalweather.com/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Quite a Pile. The very latest high-resolution NAM model from NOAA prints out 15-20" of snow for the immediate metro; the axis of heaviest snow running from Mankato to the Twin Cities to Duluth. Plowable, bordering on crippling.

06z ECMWF Snowfall Prediction (weatherbell.com/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

European Model. Pass the smelling salts. ECMWF also predicts close to 20" for parts of the metro. Just to be clear: the European model was first to pump up the predicted snowfall amounts; by my count this is the 6th model run in a row forecasting over a foot of snow for the metro area. Wow.

Winter Storm Severity Index (NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

NOAA: Major to Extreme Impacts. Factoring winds, ice and blizzard conditions developing this afternoon the National Weather Service is raising the possibility of extreme impacts, especially west metro, roughly Mankato to Elk River. Travel may become treacherous to impossible during the afternoon and evening hours. Take it easy out there.

about the writer

about the writer

Paul Douglas

Columnist

Paul Douglas is a nationally-respected meteorologist, with 40 years of broadcast television and radio experience. He provides daily print and online weather services for the Star Tribune.

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